Republican nomination unlikely. Millions(11%) would vote Paul(Indepentent run)

[Scott Wilson]

People need to be realistic.

A third party run would be extremely difficult, it would require massive donations and intense grassroots work.

The Republican nomination is now a pipe dream. Huckabee is going to get more votes with Romney stepping back and McCain is going to get more votes with Romney suspending his campaign.

Ron may get a few more votes but be realistic please. Huckabee won Tennessee over Romney and McCain. Both McCain and Romney received far more votes than Paul. McCain only needs about 500 more delegates. Huckabee needs about 1000. Ron Paul needs about 1100 to win. You seriously believe Ron is going to make a come back with media bias and peoples perception that he is soft on terror? No way.

Even a brokered convention would not throw the bone Ron's way, not with so few delegates.

Beating a dead horse is futile, adapting to current circumstances is essential.

Either

1. Ron stays in, continues to tour and speak. Picks up a few more votes in primaries but ultimately does not win the nomination. If it goes this route the grassroots must alter their approach and get some fresh ideas in action. Community newsletters, signs with constitutional slogans or lessons, promote his book in the real world etc.

2. Ron runs as an independent, his support grows exponentially and grassroots activity picks up across the nation once again (in the post primary/caucus states). Who knows what can happen. This avenue also risks Ron losing his seat in Texas.


Ron's seat in Texas ought not be the deciding factor as Ron is not a messiah. He is simply a man who has been the focal point of an massive restore the constitution movement.

Anything can happen but we have to be realistic. To believe that Ron can win a brokered convention, in my opinion, is extremely optimistic. Many people go to Vegas optimistic too but it is much wiser to be realistic when setting out a plan.

 

[Russellk30]

No Third Party will ever win.

Thank you God, for you have shown me the light. Alright, everybody get back to posting and let there be no mention of third parties ever again. God himself has spoken and we all know the proper path to take.

I am glad there are so many omnipresent individuals around, for what would I do without the presence of such insight. I would be lost. At least we know that the two party system will forever be present in American politics.

We always knew that the “left right paradigm" forced upon us by the MSM was correct, and now it has been confirmed. God is now pleased. Let us continue are grazing, for the Shepard protects us from all evil.

 

[kutibah]

If Ron Paul can get 15% as an Independent in the polls, HE IS IN THE DEBATES. This is ALL that would be required to garner him the support of a possible 3rd Party Victory in 2008. People will notice that we now have 3 instead of the normal 2 candidates in the debates and wonder why the hell he's there. His message will be heard by millions. And since we're only at 11% right now, that's VERY ACHIEVABLE!

 

[nodope0695]

"NO THIRD PARTY!!!! GET OFF IT!!!! MOVE ON, LOSER. GET PAST THE IDEA. WHAT PART OF "NO INTENTIONS" DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND??? GET ON THE BUS, OR STAY AT THE BUS STOP, BUT SHIT OR GET OFF THE POT."

I was unaware that "no intentions" was the same as "will not." Paul hasn’t made any definite plans; so quit acting like you know his plans. All I ask is that keep your options open.

I live in Washington State and I will be voting for Ron Paul at tomorrow’s Republican caucus. I will try to get him the nomination, but I sure don’t expect that it will happen.

By the way, how many people have you convinced to support Paul? With an attitude like yours, I wouldn't be surprised if you've driven people away.

As a matter of fact, I've convinced 4 for sure, and possibly two more. And those are the people I work with. I plan on getting more tomorrwo when we go out door to door.

As to the third party thing, it does us no good to keep harping on it. Our plan is to get to the convention. There are 20 more states to go, and almost all of the delegates are up for grabs, especially now that Romney is out. Ron Paul is a member of the GOP, not the NeoCon GOP, the BASE GOP. Like it or not, that is the way it is. Ron Paul is also a sitting congressman in the GOP. He is running for reelection IN the GOP. It would be political suicide if he went third part, especially now. And YES, "NO INTENTIONS" means NO. I can't wrap my head around why that is so hard for other people to, well...wrap THEIR heads around. You're falling into the MSM trap of pushing for a third party. That is exactly what they, and the NeoCons want to happen.

Do you know your history? Third parties have NEVER been given a fair chance, NEVER. You think we're marginalized now? We'd be completely, and totally INVISIBLE if Ron went third party. I don't claim to know what Ron's intentions are, but I'm not blind either. Those who don't know their history are doomed to repeat it.... Do some research on third party runs...Did you know Ron Paul ran as a Libertarian back in 1988 before you joined the Revolution? I didn't. I'd never heard of the dude. Perhaps you knew of him, but I was too young back then, and smoking too much pot to have given a shit. But I do remember Bush Sr. and Mike Dukakis because they were all over the news.

My question to you and the other third party pushers is this: What do you hope to achieve in a third party run?

If Ron runs third party, the Democrats win. If Ron drops out after the convention, and McCain get the nomination, the Democrats win. Either way, the Democrats win. BUT, if Ron gets to the convention, and speaks to that crowd, there is no way McCain will get the required 51% for the nomination. That room is going to be full of base GOPers and conservatives who don't like McCain, and might vote for RP on a second ballot. This is what I bleive is the campaing's plan. And I think there is hope for it if we can just simply focus on ONE plan, and quit throwing all this third part stuff...its defeatist and unrealistic, and it would be just plain stupid from a tactical standpoint.

This is a game wether we like it or not. We've got to play it on the field, not from the parking lot where the third party tailgaters hang out.

 

[kutibah]

As a matter of fact, I've convinced 4 for sure, and possibly two more. And those are the people I work with. I plan on getting more tomorrwo when we go out door to door.

As to the third party thing, it does us no good to keep harping on it. Our plan is to get to the convention. There are 20 more states to go, and almost all of the delegates are up for graps, especially now that Romney is out. Ron Paul is a member of the GOP, not the NeoCon GOP, the BASE GOP. Like it or not, that is the way it is. Ron Paul is also a sitting congressman in the GOP. He is running for reelection IN the GOP. It would be political suicide if he went third part, especially now. And YES, "NO INTENTIONS" means NO. I can't wrap my head around why that is so hard for other people to, well...wrap THEIR heads around. You're falling into the MSM trap of pushing for a third party. That is exactly what they, and the NeoCons want to happen.

Do you know your history? Third parties have NEVER been given a fair chance, NEVER. You think we're marginalized now? We'd be completely, and totally INVISIBLE if Ron went third party. I don't claim to know what Ron's intentions are, but I'm not blind either. Those who don't know their history are doomed to repeat it.... Do some research on third party runs...Did you know Ron Paul ran as a Libertarian back in 1988 before you joined the Revolution? I didn't. I'd never heard of the dude. Perhaps you knew of him, but I was too young back then, and smoking too much pot to have given a shit. But I do remember Bush Sr. and Mike Dukakis because they were all over the news.

My question to you and the other third party pushers is this: What do you hope to achieve in a third party run?

If Ron runs third party, the Democrats win. If Ron drops out after the convention, and McCain get the nomination, the Democrats win. Either way, the Democrats win. BUT, if Ron gets to the convention, and speaks to that crowd, there is no way McCain will get the required 51% for the nomination. That room is going to be full of base GOPers and conservatives who don't like McCain, and might vote for RP on a second ballot. This is what I bleive is the campaing's plan. And I think there is hope for it if we can just simply focus on ONE plan, and quit throwing our all this third part stuff...its defeatist and unrealistic, and it would be just plain stupid from a tactical standpoint.

This is a game wether we like it or not. We've got to play it on the field, not from the parking lot where the third party tailgaters hang out.

He will be in the Presidential Debates as a 3rd Party if he can get 15% in the polls. Current polls had him at 11% with an Independent run. This is all that would be needed to capture the American attention.

 

[Xenophage]

Paul CANNOT run 3rd Party or Independent.

If he does, there is NO way he can seek the Republican nomination again, and I think he has an exceptionally good chance if he takes another shot at it in 4 years, or if his son does. Meanwhile, a 3rd Party run is doomed to failure. I'd support him if he did it, but I know he couldn't win.

The best thing to do is focus on congressional and senate victories until we get a shot at the presidency again. Try to take over the republican party locally!

 

[humanic]

Defeatists? Do you have a difficult time reading words when there are too many of them in a row? If anything, I am an optimist. I m glad to be part of this movement, I have hope for it and I want to see it continue. Since when does anti-republican = defeatist?

I think everybody here will agree the current Republican Party is a barrier to the ideals of small government pro liberty leaning individuals. You can try to change it if you want, but I hope you have a plan “B” because you chances are not looking too great.

You can ignore facts, reason and the ideas of others if you want, but it will lead to your own little personal echo chambers where everything you hear and see is "correct" and everybody else is stupid. That would effectively be the end of your intellectual growth.

New ideas are not always right, but neither are old ones. You probably already put me on your ignore list though, so I guess there isn’t much of a point in responding. Have fun in you echo chamber.

QFT (Quoted For Truth). As of right now I am not personally convinced that an indy run is wise, nor am I convinced that it is unwise. What I am convinced of is that refusing to engauge in rational, civilized discourse is counter-productive to a movement that is supposed to be on facts and logic. One of the central beliefs of the man whose ideas we are all united here in support of is that "the best way for us to spread our message... is through example and persuasion." Calling people names and/or dismissing a topic outright in response to someone (with the same core goals as you) making a sincere, honest, rational argument is disrespectful, childish, foolish, hypocritical, and no substitute for actually articulating why they ought to adopt your view instead of the one they currently hold. To those of you doing so: please stop.

 

[familydog]

Maybe we should all consider what Ron Paul wants. Not what we want.

 

[Russellk30]

QFT

As of right now I am not personally convinced that an indy run is wise, nor am I convinced that it is unwise. What I am convinced of is that refusing to engauge in rational, civilized discourse is counter-productive to a movement that is supposed to be on facts and logic. One of the central beliefs of the man whose ideas we are all united here in support of is that "the best way for us to spread our message... is through example and persuasion." Calling people names and/or dismissing a topic outright in response to someone (with the same core goals as you) making a sincere, honest, rational argument is disrespectful, childish, foolish, hypocritical, and no substitute for actually articulating why they ought to adopt your view instead of the one they currently hold.

I agree 100%. It is difficult to make a point when those around actively dismiss the topic instead of engaging in thoughtful discussion. One of the reasons I became interested in Paul is that both the media and virtually all politicians irrationally dismissed him. That type of behavior is very ineffective if ones goal is to get others to agree with you. Absolute dismissal of a reasonable discussion is a sure sign someone’s motives should be questioned.

 

[Russellk30]

Maybe we should all consider what Ron Paul wants. Not what we want.

That is the plan. We cannot make him act otherwise. Do you know what Ron Paul wants? I think he wants to promote liberty as effectively as possible. Beyond that I don’t think any of us can accurately guess what his plans are.

 

[fedup100]

Has Ron even gotten !% of the Total population to vote for him in the primary?

How is he going to get attention in a Presedenatial NAtional Campaign with no party to support him, and absolutely no "requirement" from the parties to have him in debates...

I'm just curious, but why are you here?

 

[familydog]

That is the plan. We cannot make him act otherwise. Do you know what Ron Paul wants? I think he wants to promote liberty as effectively as possible. Beyond that I don’t think any of us can accurately guess what his plans are.

I can't say for sure what he wants. But he has said he doesn't want to be a spoiler and he won't run as a third party.

 

[Russellk30]

Paul CANNOT run 3rd Party or Independent.

If he does, there is NO way he can seek the Republican nomination again, and I think he has an exceptionally good chance if he takes another shot at it in 4 years, or if his son does. Meanwhile, a 3rd Party run is doomed to failure. I'd support him if he did it, but I know he couldn't win.

The best thing to do is focus on congressional and senate victories until we get a shot at the presidency again. Try to take over the republican party locally!

Though I agree with your argument, I do not think Ron Paul will be up for running for president in four years. I hate to say it, but he is not exactly young and sprite anymore. As far as taking over the Republican Party, are you happy with our current two party system? Do you think it promotes political Dialogue?

Last time the freedom movement “took over” the Republican Party absolutely nothing was accomplished. The Republican Party only plays lip service to satisfy the libertarian wing, but when was the last time the size of the federal government was reduced? The freedom movement within the Republican Party is what has always been doomed to failure.

You may say that a third party run is doomed to failure, but to continue to fight against the establishment within the organization of the establishment is what I see as "doomed to failure." That point is debatable. What is becoming less debatable is whether or not Ron will win the nomination this season.

 

[Russellk30]

I can't say for sure what he wants. But he has said he doesn't want to be a spoiler and he won't run as a third party.

I doubt he would be a spoiler. He would take much of the democratic and independent vote as well. If anything, he would be a spoiler for both parties after taking the Whitehouse!

He has also said the he never completely rules anything out. Instead, he reacts to the situation as it presents itself. Once he starts to see that over 10% of the electorate already supports him, all bets are off.

 

[MN Patriot]

No Third Party will ever win.

Wrong. Jesse Ventura won the election for governor of Minnesota in 1998. It IS possible, and with McCain and Hillary stinking up the ballots, Ron will look really good to many people. All he needs is 34% of the vote, or less if Nader or Bloomberg runs.

 

[EvilNight]

We'll deal with this topic when and if Ron loses the GOP nom.

It's impossible to discuss a 3rd party run with a die hard, starry eyed republican who can't accept emotionally or rationally the cancer killing the party he grew up with. I'm taking people here at their word (and with a TON of skepticism, and that includes when Ron Paul says it) that Ron's platform is the real core republican platform, AND that there's enough of the party there worth saving. I'll support him whatever he does, but I only support the Republicans so long as Ron is in it, and tells me to, and that's with reservations. I don't forget and forgive what Bushco has done so easily. The Republicans will have to work for years and prove they are sincere with real progress before I'll ever think of voting for another Republican other than Ron Paul. Unless they want to field someone else with his kind of voting record (good luck with that).

Ron has a shot at an Independent run. He's got fantastic odds of besting the 15% Independent requirement and getting into all of the debates. An Independent run will also appeal to those who can't get over the republican stench of Bushco coming from Washington right now. Many voters will not vote republican on principle. If it ends up McWar vs Artillery, there's no way in hell Ron can lose that race. He'll annihilate both of them.

If Ron wants to continue his message, an independent run will let him do it and gain him far more media attention than he has now. Perot damn near pulled it off. If anyone else is nominated we know damn well they are rotten and not to be trusted.

If Ron does win as an Independent he can then be gracious and go back to the Republican party if that's his choice. I somehow doubt they'll turn him away - at least, not the real conservative ones we keep hearing about so often.

For those who think independent runs don't work or are impossible - you've obviously slept through Perot, Ventura, 2500 elected Libertarians (and rising), etc. Every single election cycle the potency and popularity of non-Republican, non-Democrat politics increases. It'll happen, and you should be glad. That's the only way we will ever get true election reform in this country. We should have at least three parties so that when two of them lose their mind (see the last 16 years) the third can keep the others honest. I'd like to see five.

If Ron loses the nom, I hope he grabs Kucinich or Obama as his VP for the Independent run. It'll gain him more votes than he'll ever lose from republicans who won't vote outside the party. We don't have time for that bullshit false dichotomy of liberal vs conservative this time. We have REAL PROBLEMS that need to be solved RIGHT NOW. We can't afford to wait four more years. Neither can Ron, he's getting old.

 

[Tayo]

EvilNight...Awesome post!

 

[cindy25]

his congressional seat is not a factor. it will be decided one way or another on March 4th in the Texas primary.

if Obama wins a 3rd party is a waste of time; he will win, the economy will tank and be another Carter.

but if its Hillary vs McCain then McCain could win, so an indy run is needed to stop McCain.