Remember: Iowa is Meaningless

[bobbyw24]

The media for days told us that Iowa doesn't matter. So go on and continue the fight

Romney's greatest threat in New Hampshire may be Ron Paul, but Paul is only a threat to Romney in the Granite State if he carries Iowa; thus, there's a huge potential benefit for Romney to spend time and money in Iowa. The expectations for Paul in Iowa (dark green) have surged in recent weeks -- a few days ago he peaked at over 50 percent to win. The higher the expectations are of victory, the larger the costs of defeat. Anything short of an Iowa victory would cause a massive downward shift in momentum for Paul.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/making-big-bets-iowa-gingrich-perry-not-romney-151407798.html

 

[Travlyr]

The Revolution goes forward anyway... no matter what. A President Ron Paul would keep it peaceful. Putting Ron Paul in the White House is the right thing to do.

 

[bobbyw24]

Let's do it

 

[Brick-in-the-Wall]

The title of this thread should be "Why Ron Paul MUST Win."

 

[sailingaway]

At this point they are doing what can be done in the time left. Raising expectations gives even the best result less impact.

 

[Anti Federalist]

As far as the GOP nomination part of RP for President 2012, yes, this will all be decided on Tuesday.

A second or third place finish behind Romney is worthless.

Romney in first in Iowa will go on to a blowout in NH, and then the rest of the GOP, who are only interested in getting rid of Obama, will get in line in SC and FL and he'll have it stitched up by March.

Talk of brokered conventions and delegates and proportional delegates is all just pie in the sky nonsense that will mean as much as did in 2008, which is to say, nothing.

Tuesday night and we'll see where you fans really stand.

 

[bobbyw24]

As far as the GOP nomination part of RP for President 2012, yes, this will all be decided on Tuesday.

A second or third place finish behind Romney is worthless.

Romney in first in Iowa will go on to a blowout in NH, and then the rest of the GOP, who are only interested in getting rid of Obama, will get in line in SC and FL and he'll have it stitched up by March.

Talk of brokered conventions and delegates and proportional delegates is all just pie in the sky nonsense that will mean as much as did in 2008, which is to say, nothing.

Tuesday night and we'll see where you fans really stand.

+1

 

[Xenophage]

I agree that Iowa is essential. A win in Iowa doesn't tie up the nomination (in fact, the odds would probably still be against a Paul win) but anything less than a win probably dooms the campaign.

I hope I'm wrong about that, but it really seems that way.

Anyway, I also think we are going to win. I think we'll outperform the polls by a few points and Paul will see around a 25% vote total.

 

[PastaRocket848]

i don't agree at all.. and frankly i think this kind of talk is destructive to the cause. there are, and always have been, 3 tickets out of iowa. it's not different this time just because ron is in the race. would a second place finish hurt our chances in NH? sure. would be probably come in second in NH regardless of our final position in IA? yes. it's not like if we win iowa we have some great chance of winning NH, mitt is up 20+ points there. we'll take second in NH barring any major movement between now and then. any thought that a win in iowa will result in media-driven "momentum" that could propel us to a win in NH is "pie in the sky". the media will never, ever, give us an inch. if we're going to win it will be in spite of the media, not because of them.

so, in reality, i doubt that there would be much difference at all in first or second, save for the delegate count. any suggestion to the contrary would be predicated on the idea that the outcome will effect NH, which i simply don't see happening.

we have proportional delegate allotment. we can come in 2nd in every state in the union and still win the nomination. the world doesn't revolve around Iowa, certainly not as much as the media would have us believe. this is a 50-state race.

 

[One Last Battle!]

As far as the GOP nomination part of RP for President 2012, yes, this will all be decided on Tuesday.

A second or third place finish behind Romney is worthless.

Romney in first in Iowa will go on to a blowout in NH, and then the rest of the GOP, who are only interested in getting rid of Obama, will get in line in SC and FL and he'll have it stitched up by March.

Talk of brokered conventions and delegates and proportional delegates is all just pie in the sky nonsense that will mean as much as did in 2008, which is to say, nothing.

Tuesday night and we'll see where you fans really stand.

+1

 

[Mr. Rapp]

I totally agree with Anti Federalist. Iowa is a must win or Romney will sweep the next four states.

 

[bobbyw24]

Git er done y'all

 

[veto]

Just hoping for the best

I am not 100% sure if it was a good idea for Paul to go back to Texas of course they're could be a lot more to the story. What I am hoping for is that they are a lot of cross of voters Tuesday. The msm is pretty much calling Iowa now for Mittens.

 

[ProBlue33]

I hope the people in Iowa making speeches, can sway those trying to stop Romney that Ron Paul is there best choice to do that, not Santorum.
The people in Iowa that are trying to stop Romney are stupid, the only way to do it is encourage them to vote Ron Paul, not send them to Santorum.
Strategic idiots.

 

[muh_roads]

..

By David Rothschild

 

[Oukvekpwv]

i don't agree at all.. and frankly i think this kind of talk is destructive to the cause. there are, and always have been, 3 tickets out of iowa. it's not different this time just because ron is in the race. would a second place finish hurt our chances in NH? sure. would be probably come in second in NH regardless of our final position in IA? yes. it's not like if we win iowa we have some great chance of winning NH, mitt is up 20+ points there. we'll take second in NH barring any major movement between now and then. any thought that a win in iowa will result in media-driven "momentum" that could propel us to a win in NH is "pie in the sky". the media will never, ever, give us an inch. if we're going to win it will be in spite of the media, not because of them.

so, in reality, i doubt that there would be much difference at all in first or second, save for the delegate count. any suggestion to the contrary would be predicated on the idea that the outcome will effect NH, which i simply don't see happening.

we have proportional delegate allotment. we can come in 2nd in every state in the union and still win the nomination. the world doesn't revolve around Iowa, certainly not as much as the media would have us believe. this is a 50-state race.

+1

 

[eduardo89]

How will delegates be apportioned in NH? Will there be a threshold you need to meet to get delegates? Say it's 33% Mitt, 28% Ron, 19% Huntsman, 8% Gingrich, 5% Perry, 3% Bachmann, 2% Santorum. How will they give out the 12 delegates?

33% Mitt -> 4
28% Ron -> 3
19% Jon -> 2
8% Newt -> 1

That's only 10 delegates. How would they give out the remaining 2? Yes I know in the grand scheme of things it's insignificant, but it's driving me nuts to know!

 

[One Last Battle!]

i don't agree at all.. and frankly i think this kind of talk is destructive to the cause. there are, and always have been, 3 tickets out of iowa. it's not different this time just because ron is in the race. would a second place finish hurt our chances in NH? sure. would be probably come in second in NH regardless of our final position in IA? yes. it's not like if we win iowa we have some great chance of winning NH, mitt is up 20+ points there. we'll take second in NH barring any major movement between now and then. any thought that a win in iowa will result in media-driven "momentum" that could propel us to a win in NH is "pie in the sky". the media will never, ever, give us an inch. if we're going to win it will be in spite of the media, not because of them.

so, in reality, i doubt that there would be much difference at all in first or second, save for the delegate count. any suggestion to the contrary would be predicated on the idea that the outcome will effect NH, which i simply don't see happening.

we have proportional delegate allotment. we can come in 2nd in every state in the union and still win the nomination. the world doesn't revolve around Iowa, certainly not as much as the media would have us believe. this is a 50-state race.

If we lose Iowa, we have basically no chance of winning another state until Nevada. In that time, Romney will win the vote from the "Votes for winning candidates" crowd, the media will declare the race over, and that'll be that. Alternatively, someone else will win South Carolina and it will be a "Two man race" between Romney and someone else.

In neither situation do we have a chance in hell of coming off with a win. With Iowa won, we could get away with not winning New Hampshire (though it would at least be possible) and still win the nomination thanks to later states. Without it, we become irrelevant.

 

[Xenophage]

How will delegates be apportioned in NH? Will there be a threshold you need to meet to get delegates? Say it's 33% Mitt, 28% Ron, 19% Huntsman, 8% Gingrich, 5% Perry, 3% Bachmann, 2% Santorum. How will they give out the 12 delegates?

33% Mitt -> 4
28% Ron -> 3
19% Jon -> 2
8% Newt -> 1

That's only 10 delegates. How would they give out the remaining 2? Yes I know in the grand scheme of things it's insignificant, but it's driving me nuts to know!

In Alaska two delegates were always reserved for the chairman of the state GOP and one other official dude. They always get to go by default and they are unpledged to any candidate. Sucks, I know.

 

[KramerDSP]

So we all quit en masse if we don't win Iowa? I know nobody said that, but there is a long road ahead. No one ever said it would be easy. There are more debates, and eventually, buyers remorse will sink in from the remaining states if Iowa, NH, etc. don't go the way we hoped. I think there's a lot of football left to be played, and I hope that people don't go running for the hills at the first true obstacles that come our way. I agree though that not winning in Iowa would test the mettle of the base and separate the wheat from the chaff. I, for one, am here for the long haul.