Reading polls and how to win NH

It's great to learn from mistakes, learn how to win, and all of that. This should have been done long ago.

but it wasn't, or not effectively enough. so bradley is repeating and updating his valuable advice in the few hours left to change things in NH.

Please explain to me how posting these poll numbers is supposed to help us win tomorrow. And explain how it doesn't demoralize people the day before votes are cast.

he explained that several times already - by looking at the "cross-tabs" one can identify the areas of concern to NH voters (e.g. integrity of character) and emphasize those aspects as opposed to less relevant aspects (e.g. pro-life).
 
Bradley-

thanks for posting and keep it up...perhaps some of us will learn something.

What I find odd about the data is that when we look at specific issues, (at least on the republican side), the data suggests Dr. Pauls positions are spot on with the majority! However, he is also relatively high in the dislike catagory. Does this suggest that A) they don't know/understand his posittions ? OR B) They like the message and not the messenger(s)?

I often wonder about this when I read the redouble your efforts- or get out there and canvas comments. Both of those things can be beneficial or detrimental, depending on how it is done.

Any thoughts on that?
 
What I find odd about the data is that when we look at specific issues, (at least on the republican side), the data suggests Dr. Pauls positions are spot on with the majority! However, he is also relatively high in the dislike catagory. Does this suggest that A) they don't know/understand his posittions ? OR B) They like the message and not the messenger(s)?

I think it is a combination of A and B. However unfairly, Paul has the whiff of a crank around him, whether it is Dr. No, etc. For the new converts, crossovers, unorthodox people, that is ok, but it is a lot to swallow for people to say, yeah, this guy that has been dismissed as a loon is our new leader.

That has happened in the past - Reagan was dismissed as a loon, and had been a Democrat until age 51. But as good as Paul is, Reagan was a virtually unparalleled messenger, the "Great Communicator", so this helped him a lot.

Me, I think Paul could express his anti-war positions a little better so they don't sound like naive pacifism - again, I understand his points, but sometimes the presentation can sound like this, and maybe lay off the neocon scolding/blame laying which sometimes serves to draw conspiracy theorists and accusations of anti-Semitism, again however unfairly.

Generally speaking, the most positive aspects of his campaign have been the most positive aspects - individual freedoms, the greatness of our Constitution and American traditions, etc. Reagan expressed these themes supremely well in a manner that created a whole new generation of Republican voters - Southern populists, Northern working class ethnics, etc.
 
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Huh? Every candidate is pushing the "Stands up for his beliefs" schtick. You don't think McCain supporters believe they're voting for a consistent guy? They damn sure do. Right now each candidate's supporters are telling people the same thing, "Our guy is principled and stands up for his beliefs!" We NEED comparison ads, if "stands up for his beliefs" is an important factor.

Let me clarify your post: "every candidate [doing well] is pushing..."

It's too late for negative and comparison ads in NH. It's been too late for a while now. If you want to do them in a Super Tuesday state, then hurray. You have to end on an exclusively positive note to give people a reason to vote FOR Dr. Paul, not just against another candidate.
 
I've got a 15 phone bank making automated calls to New Hampshire for the last 3 days... 65,000 calls in 3 days, 12 hours per day. Each of those calls runs a specific message, based on the location of the voter as determined by their PHONE PREFIX, which gives the location of the polls and depending on their REGISTRATION a specific, brief message.

THANK YOU!!!!
 
Bradley in DC -

you mentioned that the crosstabs are where the useful data is has anyone gone forward with putting together a list of key parameters of attributes/characteristics that voters have keyed on as being critical. For example you had mentioned "stands up for their beliefs" as a key variable. It might be useful to go through an analysis of all prior cross tab polls from Iowa to know to come up with some key talking points, then start up a grass roots effort to disseminate those talking points and how Dr. Paul scores on them. Such as the Dr. No monikor for "stands up for their beliefs" and his consistent voting record while in congress.

Everyone needs to go through them for the polls in their respective states. Every state is different. The crosstabs might even give city data: what plays well in Cincinnati and Cleveland are usually two different things. ;)
 
Bradley in DC -

you mentioned that the crosstabs are where the useful data is has anyone gone forward with putting together a list of key parameters of attributes/characteristics that voters have keyed on as being critical. For example you had mentioned "stands up for their beliefs" as a key variable. It might be useful to go through an analysis of all prior cross tab polls from Iowa to know to come up with some key talking points, then start up a grass roots effort to disseminate those talking points and how Dr. Paul scores on them. Such as the Dr. No monikor for "stands up for their beliefs" and his consistent voting record while in congress.

Right now McCain is leading polls, because he "stands up for what he believes in, even if it is unpopular." The war is unpopular, but McCain says he believes is a lesser evil. "It keeps Americans safe, and we're WINNING now. It's too bad soldiers have to die, but they do it for us and because they believe in our country." It's the most basic knee-jerk patriotism.

Ron Paul's press release was very good today. He said (McCain's position) the war could potentially bankrupt the US. Point out that fighting an unnecessary war and occupying a foreign country in the middle of a Civil War, where our presence does not help, but in fact destroys our relationship with Middle Eastern and Muslim countries, takes away the opportunities for domestic policies that benefit Americans.

Ron Paul's Congressional record shows that he votes on principle. They call him "Dr. No " because he stands up for what he believes in. He represents change for America and a return to our values. He wants to protect our civil liberties. He is a veteran and receives the most money from retired and active duty military members. He believes in a strong national defense and will bring the national guard back to protect our borders. He has a plan to fix our immigration system and does not pander to corporate lobbyists. He was a doctor and respects life and the states rights to protect it as they see fit. He is opposed to the death penalty, the current policy of allowing torture in these secret interrogation camps, and he wants to restore "habeus corpus." He wants to scale down government.
 
What I find odd about the data is that when we look at specific issues, (at least on the republican side), the data suggests Dr. Pauls positions are spot on with the majority! However, he is also relatively high in the dislike catagory. Does this suggest that A) they don't know/understand his posittions ? OR B) They like the message and not the messenger(s)?

I often wonder about this when I read the redouble your efforts- or get out there and canvas comments. Both of those things can be beneficial or detrimental, depending on how it is done.

Any thoughts on that?

I think it shows that the official campaign has been and continues to squander an incredible and important opportunity, and the lesson for the grassroots is to work around them as much as possible if Dr. Paul isn't going to clean house after likely getting trounced tomorrow and not pick up any delegates after spending millions of dollars there.

How many millions in IA and NH (and WY?) for, what, two delegates where people agree with his message?! :mad:

There are so many people here with good advice who are doing great work--starting with Josh and Bryan here. We're accomplishing great things outside of the reach of the official campaign staff.
 
Also, Ron Paul respects the letter of the law, and he will allow allow people to make voluntary transitions when they want to. He promotes change and believes in liberty. Nobody gets left out in the street.
 
Ron Paul's press release was very good today. He said (McCain's position) the war could potentially bankrupt the US. Point out that fighting an unnecessary war and occupying a foreign country in the middle of a Civil War, where our presence does not help, but in fact destroys our relationship with Middle Eastern and Muslim countries, takes away the opportunities for domestic policies that benefit Americans.

No, last minute attacks and comparisons make politicians look desperate and pandering (despite the truth).
 
Ron Paul needs to propose....

Positive solutions to the problems he so ably points out.

In the debates, I have also noticed that he tends to point out what is wrong, and how we got there, and not as much what his solutions would be.

I know he is running for president, not dictator in chief, but it would be helpful for him to more clearly articulate what specific actions he would take. He should point out exactly how his actions, the ones he CAN take as president, would effect Mr and Mrs Voter.

What would his monetary policy mean to Joe Sixpack?

What would the effect of dismanteling the IRS be on Mrs Butterfield, a single mom?

Precisely how would he orchastrate a cessation of the war on drugs, and what does this mean to families in urban areas?

You get the idea. Articulate what it would mean to wake up in mid 2010 and have his ideas in effect.

Tuff
 
Are you still close with HQ Bradley?

When I stopped apologizing for their incompetence, they started making up lies about me and spreading them (funny, no one at the Congressional office thought I got fired :rolleyes:), so the relationship has, um, "deteriorated."
 
I don't get it. The townhall meeting they aired from Manchester last night was gold. Why didn't the campaign organize these meetings during last fall? YOu could see Dr. Paul and the audience were very comfortable with this. Why don't they air this meeting now?
 
No, last minute attacks and comparisons make politicians look desperate and pandering (despite the truth).

Bull. You're stuck on this "Just tell everyone how honest our guy is!" Every candidate's supporters and their mothers are doing that. You have to demonstrate differences on the issues. You have to compare and contrast.
 
When I stopped apologizing for their incompetence, they started making up lies about me and spreading them (funny, no one at the Congressional office thought I got fired :rolleyes:), so the relationship has, um, "deteriorated."

tell us more, don't just tease us :D
 
Bull. You're stuck on this "Just tell everyone how honest our guy is!" Every candidate's supporters and their mothers are doing that.

perhaps - but they don't have the record to back it up. it's not just about claiming something - but about backing it up with hard evidence.
 
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