RCP Texas Poll

[floridasun1983]

From the information I heard about the IL rally yesterday or the day before (I can't recall), he essentially gave the standard stump speech that he has been giving all along. So I think you are right that they are failing to change tactics. I have been doing a good bit of research on House and Senate races, and have found that there are libertarian Republican candidates out there that are giving a far better presentation of the message than the campaign is. They are able to connect the message to the concerns of the average voter and they are doing it very well (GA Avenger might be able to back me up on this). I'm not sure if it is a stubbornness or just a lack of ability, but Paul just doesn't seem to be able to do that in his speeches. He is real good at firing up the base, but preaching to the choir does not win elections.

Yes. Its the same stump speech that everyone has heard for 6 months now. Its time to shake things up. Go after gas prices. Respond to current events. I actually do believe Ron can connect with the average voter, but its almost like his "handlers" are afraid to let him. They keep him a mile away from every media outlet he needs be on non-stop, like Fox News. You gotta go where the votes are, you can fish all day in your swimming pool and you won't have a bite.

The campaign has totally failed when it comes to traditional retail politics. They just aren't selling their goods. This is why so many here were wrong about Santorum being a flash in the pan candidate; he's flat out worked tirelessly to sell himself to the country, one townhall, one door step at a time. That's what it takes when you're not mega-bucks Romney.

 

[J_White]

focus on being delegates !

 

[LostNFoundNTx]

Honestly I'm suprised he doesn't have a bigger lead than that.

 

[BUSHLIED]

Yes. Its the same stump speech that everyone has heard for 6 months now. Its time to shake things up. Go after gas prices. Respond to current events. I actually do believe Ron can connect with the average voter, but its almost like his "handlers" are afraid to let him. They keep him a mile away from every media outlet he needs be on non-stop, like Fox News. You gotta go where the votes are, you can fish all day in your swimming pool and you won't have a bite.

The campaign has totally failed when it comes to traditional retail politics. They just aren't selling their goods. This is why so many here were wrong about Santorum being a flash in the pan candidate; he's flat out worked tirelessly to sell himself to the country, one townhall, one door step at a time. That's what it takes when you're not mega-bucks Romney.

SIGH: None of this is going to happen. Ron is not going to change and the campaign isn't either (the campaign is basically over) and that was clear from day 1 of 2012....could you imagine Ron giving a speech at the RNC Convention in Tampa...if he manages to get one, please, please, make him write it down and read it...save us all the embarrassment.

My prediction is that he doesn't break 20% in any primary besides perhaps PA and SD...I think MT has the last caucus where Ron could get a win there...but that's about it. Be prepared for 9-11% in the remaining States...be prepared for more large rallies with the same stump speech.

 

[Paul4Prez]

Ron Paul is not doing well in the South -- too many neocons. He does the best in the West, which unfortunately is also Romney's stronghold, and the Midwest, which is Santorum's best area.

 

[Paul4Prez]

Liberty and freedom isn't popular apparently....

They're plenty popular, just not among the old people who listen to talk radio all day and vote reliably.

 

[Paul4Prez]

This is why so many here were wrong about Santorum being a flash in the pan candidate; he's flat out worked tirelessly to sell himself to the country, one townhall, one door step at a time. That's what it takes when you're not mega-bucks Romney.

Santorum isn't doing well because of his brilliant person-to-person campaigning. He's doing well because conservative "thought leaders" on the radio, online, and in the churches decided that Santorum was the only remaining conservative alternative to Romney who was adequately militaristic for their tastes.

 

[Bman]

Liberty and freedom isn't popular apparently....

It is. Things are more complicated than you are giving credit for. Rome was not built in a day.

 

[unknown]

That isn't even an outlier that is two recent polls, showing the same thing. Pathetic. Paul can't even get double digits in his HOME state. WOWOW.

Dont blame Ron Paul, blame the electorate for buying into this Lobbyist POS lying Judas goat Santorum.

Effing media wont even mention Ron Paul anymore.

Is EVERYONE doing phone from home to combat the black out?

 

[The_Ruffneck]

If I recall, the last GOP candidate to lose their home state while still running for the nomination was Alan Keyes who lost MD in 2008. Of course Paul lost Texas in 08 as well. Prior to that it was Keyes in 2000.

Giuliani won New York in 08?

 

[Keith and stuff]

Giuliani won New York in 08?

He wasn't running.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Republican_primary,_2008

 

[BamaAla]

Santorum isn't doing well because of his brilliant person-to-person campaigning. He's doing well because conservative "thought leaders" on the radio, online, and in the churches decided that Santorum was the only remaining conservative alternative to Romney who was adequately militaristic for their tastes.

It certainly started that way. Dude straight up pounded the ground in Iowa; I can't stand the man, but credit where it's due. He did the same thing in Alabama last week. He was behind in the polls, but he hit every rib shack and took every interview in the state...it paid off.

 

[parocks]

Now Frothy is in the lead....

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...xas_republican_presidential_primary-1598.html

Poll Date Sample Santorum Romney Gingrich Paul Spread
RCP Average 3/11 - 3/13 -- 32.5 29.5 19.5 8.5 Santorum +3.0

Santorum: 32.5
Romney 29.5
Gingrich: 19.5
Paul: 8.5


WTF?!?!?!?!

Seems "right". Santorum over Romney in Texas. Would like to see Ron Paul higher.
It falls in line with everything else that's going on. Santorum got a bump from AL, MS, presumably, or the results reflected what people thought on Tuesday in AL, MS.
The primary is over 2 months away. <1144

 

[parocks]

Santorum isn't doing well because of his brilliant person-to-person campaigning. He's doing well because conservative "thought leaders" on the radio, online, and in the churches decided that Santorum was the only remaining conservative alternative to Romney who was adequately militaristic for their tastes.

Santorum is a Social Conservative, and Social Conservatives are popular in the middle of the country. He's Huckabee without bands around his stomach and a bunch of pardoned murderers. Huckabee did pretty well even with those problems.

Santorum isn't the one getting tons of money from Goldman Sachs. That would be Romney and Obama.

 

[parocks]

Ron Paul is not doing well in the South -- too many neocons. He does the best in the West, which unfortunately is also Romney's stronghold, and the Midwest, which is Santorum's best area.

In theory, Paul should do well in Montana. And West River South Dakota, where there are ranchers. In South Dakota they break up the state for political analysis purposes into East River and West River. East River is more Democrat, Farmers, Sioux Falls. West River is more Republican, Ranchers, Rapid City. Romney does well in the West where there are Mormons, and that's just about it. If it's the Rocky Mountain region, or the Plains, or anything beyond the immediate west coast, Romney doesn't do well, unless there are Mormons.

We got 25% in Montana in 2008. It's a caucus. There seem to be complicated rules there as well, probably making our life more difficult. We might want to get on the central committee or something there.

 

[abruzz0]

It's the republican and media defamation of Ron Paul. Bush basically ran on the same kind of politics that Ron Paul did before Bush lifted his cover on his neo-conservativism. Non-intervention, sound economics, etc. Now they want to make non-intervention seem crazy yet they VOTED FOR IT back in 2000. All I can say is, "Would Jesus support these wars?" - No.

GOP retort: "YEA BUT IT CHANGED AFTER DA 9/11'Z HAPPUNED, NOW DUH ONLY THANG DAT MAIKZ ME HAPPY IS BOMBIN MOOSLUMZ N POUNDIN BACK SOME BEERS N STUFF. SANTORUM'S A GUD KRIST'CHUN MAN. HE GON' FIX ERRTHANG, CUZ JEESUZ GONNA KUM ON DOWN N HELP HIM BEAT DEM LIBZ AND GAYS!!!!!"

 

[Keith and stuff]

Ron Paul is not doing well in the South -- too many neocons. He does the best in the West, which unfortunately is also Romney's stronghold, and the Midwest, which is Santorum's best area.

You know, we are keeping up with this stuff. http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?366812-Ron-Paul-Support-by-Region

It is subject to change but so far it is... Mid-Atlantic, Northern New England, New England, Northeast, West Coast, Pacific Northwest, East Coast and so on. West Coast is #5 so far as regions go.

 

[parocks]

SIGH: None of this is going to happen. Ron is not going to change and the campaign isn't either (the campaign is basically over) and that was clear from day 1 of 2012....could you imagine Ron giving a speech at the RNC Convention in Tampa...if he manages to get one, please, please, make him write it down and read it...save us all the embarrassment.

My prediction is that he doesn't break 20% in any primary besides perhaps PA and SD...I think MT has the last caucus where Ron could get a win there...but that's about it. Be prepared for 9-11% in the remaining States...be prepared for more large rallies with the same stump speech.

We did well in PA in 08. The election was decided already. We got 16%. This time around we have Santorum, who is from PA. That's going to make a difference. Ron Paul is also from PA, but not as much as Santorum. And Gingrich is also from PA. So, I dunno there. In 2008, Ron Paul was pretty mainstream and popular with the younger set when I was there. The popular local rock bands were supporting him, playing popular shows in the big venue, etc etc. And they weren't supporting Obama. There were a bunch of counties, basically from A/B/E, Reading, Lancaster, Harrisburg, York where Ron Paul pulled 20-25%, that where the popular local rock bands who were playing the shows were from.

We really should be looking as much at <1144 as anything else. We should be making decisions where the payoff is keeping Romney <1144.

I just dunno about PA. I think those factors that caused a good result were unique to the situation in 2008. And I think spending time and effort and money to get votes where the guy who is likely to win is not the guy you want to try hardest to keep <1144 is not really the way to go. I really SHOULD put something together, but not because it's really a good idea at this time, strategically. I should contact the meetup groups, and see if they want something. If they do, I'll see if I can pull it together. Or, I won't do that at all.

If we're looking at picking up delegates here and there, there are 24 proportional at large delegates in Kentucky. I would hope Rand could help get delegates there.

 

[The_Ruffneck]

what are the current numbers for illinois?
if romney wins illinois he will bounce right back in other states

 

[tbone717]

Giuliani won New York in 08?

He dropped out before NY voted.