Rand surges to 4th in the latest national poll!

mwkaufman said:
Cruz is not the enemy. Cruz running is not bad for Rand. Trump/Cruz/Carson running is great for the liberty movement as they each espouse some of Rand's views and are bringing them into the mainstream. Trump has led the way on calling out America's interventionist foreign policy as dangerous, Cruz has made the federal reserve an enemy of the base, and Carson has been even more hard line on budget cuts and tax reduction.

The Rubio/Bush wing of the party, the spend more and intervene more candidates have just a combined 13% support. Romney never fell below 20% in 2012, and his adversaries Perry/Cain/Gingrich were much closer to that philosophy than Trump/Cruz/Carson are. Paul in 2007 was split from the rest of the candidates and the party on taxation, spending, size of government, and foreign policy. Rand now has people saying his father's talking points on the stage with him, and those positions could create a winning coalition which just wasn't possible 8 years ago.

Say these guys stayed out, and we had debate stages of Graham/Jindal/Kasich/Christie/Rubio/Bush/Paul/Huckabee/Fiorina/Santorum. There would be 8+ guys on stage disagreeing with Paul on foreign policy and size of government. He'd get drowned out, and while he might be polling higher than he is today, it wouldn't be possible to assemble a winning coalition as candidates dropped out.
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Perhaps long-term. Who says we even have that kind of time to shape minds before the collapse? You claim that having those people on stage would be greater for the liberty movement than having Rand in office? Doubtful. In regards to if Rand was the only opposition to the size of government and foreign policy, it's almost evenly split among Americans who want more war and who wants to not be involved. Also most Republicans are for smaller government. Having no competition means all the anti-war and small government votes go to him and he'd be way higher in the polls than now. I understand where you're coming from, but by that same logic, we should all thank Glenn Beck for "joining the liberty movement" and intentionally steering his massive audience in the wrong direction indefinitely. What good is the movement if there's 20 pied pipers diluting the message and guaranteeing a true liberty candidate never wins. If that's the case, we're better off just having an economic collapse and a revolution now because that wont ever go anywhere.
 
NoOneButPaul said:
This is why I can't stand Cruz. Had he done the honorable thing and stepped aside in 2016 for Rand - like he should have - Paul would be between 10-12% right now. Instead Cruz ran and has now split the vote. Obviously he has to realize this? The Pauls helped him get elected in 2012... really makes you wonder why he couldn't hold off until 2020 or 2024. Obviously they all seem on friendly terms and I don't discount the possibility they team up if either one wins but the entire thing still rubs me the wrong way.
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You're thinking about this in a tremendously selfish manner.

Cruz owes us absolutely nothing. He's doing what he feels is in the best interest for his family, his country, and himself. Expecting him to just fall in line with Rand, particularly when he's been outpolling and outraising Rand, is preposterous. On the flip side, if Rand starts polling two or three times what Cruz is, and money starts to flow to Rand, Cruz should drop. Until then, it would be just as fair for the Cruz supporters to call Rand out for not dropping.
 
It's nice to see that Carson and Carly being lunatics and idiots is hurting them in the polls.

If Randy jumps Rubio, he will be a real problem for everyone in this race. He could easily be seen as the establishment's best shot at beating Trump, and the anti-establishment's best shot at beating Trump, AND the anti-establishment's best shot at beating establishment candidates.

Rubio and Cruz not being able to gain any sort of traction is huge. This is a very exciting development.
 
A 5 day rolling average?

So if Rand was at 3-5% and now at 6%, wouldn't that mean he polled on the 5th day higher than 6%?
 
NoOneButPaul said:
This is why I can't stand Cruz. Had he done the honorable thing and stepped aside in 2016 for Rand - like he should have - Paul would be between 10-12% right now. Instead Cruz ran and has now split the vote. Obviously he has to realize this? The Pauls helped him get elected in 2012... really makes you wonder why he couldn't hold off until 2020 or 2024. Obviously they all seem on friendly terms and I don't discount the possibility they team up if either one wins but the entire thing still rubs me the wrong way.
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Don't try to take the politics out of politics. Sen Cruz is an extraordinarily bright guy, with a tremendous resume, who sensed he had a shot. Ambition and history demanded that he take that shot. I don't hold that against him.

I hate to say it, but the failure to keep him out of the race has been the biggest failure of the campaign this go 'round, and it was something that only the candidate, Sen Paul could have done.

He needed to offer Ted Cruz what Ted Cruz wants even more than to be POTUS; i.e., a seat on the SCOTUS. Had he made the case, along with Sen McConnell, that were Rand to win, the first opening on the Court would go to him, and he would have Mitch McConnell there to shepherd it through the Senate, Cruz might not have run.

But hey... you wanna be top dawg, you gotta beat some other top dawgs...
 
mwkaufman said:
Cruz is not the enemy. Cruz running is not bad for Rand. Trump/Cruz/Carson running is great for the liberty movement as they each espouse some of Rand's views and are bringing them into the mainstream. Trump has led the way on calling out America's interventionist foreign policy as dangerous, Cruz has made the federal reserve an enemy of the base, and Carson has been even more hard line on budget cuts and tax reduction.

The Rubio/Bush wing of the party, the spend more and intervene more candidates have just a combined 13% support. Romney never fell below 20% in 2012, and his adversaries Perry/Cain/Gingrich were much closer to that philosophy than Trump/Cruz/Carson are. Paul in 2007 was split from the rest of the candidates and the party on taxation, spending, size of government, and foreign policy. Rand now has people saying his father's talking points on the stage with him, and those positions could create a winning coalition which just wasn't possible 8 years ago.

Say these guys stayed out, and we had debate stages of Graham/Jindal/Kasich/Christie/Rubio/Bush/Paul/Huckabee/Fiorina/Santorum. There would be 8+ guys on stage disagreeing with Paul on foreign policy and size of government. He'd get drowned out, and while he might be polling higher than he is today, it wouldn't be possible to assemble a winning coalition as candidates dropped out.
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Someone has read Predictably Irrational because it's true. Having Cruz in the race sucks but it might actually help Rand because if everyone is moderates and it's just Rand, people a lot of times make decisions on who they can compare which would cut Rand while the moderates are weighed in the choice category. Cruz is pushing the anti-establishment rhetoric the hardest while Trump is demolishing the rest of the establishment over immigration. Cruz is voicing Ron's old positions without being called kooky old man. This helps Rand as he sets for his surge. People like to compare apples with apples, not apples to an orange because then you complicate things and people are simpletons in making judgments.

The biggest threat is not Cruz, Trump or Carson but Rubio. Trump is minimizing Jeb because that has been his mission and I do not know if he will finish Rubio off. Cruz has been riding Trump's coattails for a while and he to will get steamed rolled by Trump when Trump is done with the establishment.

Rand is being patient and rational while a lot of us Rand supporters are in attack mode to let's surge now. Rand is going to peak at the right time and it's coming. I hope he peaks in January after the next two debates especially after the Jan 28 debate.


Carly, Pataki, Sissy Graham, Chrispy Kreme, Santorum, and Kasich will drop out in the coming weeks.

This leaves two establishment candidates remaining: Jeb and Marco.

Socon faction of the TEA party: Carson
Hawk faction of the TEA party: Cruz
Immigration faction of the TEA party: Trump
Fiscal conservative of the TEA party: Paul

Also Paul has been smart creating the Fiscal conservative narrative as others forget being conservative means being smart/efficient with money and not growing debt but eliminating the debt, Paul has challenged the candidates in standing on big spending!

The TEA party might be the vehicle to finally eliminating the establishment. The movement needs to cycle slowly back to fiscal responsibility in which I believe it will. Rand is changing the debate but much thanks goes to his father for laying the groundwork.

You make an excellent observation!
 
What troubles me about the whole "Rand will surge when its time" meme is the debate cut offs this go round. Plus with Cruz still in Rand is drowned out. In a Trump,Carson,Rubio,Paul Debate however he can shine.
 
ds21089 said:
First of all, Cruz has no chance of winning and he knows this. Also if that's the case, why is he deliberately stealing Rand's lines and attempting to talk over Rand instead of his "opposition". It's funny how you guys can believe media bias, but can't believe that with billions of dollars and massive amounts of power on the line, that money isnt being pumped in to prevent true candidates from winning. It doesn't have to be the Pauls...it's just they've been the only people running who couldnt be bought or just purely have ill intent lately. Anyone who emerges who cant be bought will be met with the same opposition. Riddle me this. Rand is always met with staunch opposition in the media and is never announced the debate winner even though he clearly won the last debate, yet Cruz and Rubio were determined the winners twice. We all know Rubio is a shill..You think Cruz would get that positive bump as well if he wasnt also one?
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1. I think it's very possible for Cruz to get the nomination. Especially if it all comes down to a Rubio vs. Cruz in the end, which is an exceedingly likely scenario.
2. He's echoing Rand's ideas because they're good ideas and because he wants to appeal to libertarians. Also, since when is agreement among candidates on the Republican debate stage unusual?
3. Of course the media has bias. That in no way necessitates or even implies any sort of joint conspiracy to suppress the liberty movement.
4. Both MSNBC and FNC had talking heads who declared Rand the winner on the night of the debate.

As conveniently reassuring as your excuses are, they lack any empirical foundation and, frankly, don't help motivate anyone to spread the message of liberty. Phonebanking and caucusing do way more for Rand than concocting conspiracy theories.
 
PPP: "We'll have our new national GOP poll tmrw. Only 2 candidates have seen meaningful change in their support since October- Cruz up, Bush down".

Not liking the sound of that.
 
SilentBull said:
PPP: "We'll have our new national GOP poll tmrw. Only 2 candidates have seen meaningful change in their support since October- Cruz up, Bush down".

Not liking the sound of that.
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They had Rand at 2% in October. Yikes.
 
"No meaningful change" for Rand means somewhere in the 2-6% range, where he has been polling at since this summer. The FAU (FL) poll from today has him at 4%, which is pretty good for FL. He has been polling 0-1% there for a while.

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http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/index.aspx
 
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I'll be happy when Rubio is out of there.

I'm still not convinced Cruz is a bad thing. I'd much rather have him over anybody else if Paul doesn't get the nomination.
 
I've always expected Rand would eventually climb into the second tier of candidates.

Give it some more time, things still have to shake out. Neither Trump nor Carson are going to win, they both will crash out of the race eventually, when that happens we will see where the real candidate with experience end up.
 
Thats a pretty low margin of error, it means Rand is technically out of his "lull" at least according to this poll.
 
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