Rand Paul on Hannity radio today

[anaconda]

It would continue debate until Reid agrees to a "60 vote" on amendments. I think that is what Cruz is after. Then, Reid will not even put his "fund o'care" amendment up, because no republican will vote outright for it.

That is what McCain wants is cloture, then Reid will put up the amendment, get the 51 votes, and McCain can vote against the amendment, but lose to the democrats.

Ah, great point. I hadn't considered the "symbolic value" of getting to vote against the amendment.

 

[anaconda]

I think you are right anaconda. That what it sounds like his position actually is if you can find it in-between all the non-committal rhetorical clutter. Unfortunately his soundbytes and interviews the last couple of days have been so wishy-washy sounding I can certainly see why folks looking for clear, bold support for the effort are disheartened... especially many of his hardest core supporters. Myself, I've been working hard on a person to person basis the last few years to build up Rand as the best conservative choice amongst my Republican/Tea Party fellows... and I would hate to see those efforts end up being squandered by Rand appearing to side with the wrong side in the republican civil war.

But Rand has been saying all along that he expects a compromise since the Republicans control the House but not the Senate or White House. And he was quite vociferous this morning in his lambasting of the Democrats and the President for not wanting to compromise, and that a shut down would be on their hands accordingly. So Rand is probably quite eager to lob the ball back to the House for an acceptable compromise.

So, is it your feeling that Rand has been taking the defeatist position all along on this issue? What Rand had previously been describing as defeatist was the specter of the House possibly failing to send a bill to the Senate that did not defund. So things appear to be moving as he had hoped for.

 

[specsaregood]

It is tarnishing him already. If he does not support Cruz LOUDLY in this, he is tarnished. People are paying attention, they want ObamaCare defunded then destroyed, now!

Here's the thing. I'd wager that the vast MAJORITY of rpf members actually want a govt shutdown. We are hardly the members of prevailing public opinion here; even among the GOP. I'd also wager that if Rand is pissing off rpf members; he's increasing his popular support.

 

[1836er]

But Rand has been saying all along that he expects a compromise since the Republicans control the House but not the Senate or White House. And he was quite vociferous this morning in his lambasting of the Democrats and the President for not wanting to compromise, and that a shut down would be on their hands accordingly. So Rand is probably quite eager to lob the ball back to the House for an acceptable compromise.

So, is it your feeling that Rand has been taking the defeatist position all along on this issue? What Rand had previously been describing as defeatist was the specter of the House possibly failing to send a bill to the Senate that did not defund. So things appear to be moving as he had hoped for.

You see, I don't really know. I do know that it sounds to many like Rand is hedging and that is bad politically. On what strategy Rand actually supports I'm not really sure, but I do agree with Ted Cruz that we lose the battle for sure if the Senate sends a bill back to the house that re-funds Obamacare.

This is basically a game of political "chicken." In order to "win" on the issue you have to be willing to use your leverage and follow through with it. Unfortunately, most Republicans in the Senate are more scared of being blamed by the mainstream media for a government "shutdown" than they are of Obamacare going fully into effect. What I'd really like to know is this. If, by some miracle, the entire GOP Senate caucus were to somehow band together and block the cloture vote and be willing to endure (and be blamed in the media for) a government "shutdown" and were willing to hold out all the way through the 2014 congressional elections... what would Obama and the Dems do? If forced to pick between the two would they choose a permanent government "shutdown" or Obamacare?

Nevertheless, at least Ted Cruz and Tea Party conservatives are willing to accept a government "shutdown" (and whatever political/electoral fallout ensues) if that's the price they have to pay to block the funding of Obamacare and shield the people from some of its effects. And in order to "win" politically with the folks necessary to win the GOP nomination in three years Rand has to show that he's willing to play that game of "chicken" too and deal with the fallout.

 

[jj-]

This is basically a game of political "chicken." In order to "win" on the issue you have to be willing to use your leverage and follow through with it. Unfortunately, most Republicans in the Senate are more scared of being blamed by the mainstream media for a government "shutdown" than they are of Obamacare going fully into effect. What I'd really like to know is this. If, by some miracle, the entire GOP Senate caucus were to somehow band together and block the cloture vote and be willing to endure (and be blamed in the media for) a government "shutdown" and were willing to hold out all the way through the 2014 congressional elections... what would Obama and the Dems do? If forced to pick between the two would they choose a permanent government "shutdown" or Obamacare?

Obama won't tolerate 2 years of having the government closed. So he will cave. Republicans in theory shouldn't mind having the government closed because they're supposed to be the small government party.

 

[anaconda]

I do agree with Ted Cruz that we lose the battle for sure if the Senate sends a bill back to the house that re-funds Obamacare.

But why? The House can make a good compromise bill that pushes back significantly against Obamacare. Democrats lose and Republicans score a win. Or if the Democrats in the Senate don't vote for the new bill then the shut down can be blamed on them.

 

[anaconda]

OK. Here's a short article that explains why cloture in the Senate gives us Obamacare. For anyone else that was as confused as I was. Apparently the House is only going to do TWO things: Jack and Squat...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/25/obamacare-2013_n_3991186.html

 

[Southron]

I heard that live. Hannity acted pretty childish at the end of the interview. He wears his emotions on his sleeve, and you could tell he was frustrated, but that deserves an apology.

 

[jj-]

I heard that live. Hannity acted pretty childish at the end of the interview. He wears his emotions on his sleeve, and you could tell he was frustrated, but that deserves an apology.

Definitely, Rand Paul should apologize for his defeatist attitude and for undermining Cruz's efforts to defund Obamacare.

 

[anaconda]

I heard that live. Hannity acted pretty childish at the end of the interview. He wears his emotions on his sleeve, and you could tell he was frustrated, but that deserves an apology.

Hannity sounded like he was frustrated with the majority of Republicans in the Senate who will vote for cloture, not with Rand specifically. It seems to me that Hannity should be FAR more pissed off at the Republicans in the U.S. House that apparently are not going to attempt any further Obamacare compromises with this continuing resolution. In fact, why aren't ALL of us pissed off about that? Why is the House not issue number one?

 

[1836er]

Generally I have little faith the house republicans hold their ground if even the most modest and insignificant of "fixes" to Obamacare is included in a compromise proposal... and just enough representatives will be looking for anyway to avoid voting for a shutdown if they can make it appear like they didn't surrender. At the same time once this is thrown back to the House then we're right back to the republicans getting blame the whole time the government remains "shut down" while the negotiations take place.

Unfortunately, I kind of see the scenario(s) you linked to as pretty likely.

What makes Cruz's strategy unrealistic to actually win now on Obamacare, of course, is that it requires 41 GOP Senators to filibuster Reid's amendment until he gives up and allows a vote on the House bill as is (which I just don't see under any circumstances)... and even then the democrats would defeat the original House CR by a simple majority. At that point, of course, it would be harder for the Dems to avoid complete blame for the shutdown since it would be their "no" votes that technically shut down the government.

 

[anaconda]

Does anyone know about the history of the House of Representatives defunding things they don't like? Has this been done much?

Also, are there any laws that require the House to fund programs that have been legislated into existence?

Also, when people say that "defunding" wouldn't really defund it, are they referring to "non-discretionary" spending?

 

[Southron]

Hannity sounded like he was frustrated with the majority of Republicans in the Senate who will vote for cloture, not with Rand specifically. It seems to me that Hannity should be FAR more pissed off at the Republicans in the U.S. House that apparently are not going to attempt any further Obamacare compromises with this continuing resolution. In fact, why aren't ALL of us pissed off about that? Why is the House not issue number one?

That's true. All the House has to do is say no and the government is shutdown if that's what they really wanted.

 

[anaconda]

Unfortunately, I kind of see the scenario(s) you linked to as pretty likely.

I am not understanding why most Republican voters give a crap if the government shuts down. Especially with Obamacare on the line. How many Republican Representatives will get primaried over caving on Obamacare?

 

[1836er]

I am not understanding why most Republican voters give a crap if the government shuts down. Especially with Obamacare on the line. How many Republican Representatives will get primaried over caving on Obamacare?

I don't think most republican voters give a crap if government shuts down.... I think most would accept that in a heartbeat if it would shut down obamacare. It's the republican congressmen that don't want a government shutdown.

 

[anaconda]

I don't think most republican voters give a crap if government shuts down.... I think most would accept that in a heartbeat if it would shut down obamacare. It's the republican congressmen that don't want a government shutdown.

Why are are they worried about a stigma of "shutting the government down" if the GOP voters don't care if the government is shut down?

 

[1836er]

Why are are they worried about a stigma of "shutting the government down" if the GOP voters don't care if the government is shut down?

I ask myself the exact same thing; I think it's way overblown.

Maybe a whole bunch of them are just spooked from the whole Gingrich/Clinton era shutdown and the mainstream media meme they've come to accept that the GOP "lost" that shutdown.

Maybe many of them don't want a shutdown because it disrupts business as usual and their easy life... makes life at the DC cocktail parties with their big-government soulmates in the democrat party more... uncomfortable.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

OK. Here's a short article that explains why cloture in the Senate gives us Obamacare. For anyone else that was as confused as I was. Apparently the House is only going to do TWO things: Jack and Squat...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/25/obamacare-2013_n_3991186.html

Yeah, that's probably the reason. No GOP Senators can openly say that, but the reality is that if it goes back to the House, Boehner and Cantor will fold like cheap suits. Hannity should be badgering Boehner and Cantor.

 

[anaconda]

I don't think most republican voters give a crap if government shuts down.... I think most would accept that in a heartbeat if it would shut down obamacare. It's the republican congressmen that don't want a government shutdown.

Here's a nice summary of several different recent polls on the subject. I don't think the numbers are adverse enough to make Republican law makers so fearful.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/23/government-shutdown-polls_n_3977309.html

 

[jj-]

Why are are they worried about a stigma of "shutting the government down" if the GOP voters don't care if the government is shut down?

Because there's little difference between what Democrats and Republican leadership believe in. House Republicans are much more conservative than House Republican leadership, but they didn't have the guts to kick Boehner. Apparently Bachman was one who was going to vote against Boehner and then changed her mind and undid the whole thing.