Rand Paul leading in 1/29/14 NH Primary Poll

[Keith and stuff]

The early results from the poll are out. Rand Paul is the leading Republican. The 2nd and 3rd place Republicans are New Hampshire residents. Hillary Clinton is leading in the Democratic Primary. It looks like the folks polled voted for the folks they are most familiar with. While the 1st poll after the #BridgeGate scandal didn't hurt Christie in NH, this most recent poll, which was taken after several additional possible scandals by Christie, did cause him some pain.

It includes a sample of 246 likely Republican voters with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 6.2 percentage points and a sample of 205 likely Democratic voters with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 6.8 percentage points.

The potential Republican field is a toss-up. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul tops the list with 16 percent of the GOP vote. New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte is not far behind at 13 percent, and former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown follows with 11 percent of the vote.

"I think the big thing on the Republican side is no one is really seen as the next in line," Smith said. "This is unusual for Republicans."

For a while, it seemed New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie might be the next in line. In July, he led the GOP field with 21 percent. Not in the latest poll -- he slid back to 9 percent, still ahead of Mitt Romney running mate Paul Ryan at 6 percent and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio at 6 percent.

Christie appears to have been hurt by the New Jersey bridge scandal.

"I think he still has time to recover, but it's something he has to get over," Smith said.

Ayotte said that while she appreciates being mentioned in the poll, she wants nothing more than to serve in the Senate.

The poll also asked voters who they would not vote for under any circumstances. Biden topped that list for Democrats, while a quarter of Republicans said they would never vote for Donald Trump.

http://www.wmur.com/news/politics/p...pen/-/9857748/24185538/-/u10ca3z/-/index.html

 

[ObiRandKenobi]

lol marco rubio dickhead

 

[ssunlimited]

Good!

 

[philipped]

 

[invisible]

The huckster in the national poll, and ayotte and brown to keep Rand's numbers down in this one. Just for NH, ayotte and brown, now isn't that special! Again, this is a test run to see who they will trot out next election for the rotating pump and dump of distraction candidates.

 

[Keith and stuff]

PDF link
http://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2014_winter_primary012914.pdf

Highlights
Republican Favorability
Rand Paul has the highest favorability. Peter King has substantially lower favorability than everyone else. It is fair to say he is hated by NH Republicans.

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul narrowly tops the Republican field, perhaps building on his father Ron Paul’s second place finish in 2012. Paul is viewed favorably by 49% of likely Republican Primary voters, 14% have an unfavorable opinion of him, and 36% are neutral or don’t know. Paul’s net favorability rating is +35%.

Other GOP candidates with moderate net favorability ratings include Florida Senator Marco Rubio (+31%), Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan (+28%), New Hampshire Senator Kelly Ayotte (+21%), Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (+21%), former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (+21%), Texas Senator Ted Cruz (+19%) and former Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown (+17%). New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (+10%), Texas Governor Rick Perry (+5%) and businessman Donald Trump (
-30%) have low net favorability ratings, despite most Republican Primary voters knowing them Ohio Senator Rob Portman (+7%), and New York Congressman Peter King
(-6%) have low net favorability ratings, but they also are not well known.

Both Republicans from New York are unpopular in NH.
Most Unpopular Republican Candidate

When asked which candidate they would NOT vote for under any circumstance, 25% of likely Republican Primary voters say
they would not vote for Trump, 9% would not vote for Christie, 5% would not vote for Cruz, 5% would not vote for Ayotte, 5% would not vote for Brown, 3% would not vote for Paul, 2% would not vote for Bush, 2% would not vote for Perry, 2% would not vote for Rubio, 1% would not vote for King, 21% think all the prospective candidates are acceptable, and 19% are unsure.

Republican Net Electability

When looking at electability scores, Rand Paul (+13%) leads the field while Ayotte (+8%), Ryan (+6%), Brown (+6%), Rubio (+4%), Walker(+2%) and Bush
(+1%) also have positive net electability scores. Christie (0%), Portman (0%), Perry (0%), King (-1%), Cruz (-2%), and Trump (-21%) have either neutral or negative net
electability scores. Christie has seen his net electability drop nine points since Octobe

 

[Anti Federalist]

Good!

 

[helenpaul]

lol marco rubio dickhead

i agree. only fools support the penis head.

 

[whoisjohngalt]

Rand beats next candidate who might actually run by 5%. HEADLINE: GOP FIELD WIDE OPEN, CHRISTIE CAN STILL WIN THIS THING!

 

[FSP-Rebel]

Lookin good

 

[jkob]

I really think when it is all said and over with that Ted Cruz is going to help Rand just by being the guy that scares moderates and liberals

 

[muzzled dogg]

Good news

 

[serenityrick]

I cannot wait to vote for Rand in the Primary here in NH.

Before I do that though, I need to change my party affiliation to Republican.. I switched to Independent a couple years ago after how disgusted I became with the GOP but realized I can't vote in Republican primaries because of it.

 

[ssunlimited]

I cannot wait to vote for Rand in the Primary here in NH.

Before I do that though, I need to change my party affiliation to Republican.. I switched to Independent a couple years ago after how disgusted I became with the GOP but realized I can't vote in Republican primaries because of it.

Why won't you change to Republican to vote for Rand? I am not a Republican but I changed the party to Republican here in NYC to vote for Rand.

 

[Bergie Bergeron]

He will, he wasn't able to vote for Ron because he switched to Independent.

 

[Keith and stuff]

I cannot wait to vote for Rand in the Primary here in NH.

Before I do that though, I need to change my party affiliation to Republican.. I switched to Independent a couple years ago after how disgusted I became with the GOP but realized I can't vote in Republican primaries because of it.

In NH you can switch from undeclared to Republican at the poll before you vote and then switch back to undeclared after you vote. It's called a semi-closed primary system.

 

[serenityrick]

In NH you can switch from undeclared to Republican at the poll before you vote and then switch back to undeclared after you vote. It's called a semi-closed primary system.

I feel embarrassed for not knowing that, haha.

Does that only work for "undeclared" though? Is Independent considered "undeclared"?

 

[Keith and stuff]

I feel embarrassed for not knowing that, haha.

Does that only work for "undeclared" though? Is Independent considered "undeclared"?

There is no Independent in NH. There are only 3 options. Undeclared, Republican and Democrat. There are other parties from time to time but you cannot legally register with the government as part of them.

 

[serenityrick]

There is no Independent in NH. There are only 3 options. Undeclared, Republican and Democrat. There are other parties from time to time but you cannot legally register with the government as part of them.

Guess I have to stop at my local town hall and figure that out cause I could have sworn I wrote "Independent" on the paper and the clerk had no problem with that. Guess they messed up.

Either way, thanks!