The campaign is not over as long as Rand is still making the smaller debate at least, something where he can make headlines. It doesn't matter who watches the debate, it matters what the endless coverage in the media is like in the week after.
Rand Paul is going to win I guarantee it
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jllundqu
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I'm sure that's what the Kasich supporters, the Graham supporters, the Pataki Supporters, the Huckabee supporters, and the Christie supporters are all telling themselves...
Rand Paul is the only one who said he will stay in till the summer at the very least.
CPUd
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He will definitely be there for the KY caucus. If their plan works Rand will keep Rubio and Cruz from getting the delegates to secure the nomination by taking primary states in the NW. Cruz states will be in the SE and Rubio gets the NE. 2 of those 3 will be on the ticket, 1 of them being Rubio.
For all this to play out though, someone will have to take NH from Trump, Rand must be top 3 in Iowa, NH and probably need to win NV outright.
For all this to play out though, someone will have to take NH from Trump, Rand must be top 3 in Iowa, NH and probably need to win NV outright.
RDM
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How are you so sure Rand has a hold on the NW states? They loved them some Romney, they'll sure love them some Rubio.
CPUd
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With Rubio, I think it will depend on whether or not he plans on running again next cycle, since he's gonna be out of a job soon. The ones who plan on running again usually don't want to get crushed in certain states, like their home state. Both Rubio and Jeb will have made their plans before FL primary, but both of those campaigns are built to run to the RNC if they so choose.
So then they will leave once the do not have a first place visit in early primaries. If Cruz stays in he will split he vote with Trump. Rand will get the establishment support for the same reason the Yankees always win...that the other teams can't stop staring at the pinstripes.
cajuncocoa
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I'm a Dallas Cowboys fan. I belong to the CowboyZone message board. There are still some fans on that board (not very many, mind you, but some) who still think the Cowboys have a chance to win the division and then breeze through the playoffs.
This post reminds me of what I see going on with those fans.
I'm sure that's what the Kasich supporters, the Graham supporters, the Pataki Supporters, the Huckabee supporters, and the Christie supporters are all telling themselves...
The reason is that regardless of his poll numbers, Rand is offering something very different from the rest of the pack. A lot of these other candidates are just clones of each other which makes it impossible to break out. Rand is more likely than them to make headlines because he has more disagreements with the GOP.
I took everything into consideration. It doesn't look good for Paul now but races change drastically once candidates start dropping out. That's why polls at this point don't matter at all
Donald Trump hurts Rand Paul now but helps him in the long run. All I know is that Rand Paul is perceived as establishment and candidates except Paul have every intention of staying in the race all to the end regardless of early primary results.
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dusman
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I think you are pretty spot on here, especially with the change to delegates being proportionally split in the early primary states. We need stealth delegates like Ron had in 2012 and things might get quite interesting at the Convention. If Trump fails in IA and NH, Paul's potential to take NV is probably quite decent and it does seem Rand is best suited for the NW states.
I still think Carson makes a big surprise by dropping before Iowa. I'm betting the power brokers pressure him to open up the field for the anti-Trump candidate to materialize before voting. I think they'll figure out Carson is the main reason Trump remains unfettered. At this point, that's the only viable move I see for the RNC if they are serious about stopping Trump. I retract my thought that he'd endorse Rand, however, because I'm sure part of the deal will be to endorse their favored candidate and with that we'll know who the RNC is moving into position for nomination.
The most important moment I see moving forward is for Rand to qualify for the January 28th Fox News debate in Iowa and make his presence felt when voters will be really paying attention and making a serious decision. That debate probably determines who wins Iowa. I'm optimistic the debate shifts more toward Obamacare after December with it's diminishing success metrics and takes focus away from the ISIS threat.
The Gold Standard
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Dallas is only 2 games back, aren't they? It would be more like Browns fans arguing our chances of making a deep playoff run, except I don't think any Browns fans are that dumb. Most of us gave up on the playoffs months, hell years ago.
Politics is not the same as sports. Teams don't drop out and endorse the best team. If every candidate stayed in till the end then you would have a point. So it is a poor analogy on your part.
That is such a poor analogy it doesn't deserve a serious reply. Your comparing something that we know is impossible to something that is possible however little chance you think he has and it isn't even related.
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r3volution 3.0
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As long as Rand doesn't break his collarbone, we're good.
statist slayer
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Every candidate polling higher than Rand will stay in until Iowa. Unless there's another terrorist attack, Trump gets ~25% of the caucus vote. Carson is fading because the media is bored of him -- there's nothing he can now say about Muslims that out-Trumps Trump. So Carson gets ~5%. Cruz picks up most of the evangelical support, getting ~25%. Rubio will be carpet bombing the airwaves and mailboxes, so he'll get ~20%. The remaining 25% is split between everyone else. Rand needs killer debate performances to win most of this residual. He needs to appear as "presidential" as Rubio, as "strong" as Trump, and as "wily" as Cruz. He needs to siphon off other peoples' time without coming across like Kasich in the last debate.
After Iowa, fringe evangelicals (Huckabee, Santorum) drop out, but the establishment stays through New Hampshire. Rand needs to appear as the credible conservative alternative to Trump and Cruz. I think stumping in New Hampshire would be the best use of his time. If there's no clear winner in Iowa, then the idea of an unstoppable conservative coalition that Trump and Cruz tout as being the key to the general will lose its luster, and people will be looking for more sanity.
If Rand persists as an alternative to Trump, there is no way in hell that the establishment gives him money and support. They would rather have a President Trump than a President Paul. They think Rand is less electable than Trump.
After Iowa, fringe evangelicals (Huckabee, Santorum) drop out, but the establishment stays through New Hampshire. Rand needs to appear as the credible conservative alternative to Trump and Cruz. I think stumping in New Hampshire would be the best use of his time. If there's no clear winner in Iowa, then the idea of an unstoppable conservative coalition that Trump and Cruz tout as being the key to the general will lose its luster, and people will be looking for more sanity.
If Rand persists as an alternative to Trump, there is no way in hell that the establishment gives him money and support. They would rather have a President Trump than a President Paul. They think Rand is less electable than Trump.
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They are so embarrassed by Trump that they won't want him representing the GOP and because they are career politicians the don't want to set a precedent where people without any experience become President.
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