Rand Paul is going to win I guarantee it

dude58677

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The candidates are going to start dropping out after NH and Iowa and endorsing other candidates besides Donald Trump. Rand Paul is falsely perceived as establishment and most Republicans will vote for him because he is staying in the race till the Summer of 2016.
 
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lol, love the enthusiasm. Could use some good news right about now though. A strong NH poll would do it.
 
The RNC would more likely back Paul up over Donald Trump because he is more in line with conservative votes and Donald Trump is also non-interventionist so the RNC will back Paul as the lesser of the two evils.
 
The RNC would more likely back Paul up over Donald Trump because he is more in line with conservative votes and Donald Trump is also non-interventionist so the RNC will back Paul as the lesser of the two evils.

You're ignoring Rubio who already has establishment backing and is polling just fine.
 
You're ignoring Rubio who already has establishment backing and is polling just fine.

He is the type that will drop out without a first place finish in either NH, Iowa, Nevada, and SC. The other candidates will also back Paul because they weren't bullied by Paul.
 
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He is the type that will drop out without a first place finish in either NH, Iowa, Nevada, and SC. The other candidates will also back Paul because they weren't bullied by Paul.

Yeah but Rubio is giving up his senate seat so he has absolutely nothing to lose in this and so he has no reason to ever drop out
 
He is the type that will drop out without a first place finish in either NH, Iowa, Nevada, and SC. The other candidates will also back Paul because they weren't bullied by Paul.

The only way Rubio will back out would be if the republican establishment decides to switch their support to someone else. For that to happen, Bush, Kasich, or Christie would have to pull off a miracle. Either way, the establishment will have a horse in the race.

Currently, I see Iowa coming down to Trump vs Cruz, with Rubio coming in 3rd.

Scenario 1: Trump wins IA. The GOP is ALL IN to destroy him in NH. Kasich and Christie will drop and endorse Rubio. If Trump wins NH too, the GOP gives up and hands it to Hillary. If Rubio wins NH, we now have a dog fight and Rand could find an opening between "outsider" and "establishment".

Scenario 2: Cruz wins IA. Trumpmania fades and NH is Cruz vs Rubio. Rubio would win that fight, and go on to clean up in the SEC primary.

So Rand's best shot is for Trump to stick around long enough to seriously damage Rubio and Cruz, but not TOO long.
 
The only way I see it happening that was is if Trump, Cruz, and Carson drop out. I feel that most of their supports would jump to Rand because they damn near stole all of his positions.

And I think Rubio will be in it all the way. It's looking like he's going to be the eventual nominee the way the media is speaking about him.
 
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The only way I see it happening that was is if Trump, Cruz, and Carson drop out. I feel that most of their supports would jump to Rand because they damn near stole all of his positions.

Ok Carson's just in it to sell books. He'll be gone shortly. Trump is a wildcard, who knows what he's going to do next.
Cruz is a fucking lunatic. He is not running just for fun, and he will not drop out. So there is a scenario where it's Paul, Cruz, and Rubio. Rubio and Cruz will not hurt for money. They'd go all the way to the convention. Rand would either have confront the monster that is Cruz or hope for a brokered convention. Either option sucks. We need Trump to weaken Cruz prior to Iowa.
 
Trump needs to weaken Cruz by saying he stole all of his ideas from Rand. Since that is not going to happen, we need to continue organizing delegates. We can do this. If we are counting on this scenario or that one, we might as well watch sports.
 
Trump needs to weaken Cruz by saying he stole all of his ideas from Rand. Since that is not going to happen, we need to continue organizing delegates. We can do this. If we are counting on this scenario or that one, we might as well watch sports.

republicans-brace-for-brokered-convention.jpeg
 
The only way I see it happening that was is if Trump, Cruz, and Carson drop out. I feel that most of their supports would jump to Rand because they damn near stole all of his positions.

And I think Rubio will be in it all the way. It's looking like he's going to be the eventual nominee the way the media is speaking about him.

The jumping from Trump to Cruz to Carson and back and forth should be making it clear that those people are interested in anybody BUT Rand Paul. They cheer wildly for watered-down half-versions of his positions but won't even consider the real deal. The GOP is irretrievably broken and these voting simpletons are the reason why.
 
I see it differently in Iowa. Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Carson will each get mid to high teens (15%-19%) in percentage of caucus voters. While Rand is going to sneak in with a win by being the only candidate to get more than 20% of the vote due to having the best organized ground game. He will also get over 90% of the Iowa delegates for the same reason. :D
 
Ok Carson's just in it to sell books. He'll be gone shortly. Trump is a wildcard, who knows what he's going to do next.
Cruz is a fucking lunatic. He is not running just for fun, and he will not drop out. So there is a scenario where it's Paul, Cruz, and Rubio. Rubio and Cruz will not hurt for money. They'd go all the way to the convention. Rand would either have confront the monster that is Cruz or hope for a brokered convention. Either option sucks. We need Trump to weaken Cruz prior to Iowa.

That's what I see too. The last three will be Cruz, Rand and either Rubio or Bush. Cruz will stay in to split the anti-establishment vote.
 
Folks.... none of this means much if he doesn't poll high enough into the debates. If he gets dropped from the debates, his campaign is over. Period.
 
Trump and Carson have the non-establishment vote and organic support, due to their confronting the mainstream, not backing down, and prioritizing cultural issues. Rubio, Bush, Cruz, Kasich and Christie have establishment money and endorsements, there is no reason for them to suspend their candidacies until well into the spring. Rand has the best record and positions, but has not made inroads with non-establishment voters, nor with the cultural right, nor with the Tea party, nor with the FOXnews-influenced rank and file GOP.

The above is not a high-percentage recipe for a liberty campaign victory in IA and NH. It looks like the 5 main establishment backed candidates will all stay in through the February races at least, and it looks like Carson and Cruz will split the evangelical vote in IA. Unless Rand engineers a huge youth and independent turnout come Iowa, and/or inspires the TP, social right and anti-establishment voters, he stands to place no higher than 3rd or 4th in Iowa at this point, and the same for NH.
 
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