Rand might be at the kids table for the next debate

[carlton]

Rand's at 3.66 in NH, I say he makes it to the big debate. He will get the 6 he needs in NH

 

[devil21]

Lots of notorious RPF debbie downers popping up all over poll and debate threads lately.....hmmm.....

 

[dusman]

As many have pointed out, CNN has *previously* included duplicate polls from individual pollsters. However, although their stated inclusion rules for this (5th) debate were clearly intended to be quite explicit, this is one point that they failed to include explicitly. They were clear about which polls would be excluded, but they don't actually say in the rules that any specific polls will definitely be included in the average.

If I were with the Paul campaign, I would definitely be arguing this point. Considering that the only thing holding him back in Iowa (as of 12/8) is an old, duplicate poll from CNN, this seems to me a pretty strong argument. I'm' not sure how likely they are to press the issue.
Of course, if another IA poll comes out showing him at 2, then even this argument won't save him.

This is a discussion going on on PredictIt.org over Paul's inclusion. I thought this was a pretty good point. Certainly worth the campaign making an effort this direction. Apparently, CNN made an exception in a prior debate for Fiorina as well, which I didn't know.

 

[Thor]

I saw this commercial tonight on CNN, but the end was a little different. They had 2 times shown instead of the one. So it implied 2 debates. I assume the candidates they did not show their names in the ad will be in the first debate.

 

[CPUd]

I saw this commercial tonight on CNN, but the end was a little different. They had 2 times shown instead of the one. So it implied 2 debates. I assume the candidates they did not show their names in the ad will be in the first debate.

They don't know who will be in the first debate yet. The ones whose names are shown are the top 5 in the RCP average, though the order has changed since they made the commercial, or after applying their own criteria: