Rand is in CNN's commercial for the next Republican Debate, Dec 15

mello · Dec 4, 2015

Does this mean he's in?

adam220891 · Dec 4, 2015

Yes, undercard

PCKY · Dec 5, 2015

So who exactly is on the undercard? Who will Rand duke it out with? Gilmore and Pataki? Santorum? I think wherever Rand lands his debate will be more interesting.
Think about it...Uncle Teddy fighting Carly for who can interrupt and bloviate more? Kasich taking cheese bag shots at....(fill in the blank?)
Rubio admiring himself? Jeb looking dejected and generally pissed off but saying really nothing.
The spinners will really have to work at it to make the thing interesting. Trump won't be interesting, he'll just blame China. Less is better from him in these debates and he knows it.
Rand has stirred it up each and every debate....this is a chance for the undercard debate to be more interesting than the "main stage".
Ha ha ha ha

Havax · Dec 5, 2015

Wow crushing blow if he's in the undercard debate. He's just not the man for the job. Someone else is going to have to carry the liberty banner going forward. Every person I talk to about Rand Paul (including Ron Paul people) think he's annoying and comes off as annoying. Really sucks because he's our best choice by far.

CPUd · Dec 5, 2015

Havax said:
Wow crushing blow if he's in the undercard debate. He's just not the man for the job. Someone else is going to have to carry the liberty banner going forward. Every person I talk to about Rand Paul (including Ron Paul people) think he's annoying and comes off as annoying. Really sucks because he's our best choice by far.

There's actually about a week and a half left before the cutoff where they set the lineup.

hells_unicorn · Dec 5, 2015

adam220891 said:
Yes, undercard

Did they already make that determination and are there no more polls coming under consideration in either New Hampshire or Iowa? Also, all of the so-called under-card types (Santorum, Graham, Pataki, Gilmore) were not shown in the spot. The only person who will likely be relegated to the earlier debate that was shown was Huckabee.

CPUd · Dec 5, 2015

The ones who were named are essentially guaranteed to be in the main debate.

Jonderdonk · Dec 5, 2015

The commercial says at the end: December 9pm EST.

This commercial is obviously not for the undercard debate. And Rand is in the commercial...

francisco · Dec 5, 2015

PCKY said:
So who exactly is on the undercard? ...

To qualify for the earlier [undercard] debate, candidates must reach at least 1% in four separate national, Iowa or New Hampshire polls that are recognized by CNN.

The network said it will recognize data collected from surveys that began no earlier than October 29, 2015 and are released no later than 5 p.m. on December 13.

Polls that will be considered are live interviewer national and state surveys by: ABC News, Bloomberg News, CBS News, CNN, Fox News, Gallup, Marist University, McClatchy News Service, Monmouth News Service, NBC News, The New York Times, Pew Research Center, Quinnipiac University, Time, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The Des Moines Register, the University of New Hampshire, WBUR and WMUR.

http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/20/politics/republican-presidential-debate-criteria-announced/index.html

Based on those criteria, Huck and Santorum will be in the undercard debate for sure. (For sure, neither will make it into the main debate).

Gilmore almost certainly won't make the cut.

Pataki and Graham don't currently make the cut, but if they get some poll results at or above 1 percent by 12/13, they could. Pataki needs one more poll; Graham needs 2.

Rand currently doesn't make the cut for the main debate, but could if he gets some better results in the next couple weeks. If not, he qualifies for the undercard.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

hells_unicorn · Dec 5, 2015

Jonderdonk said:
The commercial says at the end: December 9pm EST.

This commercial is obviously not for the undercard debate. And Rand is in the commercial...

So is Huckabee, which means that if this commercial reflects their selections for the main debate and if they even bother having an undercard debate they might potentially have just Santorum debating against himself unless Graham and Pataki start getting better poll numbers between now and the 13th. It also means that there will be 10 people at the main debate, which sucks because it means that that Rand will have next to no speaking time with Fiorina running her mouth every 3 seconds and occasionally have some interruptions by Cruz.

I wonder if CNN already has inside information that Rand is going to get some good news in one of the state polls that will be coming out soon. If this is the case, it still doesn't explain why Huckabee is included as well.

cjm · Dec 5, 2015

francisco said:
Rand currently doesn't make the cut for the main debate...

Yes he does. He's got 4% in NH right now: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html

francisco · Dec 5, 2015

francisco said:
...Rand currently doesn't make the cut for the main debate, but could if he gets some better results in the next couple weeks. If not, he qualifies for the undercard.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep..._republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html

cjm said:
Yes he does. He's got 4% in NH right now: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html

Unfortunately, the following polls that are shown by RCP don't meet the announced standards set by CNN and won't be counted to determine debate eligibility:

PPP, Boston Globe, CBS/YouGov (not a live interviewer poll as required), Gravis. See the standards quoted in post #9.

Of the 4 remaining NH polls from relevant period that will be counted, Rand currently averages 3.5%. Rand needs some higher poll numbers to drive his average to a minimum of 4%, in order to get into main debate via the NH polling provision.

cjm · Dec 5, 2015

francisco said:
Unfortunately, the following polls that are included in the RCP average, don't meet the announced standards set by CNN and won't be counted to determine debate eligibility

Ah, gotcha. I clicked the link and noted the sidebar, but didn't read the full article to note the individual recognized polls.

Jonderdonk · Dec 5, 2015

hells_unicorn said:
So is Huckabee, which means that if this commercial reflects their selections for the main debate and if they even bother having an undercard debate they might potentially have just Santorum debating against himself unless Graham and Pataki start getting better poll numbers between now and the 13th. It also means that there will be 10 people at the main debate, which sucks because it means that that Rand will have next to no speaking time with Fiorina running her mouth every 3 seconds and occasionally have some interruptions by Cruz.

I wonder if CNN already has inside information that Rand is going to get some good news in one of the state polls that will be coming out soon. If this is the case, it still doesn't explain why Huckabee is included as well.

At some point, you have you scrap the undercard debate--when the lower tier candidates aren't even qualifying for it, and there are only 1-3 candidates in the realm of undercard qualifications. Depending on how many qualify for the undercard, I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility that they bump everyone up.

Liberty74 · Dec 5, 2015

Do these debates really change anything? Especially with so many people on stage blabbing nonsense. Christie didn't make the main debate last time yet he's now in second place in NH?

Plenty of time for people to still rise and fall.

Anti-Neocon · Dec 5, 2015

Liberty74 said:
Do these debates really change anything? Especially with so many people on stage blabbing nonsense. Christie didn't make the main debate last time yet he's now in second place in NH?

Plenty of time for people to still rise and fall.

The media coverage of the debates is ultimately what changes things.

Media coverage in general is what changes things. The media has been pumping Christie big lately, and thus he is now 5th place in the race, and statistical tie for 2nd in NH.

squirl22 · Dec 5, 2015

Wow crushing blow if he's in the undercard debate. He's just not the man for the job. Someone else is going to have to carry the liberty banner going forward. Every person I talk to about Rand Paul (including Ron Paul people) think he's annoying and comes off as annoying. Really sucks because he's our best choice by far.

Can't you find somewhere else to be a troll? You're boring.

TheNewYorker · Dec 5, 2015

Good thing Rand is in the commercial, now CNN is legally bound to have him in their debate even after his poll numbers drop to 0%.

luctor-et-emergo · Dec 5, 2015

LibertyInNY said:
Good thing Rand is in the commercial, now CNN is legally bound to have him in their debate even after his poll numbers drop to 0%.

I'm not entirely sure about that. It's the media, they do not have to broadcast facts.

TheNewYorker · Dec 5, 2015

luctor-et-emergo said:
I'm not entirely sure about that. It's the media, they do not have to broadcast facts.

He can sue them for using his likeness, if they don't let him in.

Rand is in CNN's commercial for the next Republican Debate, Dec 15

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