Rand at 2%, Carson takes the lead in latest NBC/WSJ poll

[shenmue]

WSJ/NBC Poll:
Carson 29%
Trump 23%
Rubio 11%
Cruz 10%
Bush 8%
Fiorina 3%
Kasich 3%
Huckabee 3%
Christie 3%
Rand 2%

Will Rand be at risk of not being in the main stage debate ??

 

[CPUd]

If they include this poll, he'll need to poll 3% in another.

 

[Aquinas]

If they include this poll, he'll need to poll 3% in another.

Based on RCP, if there is another poll Rand's then most recent three results will be 4, 2, and 2. In that case, I think he'll only need 2% to make the debate, not 3%. If more than one poll comes out, though, that 4% from CBS will get bumped and he'll need 3% in each of the next two polls. Since they are only using four polls, there is still a lot of uncertainty.

Someone please correct me if my math is wrong, but I believe at the moment:

Rand qualifies; he needs at least 2% in the next poll to maintain
Huck qualifies; he needs at least 2% in the next poll to maintain
Kasich qualifies; he needs at least 2% in the next poll to maintain
Fiorina qualifies; she qaulifies regardless of the next poll, but two polls will wipe out the CBS 7% and put her on the bubble

Christie qualifies for the undercard; he needs at least 5% in the next poll to qualify for the main debate

Are the requirements for the undercard 1% in at least one poll, or a 1% average? If the former, the rest are in the undercard right now. If the latter:

Graham does not qualify; he needs at least 2% in the next poll to qualify for the undercard
Jindal does not qualify; he needs at least 2% in the next poll to qualify for the undercard
Santorum does not qualify; he needs at least 2% in the next poll to qualify for the undercard
Pataki does not qualify; he needs 4% in the next poll to qualify for the undercard

 

[TheNewYorker]

Honestly I'd rather see Rand in the undercard debate. The people on that stage seem a lot more intelligent. And he'd get to own Lindsey too.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

Honestly I'd rather see Rand in the undercard debate. The people on that stage seem a lot more intelligent. And he'd get to own Lindsey too.

The only benefit to that is that he'd probably get more speaking time.

But that's about it.

 

[euphemia]

Settings>General>Reset. That should take care of it.

 

[KingNothing]

So, the Rubio surge isn't actually happening?

Interesting.

 

[mit26chell]

This is terrible, lol. 2%?

 

[jmdrake]

So one poll Carson's up. The other poll Trump is up. The constant is Rand at 2%. Iowa or bust.

 

[SilentBull]

Most of the poll was conducted before the debate, so it doesn't show any effect that the debate may have had. I'm really hoping that Rand's filibuster and the 20 million views on Facebook can at least translate to an extra point or two.

 

[Jan2017]

Margin of error reported on Fox is +/-4.9%
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...-trump-into-gop-lead-in-latest-national-poll/

These small sample size polls can not just be mean averaged with the larger sample size polls . . . would they (?)
or is this the probable reason to use small sample size (i.e. make two polls of 500 respondents, rather than one poll of 1000 GOP voters)

 

[PCKY]

Margin of error reported on Fox is +/-4.9%
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...-trump-into-gop-lead-in-latest-national-poll/

These small sample size polls can not just be mean averaged with the larger sample size polls . . . would they (?)
or is this the probable reason to use small sample size (i.e. make two polls of 500 respondents, rather than one poll of 1000 GOP voters)

It feels like the pollsters are polling for time...it takes time and resources to poll 1000 versus 400.

 

[CPUd]

Based on RCP, if there is another poll Rand's then most recent three results will be 4, 2, and 2. In that case, I think he'll only need 2% to make the debate, not 3%. If more than one poll comes out, though, that 4% from CBS will get bumped and he'll need 3% in each of the next two polls. Since they are only using four polls, there is still a lot of uncertainty.

Someone please correct me if my math is wrong, but I believe at the moment:

Rand qualifies; he needs at least 2% in the next poll to maintain
Huck qualifies; he needs at least 2% in the next poll to maintain
Kasich qualifies; he needs at least 2% in the next poll to maintain
Fiorina qualifies; she qaulifies regardless of the next poll, but two polls will wipe out the CBS 7% and put her on the bubble

Christie qualifies for the undercard; he needs at least 5% in the next poll to qualify for the main debate

Are the requirements for the undercard 1% in at least one poll, or a 1% average? If the former, the rest are in the undercard right now. If the latter:

Graham does not qualify; he needs at least 2% in the next poll to qualify for the undercard
Jindal does not qualify; he needs at least 2% in the next poll to qualify for the undercard
Santorum does not qualify; he needs at least 2% in the next poll to qualify for the undercard
Pataki does not qualify; he needs 4% in the next poll to qualify for the undercard

I'm operating on the assumption that if they only use the last 4 polls and the cutoff is not tomorrow, none of those will be included. Otherwise 1 or maybe 2 of those will be included. There should be a Fox, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac and Bloomberg this week.

 

[SilentBull]

I'm operating on the assumption that if they only use the last 4 polls and the cutoff is not tomorrow, none of those will be included. Otherwise 1 or maybe 2 of those will be included. There should be a Fox, Rasmussen, Quinnipiac and Bloomberg this week.

That's what I'm thinking. I'm expecting like 3 polls to be included that have not been released yet.

 

[derek4ever]

Shame Rand is down in the msm polls but i think he'll make the debate regardless... Tomorrow is the deadline, so we have to wait and see how Rand is positioned in the debate!

 

[Lord Xar]

Kasich? Huckabee? Christie?

Is this the biggest bullshit poll ever? This is soooo obvious.. they know Rands plan in Iowa/NH.. they need
to dissuade his organizational leverage from turning out...

There is NO way Kasich, Huckabee and Christie are beating Rand.. I'm calling bullshit. This is just a way to widdle down his polling with these polls so he is left out.

The reason the others haven't been released because they are massaging the "data" to push Rand out.. they'd rather have Kasich or Huck or Christie in than Rand.... they cannot have ANYBODY with a dissenting voice chiming in...