Quinnipiac Florida Poll: Ron Paul 14%, Santorum 12%

Not bad. Hopefully it HOLDS this time, because most polls showed us ahead of Santorum in SC :mad:
 
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/01/27/poll-romney-opens-up-lead-in-florida/?hpt=hp_t2

Jacksonville, Florida (CNN) - With four days to go before the Sunshine State's primary, a new poll indicates Mitt Romney has opened up a nine point lead over Newt Gingrich.

According to a Quinnipiac University survey released Friday morning, 38% of likely Florida Republican primary voters say they are backing the former Massachusetts governor for their party's presidential nomination, with 29% supporting the former House speaker.

Follow the Ticker on Twitter: @politicalticker

The poll indicates 14% are backing Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, with 12% supporting former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania.

Six percent say they are undecided, but another 32% say they could change their minds by Tuesday's winner-take-all primary, where 50 delegates (the biggest haul so far) are up for grabs.

The poll was conducted Tuesday through Thursday, entirely before Thursday night's explosive CNN/Republican Party of Florida Debate here on the campus of the University of North Florida in Jacksonville.

It suggests that Gingrich's big momentum coming out of his double-digit victory in Saturday's South Carolina primary may be fading. Gingrich had a 40%-34% advantage over Romney in the Sunday and Monday portion of a Quinnipiac Florida survey released earlier in the week.

"Speaker Newt Gingrich's momentum from his South Carolina victory appears to have stalled and Gov. Mitt Romney seems to be pulling away in Florida," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Romney also has a better favorability rating from likely primary voters, which supports his lead in the horse race. Of course, with four days before Election Day, there is time for another reversal. Three in 10 voters say they might change their mind."

The poll indicates men back Romney 36% – 29% percent, a shift from the previous poll, when men backed Gingrich 37% – 33% percent. Romney leads by ten points percent among women, virtually unchanged.

The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted January 24-26, with 580 likely Republican primary voters in Florida questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
 
Cool!

Last night Santorum didn't get asked any of the questions showcasing his bad, big government solutions points, though, and to hear him go after Romney and Newt you would never know he supported the individual health insurance mandate in 1994. Ron had a good night but was given few questions of substance. I would dearly love for Ron to be in third despite not campaigning there, but I'm not going to get my heart set on it. We need to use the time to get a head start in other states. Santorum has canclelled a Saturday event and will be campaigning in other states himself next week. We don't have MUCH of a time advantage.
 
I saw an article on the front page of the LA time yesterday, read "Gingrich and Romney fight for the hispanic vote." No mention of Ron Paul. EXCUSE ME, isn't Ron Paul blowing everybody out with almost a majority of the hispanic vote? But then again, what do you expect from the media.
 
Paul
men: 19 women: 8

real_women_vote_ron_paul_tshirt-p235478325168445432zzc8u_400.jpg
 
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Jan 27 Jan 25 Jan 09
2012 2012 2012

Gingrich 29 34 24
Romney 38 36 36
Santorum 12 13 16
Paul 14 10 10
Huntsman na na 2
Perry na na 5
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 -
DK/NA 6 7 7

Gingrich and Santorum are loosing support.
 
How accurate has this pollster been historically?

The poll has been cited by major news outlets throughout North America and Europe, including The Washington Post,[5] Fox News,[6] USA Today,[7] The New York Times,[8] CNN,[citation needed] and Reuters.[9] Quinnipiac's Polling Institute receives national recognition for its independent surveys of residents throughout the United States. It conducts public opinion polls on politics and public policy as a public service as well as for academic research.[3][1] Andrew S. Tanenbaum, the founder of the poll-analysis website Electoral-vote.com, compared major pollsters' performances in the 2010 midterm Senate elections and concluded that Quinnipiac was the most accurate, with a mean error of 2.0 per cent.[10]
(wiki)

But there weren't any polls from them included in the RCP average in IA or NH & SC. Not sure if they polled there or not. There are lot of polls done by them in Florida though...

All their polling numbers for Paul; FLORIDA
8/2 Paul 9%
9/19 Paul 6%
11/7 Paul 3%
12/5 Paul 8%
1/8 Paul 10%
1/23 Paul 10%
1/26 Paul 14%
 
Last edited:
The media is trying to hype Santorum again so we'll see. I know a lot of people think Santorum did great last night but I honestly thought he was just plain horrible. He was angry and rambling and making stupid faces like a teenager. I found his demeanor very un-presidential.
 
How accurate has this pollster been historically?

That sort of isn't the point, they are bad for Ron, generally, is the point. They had him behind Santorum when Insider Advantage had him ahead, in the last two polls. So it measures 'going up' for Ron and 'going down' for Santorum, whatever the precise numbers are.

This is likely why Santorum cancelled the event in FL Saturday (the people who billed him as a speaker are having to refund tickets which is kinda raw) and he has said he may campaign in other states next week. He is going to try to say he 'wasn't campaigning there either'.
 
Last edited:
Women just don't know RP


5. Is your opinion of - Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY
Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No

Favorable 35% 42% 28% 33% 42% 29% 33% 39% 33%
Unfavorable 42 42 43 47 33 51 40 49 41
Hvn't hrd enough 20 13 27 17 25 19 25 11 24
REFUSED 3 3 3 3 - 1 2 2 3
 
Women just don't know RP


5. Is your opinion of - Ron Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS..........................
WhtBrnAgnEv TEA PARTY
Tot Men Wom Con Mod Yes No Yes No

Favorable 35% 42% 28% 33% 42% 29% 33% 39% 33%
Unfavorable 42 42 43 47 33 51 40 49 41
Hvn't hrd enough 20 13 27 17 25 19 25 11 24
REFUSED 3 3 3 3 - 1 2 2 3


Book him on the View again
 
How accurate has this pollster been historically?

No pollster is completely acurrate. That is why they always use a plus or minus margin of error. Just because Ron was up slightly against Santorum in most polls in SC does not mean the polls were wrong because of the margin of error takes effect. Also, a poll cannot be correct when there is momentum happening. It just can't measure that completely in the last few days.
 
The 2 days before a primary is when the Media will try to twist the people into voting for who they want, I'm glad NH voters resisted that. IA and SC voters got swayed in the last 2 days. I'm sure FL voters will definitely be swayed like SC voters.
 
No pollster is completely acurrate. That is why they always use a plus or minus margin of error. Just because Ron was up slightly against Santorum in most polls in SC does not mean the polls were wrong because of the margin of error takes effect. Also, a poll cannot be correct when there is momentum happening. It just can't measure that completely in the last few days.

Also the Undecideds often pick the not Paul candidate based on the current media hype but this is impossible for the pollsters to predict prior to a primary.
 
Back
Top