QE4 Started & Nobody Noticed

Fwiw, I maintain that the repo operations are doing multiple things: 1) soaking up growing government debt issuance (QE) as the dollar global standard system is dismantled 2) soaking up the associated dumping of Treasuries by foreign holders that no longer need to hold them as part of that system and the spike in rates that would accompany open market dumping (we saw that briefly end of 2018 and how stocks responded) 3) slipping fresh liquidity to troubled banks like DB. So point is that it's a lot more than just QE4. It's the quiet mechanism they're using to keep rates from spiking as the dollar standard is being unwound.

The metric to see is how many of the borrowers actually pay the overnight/term loans back and how many don't, thus sticking the Fed with the Treasuries.

eta: A very under-reported aspect to the repo stuff is that at the same time the repo market broke down, JPM's balance sheet reported a huge shift out of cash and into bond holdings. No details about where those bonds came from but JPM's free cash to loan out disappeared and was replaced by bond holdings. Now the Fed is taking in bonds and giving out cash...

eta2: CNBC asked Greenspan this morning about repo. Greenspan's answer had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with repos. Some ramble about P/E ratios, instead. Obviously they don't want to talk at all about what's really going on.
 
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Fwiw, I maintain that the repo operations are doing multiple things: 1) soaking up growing government debt issuance (QE) as the dollar global standard system is dismantled 2) soaking up the associated dumping of Treasuries by foreign holders that no longer need to hold them as part of that system and the spike in rates that would accompany open market dumping (we saw that briefly end of 2018 and how stocks responded) 3) slipping fresh liquidity to troubled banks like DB. So point is that it's a lot more than just QE4. It's the quiet mechanism they're using to keep rates from spiking as the dollar standard is being unwound.

The metric to see is how many of the borrowers actually pay the overnight/term loans back and how many don't, thus sticking the Fed with the Treasuries.

eta: A very under-reported aspect to the repo stuff is that at the same time the repo market broke down, JPM's balance sheet reported a huge shift out of cash and into bond holdings. No details about where those bonds came from but JPM's free cash to loan out disappeared and was replaced by bond holdings. Now the Fed is taking in bonds and giving out cash...

eta2: CNBC asked Greenspan this morning about repo. Greenspan's answer had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with repos. Some ramble about P/E ratios, instead. Obviously they don't want to talk at all about what's really going on.

Which countries are dumping Treasuries?
 
Since when are all "foreign holders" countries?

A fine question for sure, and I've answered Zippy's exact question to him several times already so he's just being obtuse at this point.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to draw reasonable conclusions about what's going on when JPM (arguably the controller of the NY Fed, John Williams is a cut-out PR guy, nothing more) suddenly shifts from a large free cash position to a large bond position and then immediately the NY Fed starts doling out fresh cash while taking in bonds. And CLEARLY lying about it the entire time. A ton of bonds got dumped into JPM by someone and now JPM is offloading them onto the Fed, above and beyond their routine PD take-down at Treasury auctions.



A txt file from the government. Must be true. As trustworthy as Ft Knox gold audits I'm sure.
 
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You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to r3volution 3.0 again.

https://www.ccn.com/the-fed-just-blew-the-lid-on-the-next-financial-crisis/


The Federal Reserve’s intervention in the financial system reached truly epic proportions Thursday after the central bank’s New York division announced the largest series of repo operations ever.

The announcement came mere days after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) painted a rosy picture of the U.S. economy in its final policy meeting of 2019. But what the Fed says and what it does are two completely different things.
Central bankers are admitting – by their actions, not words – that crisis is brewing in the financial sector.

The New York Fed announced Thursday it’s planning to inject almost half a trillion dollars into the overnight repo market through the new year, significantly increasing intervention to ensure short-term interest rates are kept in check. The plan includes providing an additional $425 billion in short-term funding to banks in dire need of cash.

As the Financial Times reports, the nuts and bolts of the operations include $120 billion in overnight repo up to Dec. 30 and in early January, alongside $175 billion in longer-term operations.

But if the repo market is truly broken, as evidenced by the banking sector’s dependence on daily liquidity injections, there’s a good chance it’ll spill over to the rest of the economy.

Where in the economy will it spill over to first? That's what I'd like to know.

The greatest fear is that it will overflow into money markets funds, which would have to “break the buck”. And keep in mind that money market funds are not covered by FDIC or guaranteed in any way.

IIRC, there was one money market fund that broke the buck during the last financial crisis, and that is when they went into full do anything mode. Explaining to people that their “cash” has disappeared is a tough thing to do. Too reminiscent of the Great Depression.
 
You got it backwards

1. the economy is booming BECAUSE stimulus
2. we want to keep it booming, that's why we invest more, there's no such thing as "enough"
3. Warren Buffett 101 : when the stock goes up, BUY MORE.

Monetary inflation leads to asset price inflation. Keep that pyramid growing!
 
A fine question for sure, and I've answered Zippy's exact question to him several times already so he's just being obtuse at this point.

Zippy's turning SPAM into an acronym: Shown Previously As Misinformation.
 
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Nope, nobody dumping Treasuries. Foreign holdings are actually up half a $trillion from a year ago. Over the last six months China has reduced theirs by one percent- hardly "dumping". But it is all "secret". Only Devil21 has the inside scoop.

LOL should I dig up your posts from September and October when you said the repos were temporary, only overnight and only $50 billion and your statements that my assertions about what's really going on were completely wrong? You conveniently forget to give credit when I'm RIGHT and conveniently ignore your own very wrong posts.

Just for giggles, assume I am wrong. Is that anything to celebrate? Otherwise, the PDs are choking on so much federal debt that NO ONE IS BUYING that the Fed has to engage in this operation to keep rates from blowing the entire house of cards up. Now ask yourself why would a foreign holder of Treasuries KEEP those assets knowing they're quickly becoming "asset non grata"? No one is that financially suicidal.
 
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LOL should I dig up your posts from September and October when you said the repos were temporary, only overnight and only $50 billion and your statements that my assertions about what's really going on were completely wrong? You conveniently forget to give credit when I'm RIGHT and conveniently ignore your own very wrong posts.

Repos are mostly overnight. Though some can be as long at two weeks.

https://markets.businessinsider.com...d-used-for-2019-9-1028557683#what-are-repos-1

Market repurchase agreements are a type of short-term loan, often used by the Fed to regulate the nation's money supply. They resemble government bonds, as they're secure, feature steady interest rates, and have set maturation dates, or "terms."

When enacting a repo operation, the US central bank sells government securities to banks with predetermined repurchase dates. The offerings come with set interest rates, which create capital over the short borrowing period which was previously not part of the country's economy.

The interest rates associated with repos are relatively low, and most repos are repurchased the day after they're sold. However, several multibillion-dollar repo offerings can add up to a sizeable injection of capital into the US economy.

Repos allow the Federal Reserve to slowly add cash into the economy while watching how markets react. Scheduled repo offerings grant time for policy adjustment, as do the short-term nature of the agreements. Instead of maturing over a span of months or years, these overnight agreements aren't traded and don't see their value fluctuate.

Here's the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's latest schedule for repo operations through fall 2019, according to the bank's September 20 release.

September 27: at least $75 billion in overnight repos, and at least $30 billion in 14-day repos
September 30 to October 10: at least $75 billion in overnight repos

"After October 10, 2019, the Desk will conduct operations as necessary to help maintain the federal funds rate in the target range, the amounts and timing of which have not yet been determined," the bank wrote.

It also clarified that the government assets being offered and subsequently repurchased include Treasury bonds, agency debt, and agency mortgage-backed securities Additional details about each repo offering will be released each afternoon for the following day's operation, according to the Fed.


Interactive chart of Fed Repurchase Agreements Outstanding: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPTTLD

As of 12/18/19 it shows $13 billion outstanding.
 
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Repos are mostly overnight. Though some can be as long at two weeks.

https://markets.businessinsider.com...d-used-for-2019-9-1028557683#what-are-repos-1

That article is from September 26! LOL keep going...

Moving the goalposts, as always. You said they were overnight only. They're not. You said they were temporary. They're not. You said it was only $50billion. It's not. And no end in sight if you listen to the Fed mouthpieces non-answers when asked about it.
 
That article is from September 26! LOL keep going...

Moving the goalposts, as always. You said they were overnight only. They're not. You said they were temporary. They're not. You said it was only $50billion. It's not. And no end in sight if you listen to the Fed mouthpieces non-answers when asked about it.

Link was to show what repos are. Figures do change over time.

Check the chart showing Repo agreements for the latest figures. As of 12/18 it shows $13 billion outstanding. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPTTLD

Observation:

2019-12-18: $13.362

Units: Billions of US Dollars, Not Seasonally Adjusted

Frequency: Daily

This series is constructed as the aggregated daily amount value of the RRP transactions reported by the New York Fed as part of the Temporary Open Market Operations.

Temporary open market operations involve short-term repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements that are designed to temporarily add or drain reserves available to the banking system and influence day-to-day trading in the federal funds market.

A reverse repurchase agreement (known as reverse repo or RRP) is a transaction in which the New York Fed under the authorization and direction of the Federal Open Market Committee sells a security to an eligible counterparty with an agreement to repurchase that same security at a specified price at a specific time in the future. For these transactions, eligible securities are U.S. Treasury instruments, federal agency debt and the mortgage-backed securities issued or fully guaranteed by federal agencies.
 
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Nobody noticed? A lot of people have noticed. It's been in the news since the repo rates blew out in September. I've posted a lot about it over here:

https://www.pmbug.com/forum/f4/american-reality-check-1033/index12.html#post34232

I didn't mean that I'm the first person to write about it, obviously.

I meant that people aren't seeing this on the evening news.

Fwiw, I maintain that the repo operations are doing multiple things: 1) soaking up growing government debt issuance (QE) as the dollar global standard system is dismantled 2) soaking up the associated dumping of Treasuries by foreign holders that no longer need to hold them as part of that system and the spike in rates that would accompany open market dumping (we saw that briefly end of 2018 and how stocks responded) 3) slipping fresh liquidity to troubled banks like DB. So point is that it's a lot more than just QE4. It's the quiet mechanism they're using to keep rates from spiking as the dollar standard is being unwound.

The following is a fluff piece designed to make everything seem just fine:

The New York Fed injected $58.75 billion into financial markets via two repurchase agreement, or repo, operations. One came in an overnight repo totaling $52.65 billion that saw eligible banks take in far less than the $120 billion the Fed was willing to provide. The Fed’s 13-day repo saw particularly low demand with dealers seeking $6.1 billion against the $35 billion the Fed was willing to offer.

The Fed also bought $7.5 billion in Treasury bills Tuesday. That compared with the $31.18 billion eligible banks wanted to sell to the Fed.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-...e-modest-short-term-rate-pressure-11576599769

Meanwhile, if you go to the NYFed's site and look at the primary dealer data, they're bursting with treasuries.

So, they don't want to borrow overnight or otherwise short term on treasury collateral; they want to sell treasuries outright.

That could still be liquidity issues (good collateral isn't much good if repo markets are nonfunctional), or maybe that collateral isn't so good.

Either way, it's pretty odd.


The metric to see is how many of the borrowers actually pay the overnight/term loans back and how many don't, thus stickingthe Fed with the Treasuries

Look at the ECB's balance sheet.

Most of that is loans, not outright purchases.

Well, they call them loans, but they're perpetually rolled over and will never be repaid, so...

eta: A very under-reported aspect to the repo stuff is that at the same time the repo market broke down, JPM's balance sheet reported a huge shift out of cash and into bond holdings. No details about where those bonds came from but JPM's free cash to loan out disappeared and was replaced by bond holdings. Now the Fed is taking in bonds and giving out cash...

Do you have a source for that?

eta2: CNBC asked Greenspan this morning about repo. Greenspan's answer had absolutely nothing whatsoever to do with repos. Some ramble about P/E ratios, instead. Obviously they don't want to talk at all about what's really going on.

I forgot he was still alive, TBH...

Anyway, tomorrow's ~4:30pm EST release of the Fed's balance sheet should be pretty enlightening.
 
Do you have a source for that?

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/f...ers-stunning-explanation-what-really-happened

source article but pay walled
https://www.ft.com/content/cb88f676-f9a9-11e9-a354-36acbbb0d9b6

I forgot he was still alive, TBH...

He was relatively lucid in the rest of the interview so his ramble about P/E ratios in response to being asked about repos stuck out plainly.

As a side note, at the same time JPM has amassed a 161 million oz physical silver COMEX position and is taking whatever gold they can collect from the (nearly bust) COMEX. They're very quietly following a transformative playbook.
 
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Thanks

That doesn't make sense, though, right?

If JPM's buying treasuries hand over fist, why is the Fed getting oversubscribed?

ZH:

overnight general collateral rate briefly did something nobody had ever expected it to do, when it exploded from 2% to about 10% in minutes, an absolutely unprecedented move, and certainly one that was seen as impossible in a world with an ocean of roughly $1.3 trillion in reserves floating around.

There's a theory floating around that excess reserves aren't really excess reserves.

That is, they're all obligated already in some way, such as in overnight repos.

How else do you explain JPM or anyone else refusing a free arb between IOER and repo, fed funds, or libor?

It has to be either fear of risk (of what?) or simple lack of cash (in which case excess reserves aren't excess).
 
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