I was going over the results of the Republican primaries so far and I thought I'd post what I believe it conclusively reveals and how I feel the remaining states will go:
First of all the Zogby poll on October 20, 2007 results were:
Paul (R) 47%
Brownback (R) 47%
Tancredo (R) 46%
McCain (R) 45%
Hunter (R) 44%
Giuliani (R) 43%
Romney (R) 42%
Thompson (R) 41%
Huckabee (R) 35%
on this poll it also states that 35% said they could never vote for Huckabee.
The reason I posted this poll first was because I think it reveals a lot since the candidates hadn't even done much campaigning yet. Bear in mind we have only been through 4 states thus far and the results have been inconsistent except in Wyoming where campaigning was extremely limited and the voter turnout sucked and only 3 candidates scored anything: Romney Thonpson and McCain in that order. In Iowa the countries first caucus Ron Paul placed 4th with 10% of the vote.
In south Carolina Paul took 5th with 4% of the vote. The interseting and most telling state this far has been Nevada and I'll explain in a minute but Ron Paul placed second with 13 and 3/4 percent of the vote.
Now lets look at what happens next:
I believe that Ron Paul will take: Tx, Ca, Wa, Mt and Ore because these are extremely anti-war, tax and government states. There will be a close race between Mc Cain and Paul in Arizona and a threeway fight between Romney, Huckabee, and Paul in Utah. In Illinois there are 4 Ron Paul offices and only 1 other candidate:Guiliani which will probably give Paul Illinois. The middle states will probably be like it has been thus far trading off front runners.
NY will go to whoever is NOT Guiliani.
The bottom line is that Ron Paul is going to be the leader of the pack once the campaign hits the western states for several reasons:
They Know who he is
They are anti tax
They are anti war
They are anti government intrusion
and they are anti globalism
First of all the Zogby poll on October 20, 2007 results were:
Paul (R) 47%
Brownback (R) 47%
Tancredo (R) 46%
McCain (R) 45%
Hunter (R) 44%
Giuliani (R) 43%
Romney (R) 42%
Thompson (R) 41%
Huckabee (R) 35%
on this poll it also states that 35% said they could never vote for Huckabee.
The reason I posted this poll first was because I think it reveals a lot since the candidates hadn't even done much campaigning yet. Bear in mind we have only been through 4 states thus far and the results have been inconsistent except in Wyoming where campaigning was extremely limited and the voter turnout sucked and only 3 candidates scored anything: Romney Thonpson and McCain in that order. In Iowa the countries first caucus Ron Paul placed 4th with 10% of the vote.
In south Carolina Paul took 5th with 4% of the vote. The interseting and most telling state this far has been Nevada and I'll explain in a minute but Ron Paul placed second with 13 and 3/4 percent of the vote.
Now lets look at what happens next:
I believe that Ron Paul will take: Tx, Ca, Wa, Mt and Ore because these are extremely anti-war, tax and government states. There will be a close race between Mc Cain and Paul in Arizona and a threeway fight between Romney, Huckabee, and Paul in Utah. In Illinois there are 4 Ron Paul offices and only 1 other candidate:Guiliani which will probably give Paul Illinois. The middle states will probably be like it has been thus far trading off front runners.
NY will go to whoever is NOT Guiliani.
The bottom line is that Ron Paul is going to be the leader of the pack once the campaign hits the western states for several reasons:
They Know who he is
They are anti tax
They are anti war
They are anti government intrusion
and they are anti globalism
