Predictions for tomorrow's Texas primary..

[libertybrewcity]

What are YOUR predictions?!

I am going with a Medina second place finish in front of KBH by only a few thousand votes.

 

[Imperial]

Perry 47
Hutchison 30
Medina 23

The race goes into a KBH versus Perry runoff.

White wins the Dem race in a blowout.

Perry wins the runoff in a landslide.

Perry beats white in a close election.

 

[tmosley]

Debra wins in a landslide, obviously. I'm thinking 55-60%, judging from the turnout.

Why else would they have stopped releasing poll numbers?

Drudge has helped us more than Beck ever could have hurt us.

 

[AmericasLastHope]

Why else would they have stopped releasing poll numbers?

That's what I was thinking. Is that normal? Don't they always keep releasing polls up until (and during) election day?

 

[RonPaulFanInGA]

Perry 47
Hutchison 30
Medina 23

The race goes into a KBH versus Perry runoff.

White wins the Dem race in a blowout.

Perry wins the runoff in a landslide.

Perry beats white in a close election.

Sounds about what I'd surmise.

 

[Imperial]

That's what I was thinking. Is that normal? Don't they always keep releasing polls up until (and during) election day?

This is just a primary election... so there won't be as many polls released. If it were really contentious I think you would see more internal polling results showing whoever commissioned the poll in the lead, particularly KBH. But that isn't happening.

 

[libertybrewcity]

Perry 47
Hutchison 30
Medina 23

The race goes into a KBH versus Perry runoff.

White wins the Dem race in a blowout.

Perry wins the runoff in a landslide.

Perry beats white in a close election.

don't you think dems, independents, new voters, and early voters will play a significant role?

 

[Imperial]

don't you think dems, independents, new voters, and early voters will play a significant role?

Yes I do, which is why I also gave Medina a 3 point edge over the PPP poll. Plus the bump I gave her is even more significant when you have many people who will enter the polls thinking they suddenly can't waste their vote when Perry or Hutchison could win and pull the lever for a lesser evil.

So the bump I gave Medina is fairly significant.

You also have to remember not all the Tea Partiers, who are also a really high-turnout group, will not ALL be Medina. True, we will have more support from them than from many other groups, but I think enough will have been turned off by the 9/11 affair or go for wasted vote syndrome to not end up voting for Medina but Perry or Hutchison.

 

[skilt]

perry 41
KBH26
DB23
She lost steam w/ the GB fiasco. In my heart I want to believe, but in my reality I know it won't happen, this time. We're gonna get them eventually, this race is one more step up

 

[rp08orbust]

perry 41
KBH26
DB23
She lost steam w/ the GB fiasco. In my heart I want to believe, but in my reality I know it won't happen, this time. We're gonna get them eventually, this race is one more step up

I assume you meant Perry 51

 

[low preference guy]

Perry 48
Medina 24,0
KBH 23,9

 

[johnrocks]

If Debra hits over 20%, I'll be pleased and will consider it a big step for us all, besides that, I don't have a clue.

 

[rp08orbust]

The best case scenario I can realistically imagine is

Perry 49.9
Medina 25.1
KBH 25.0

This would mean that PPP underestimated Medina's support by a whole 5 points, which would be pretty remarkable considering their accuracy everywhere else, including in the volatile Scott Brown race.

 

[american.swan]

If Debra hits over 20%, I'll be pleased and will consider it a big step for us all, besides that, I don't have a clue.

+1

 

[skilt]

nope

There's other lesser candidates in the race and write ins that gobble up the other 5 to 10 percent

 

[TastyWheat]

Debra just mentioned (at her online townhall) there were over 491,000 early votes in this primary. There were only about 300,000 early votes in 2008 (a presidential primary). Wow!

 

[american.swan]

I'd like to see the Perry Election Cracking Committee's computers give all of Perry's votes to Medina by mistake and see how Perry explains his way out of it.

"Perry you were winning in the polls with 45% of the vote. Can you explain why you got 10% of the vote?"

 

[BuddyRey]

Medina will win, or at least end up in a runoff with Perry. 'Nuff said! ;-)

 

[rprprs]

I will only predict that Perry will not get the 50% he needs to win outright.
Beyond that, we shall see...

GO DEBRA!!!

 

[CoreyBowen999]

Being from Texas I want to believe my fellow Texans will make the right decisionish.

Perry- 48.2%
Medina- 26.3%
KBH- 25.5%