Predict the 2012 Presidential popular vote

[randomname]

2008 was

McCain - 45.66%
Obama - 52.92%
Barr - 0.40%
Nader - 0.56%
Write in - 0.09%

Romney might do a little better than McCain, they're both terrible candidates but McCain was an even bigger doofus and Obama may have lost some supporters. I'm predicting "write in" and Johnson together will get double the number they got in 2008, ie, 1% ish (thanks to Ron Paul).

Even better if it's more than 1%, Romney and Obama tie, and the GOP "blames" Ron Paul supporters for losing the election.

 

[Respect38]

Too early to call, we don't know if Gary Johnson will be in the debates yet.

If he does make the debates, then his numbers will spike. If not, then there's not much set-in-stone Gary Johnson votes from what I can see. Although, I'll say it's probably more than Barr had.

 

[Smart3]

52-45-3

Obama - 52
Romney - 45
Johnson - 2% (little over 2 million)
Stein/Goode/Anderson/Write-in for Paul - 1%

This assumes Goode gets at least 5% of the vote in Virginia. Stein and Anderson should theoretically take a good chunk of the Nader vote as they're endorsed by him, however Stein is the only one on the ballot in many states which went heavily for Nader, so she should do a lot better.

500,000 Stein, 250,000 Goode, 150,000 Anderson, 100,000 for Paul/Lindsay/La Riva/Alexander/etc. (Hard to predict Paul's numbers, because we don't know how many of the 2 million who voted for him in the R primaries will vote for Johnson, Romney or write him in, or vote for Goode/Obama)

I'm assuming Johnson gets most of the Paul vote, and gets close to 25% in NM. (although his numbers have been dropping there)

 

[AdamT]

Too early to call, we don't know if Gary Johnson will be in the debates yet.

If he does make the debates, then his numbers will spike. If not, then there's not much set-in-stone Gary Johnson votes from what I can see. Although, I'll say it's probably more than Barr had.

They will never let GJ into nationally televised debates with the puppet show. He would need what, 12% polling nationally?

 

[jkr]

12on PAUL 99%

 

[alucard13mmfmj]

*tin foil hat*

Obama may lose because his masters are turning on him.

 

[CaptLouAlbano]

I'm going to go with:

Romney 51%
Obama 48%
Johnson >1%
The rest make up the remainder

Electoral votes:

This is where I think the blowout comes from. I poured over polls and trends, because I have nothing else to do and I'm looking at 339-199. I have Obama losing every state that he isn't currently carrying by 8 or more points. So he loses most of the battleground states and even some of the states that most sites currently show as leaning Obama. I really think that Obama is very unpopular, and is losing ground with almost every voting bloc that he carried in 08. Right now there are 16 states where with the MOE it is basically tied or if the MOE goes in Romney's favor he is in the lead. That is not a good position for a sitting president to be in at this stage of the game. Wayne Allen Root wrote a while back that he thinks this will be a landslide. I didn't think so at the time, but the more I study the polls and the trends I am beginning to think he was correct.

 

[donnay]

Obamney will win. I am sure of it.

 

[MozoVote]

I'll shrug the popular vote. But I say Obama gets 320 or more electoral votes.

 

[AFPVet]

I guess that I'll play the conspiracy wacko and choose none of the above due to the elections being canceled. With all of the crap that has happened recently, there could be a "national emergency". Not that it would matter anyways. Rummy or Barry... doesn't matter... same company pulling both of their strings.

 

[BSU kid]

Obama: 54%
Romney: 43.5%
Johnson: 2.5%

 

[ronpaulfollower999]

Evil 98.7%
Random 3rd party candidates 1.3%

 

[Cutlerzzz]

Ron Paul: 112,896,432
Gary Johnsn: 4,218,074
Mitt Romney: 1,047
Obama: 292

 

[TheGrinch]

Obamney will win. I am sure of it.

That is freaking hilarious.

Screw it, forget Gary Johnson, I'm going to start canvassing for Roseanne: