Pre-Super Tuesday national polls, Paul at 4%

[Bradley in DC]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104110/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=392

 

[Vet_from_cali]

lol 4%.... that poll has got to be lying.

 

[Bradley in DC]

lol 4%.... that poll has got to be lying.

Um, two different polls, two different companies, similar results.

 

[Agora]

remember giuliani...

 

[nosebruise]

1-30-08
Never Forgat.

 

[Buzz]

It just doesn't make sense that his support could have actually decreased in the last few months. The word has still been spreading and lots of other candidates have been dropping out.

 

[WATYF]

Ignore poll results at your own peril. This is what the movement did before the first primaries, and they took a huge hit in morale when they found out the polls weren't as "waaaay off" as they assumed they are.

Let's say the worst of the conspiratorial fears are true and the polls are really off by five... maybe even ten points. That still puts Paul at way too low of a level.

The reaction to these polls shouldn't be, "those must be wrong". It should be, "man... we really gotta focus on and develop more strategies that work".


WATYF

 

[cindy25]

its Obama

if Hillary had their nomination locked up things would be different

 

[JoBurke]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/104110/Gallup-Daily-Tracking-Election-2008.aspx

http://people-press.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID=392

Dude really, who cares? stop posting these unimportant polls.

 

[Primbs]

It really is a state by state, congressional district by congressional district contest. If the campaign targets well with their own polling and then implements some great direct mail or cable tv buys they could do quite well.

McCain can't be every where at once and neither can Romney. That gives Ron Paul a chance to win votes where the others are not competing so much.

 

[ronpauleddy]

We'll see how many delegates he picks up!!! screw the polls!

 

[Bradley in DC]

Dude really, who cares? stop posting these unimportant polls.

Well, Dr. Paul for one. Polls are indispensable tools to win elections. The official campaign is using our donations to commission their own polls as well.

 

[Crickett]

We'll see how many delegates he picks up!!! screw the polls!

If anyone called me I would say I was undecided. I will not give them info about RP they can mail to whoever commissioned them. Unfortunately they didn't call me.

 

[colin1]

Well, Dr. Paul for one. Polls are indispensable tools to win elections. The official campaign is using our donations to commission their own polls as well.

Hey Bradley, what's it all mean?

 

[Bradley in DC]

If anyone called me I would say I was undecided. I will not give them info about RP they can mail to whoever commissioned them. Unfortunately they didn't call me.

I got called by Gallup yesterday! I told them Ron Paul "extremely likely"!

 

[Bradley in DC]

Hey Bradley, what's it all mean?

Honestly, the national polls don't mean that much--we don't have national elections that way. In part they reflect Dr. Paul's relatively lower name identification. The most useful part is apples-to-apples: comparing our standing in the same polls over time. Comparing different polls can be problematic because of different methodologies.

We have performed better in most states (except Florida) than our national numbers would indicate. Many, if not most, voters don't pay much attention until it gets closer for them to vote: half in the last month, many of those in the last week, will finally decide for whom to vote. So lots of people who say "McCain" or whomever when asked whom they support just say a name they recognize because they don't want to think they aren't paying attention to this hugely important question. When it comes time for them to look at the candidates, many of them will then learn about and support Dr. Paul.

So, the upshot is that we have a lot of work to do, but that doing the work getting the message out, and identifying and turning out our supporters can win elections for us.

The state polls with crosstabs (support broken down by demographics such as age, party registration, gender, race, geography, issues, etc.) can be extremely useful tailoring messages to win support.

 

[Bradley in DC]

Rasmussen, Paul at 5%

In the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, it’s John McCain at 33%, Mitt Romney at 30%, and Mike Huckabee at 22%. Ron Paul is supported by 5% of Likely Republican Primary Voters (see recent daily numbers). Rasmussen Reports includes only voters likely to participate in a primary election in this sample. That is a more conservative segment of the Republican Party and more focused on the election at this time.

Daily tracking results are collected via nightly telephone surveys and reported on a four-day rolling average basis. The next Presidential Tracking Poll update is scheduled for Tuesday at 11:00 a.m.

Other national surveys based upon interviews with adults or registered voters show a larger lead for McCain. The Rasmussen Reports data shows some “Anybody-but-McCain” support building for Romney among activists. The other data suggests that most Republicans will ultimately embrace McCain if he is nominated. Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is overwhelmingly expected to be the nominee (current prices: McCain 87.8%).

McCain has solid leads in the winner-take-all states of New Jersey, New York, Arizona, and Connecticut. California, Georgia, Missouri and Tennessee are close while McCain also leads in Alabama and Illinois. Romney leads in Massachusetts (see summary of Rasmussen Reports Super Tuesday polls).

 

[colin1]

Honestly, the national polls don't mean that much--we don't have national elections that way. In part they reflect Dr. Paul's relatively lower name identification. The most useful part is apples-to-apples: comparing our standing in the same polls over time. Comparing different polls can be problematic because of different methodologies.

We have performed better in most states (except Florida) than our national numbers would indicate. Many, if not most, voters don't pay much attention until it gets closer for them to vote: half in the last month, many of those in the last week, will finally decide for whom to vote. So lots of people who say "McCain" or whomever when asked whom they support just say a name they recognize because they don't want to think they aren't paying attention to this hugely important question. When it comes time for them to look at the candidates, many of them will then learn about and support Dr. Paul.

So, the upshot is that we have a lot of work to do, but that doing the work getting the message out, and identifying and turning out our supporters can win elections for us.

The state polls with crosstabs (support broken down by demographics such as age, party registration, gender, race, geography, issues, etc.) can be extremely useful tailoring messages to win support.

Thanks for the cogent analysis.

 

[Bradley in DC]

Thanks for the cogent analysis.

Sure. Here's what we can do:
http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=72640