PPP tweets: NH and SC polls out on Saturday, and more..

[bluesc]

There will be 3 SC polls before the voting begins. They will be weekly.

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
We're going to have the 1st of 3 South Carolina tracking polls out on Saturday

They will be running two way race polls between Romney and Ron, which will be relevant for the later parts of the race.

ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling
Testing one on ones with Romney v. Paul/Santorum/Perry/Gingrich from now on in addition to full field on our GOP polls

NH poll will be out between 10-11 ET on Saturday

Our final New Hampshire poll will come out on Sunday night, most likely between 10 and 11.

Also, NC poll will be out around that time.

PPP polls are the most credible IMO, so these will be really important.

 

[AngryCanadian]

Hopefully Good News CSPAN Was it? Caught Obama talking on Ron Paul

 

[sailingaway]

Yeah, but are the polls going to just be amongst GOP or let in others? Because they will CREATE an impression of Ron not doing well if they don't poll at least indies.

I tweeted:

usernamenuse sailing
@
@ppppolls only GOP? Because there are many cross over and open primaries and it makes HUGE dif to @RonPaul numbers v others

They are the ones themselves who said CNN's fake poll CREATED the Santorum surge, so if they only poll GOP, it has to be intentional. I hope they really want to know, not change the numbers. Unfortunately, they are a Dem polling company and only Ron threatens OBAMA's voting base.

 

[bluesc]

Yeah, but are the polls going to just be amongst GOP or let in others?

They included independents in Iowa. They were polling GOP only in Texas early, but since then they have been transparent and seem to be the only pollster actually aiming for accuracy rather than changing the narrative.

 

[PastaRocket848]

There will be 3 SC polls before the voting begins. They will be weekly.



They will be running two way race polls between Romney and Ron, which will be relevant for the later parts of the race.



NH poll will be out between 10-11 ET on Saturday



Also, NC poll will be out around that time.

PPP polls are the most credible IMO, so these will be really important.

why is PPO "the most credible"? because they tend to show Paul high? they were wildly off in their last IA poll. they are a democratic polling firm. there is no reason whatsoever to believe they are the "most credible". i do like that they tweet hints, though.

 

[bluesc]

why is PPO "the most credible"? because they tend to show Paul high? they were wildly off in their last IA poll. they are a democratic polling firm. there is no reason whatsoever to believe they are the "most credible". i do like that they tweet hints, though.

They are transparent and provide 200+ pages of crosstabs while Rasmussen provides none, CNN provides crap and the rest overpoll Republicans and underpoll independents. Yes, PPP is the most credible.

 

[mwkaufman]

why is PPO "the most credible"? because they tend to show Paul high? they were wildly off in their last IA poll. they are a democratic polling firm. there is no reason whatsoever to believe they are the "most credible". i do like that they tweet hints, though.

They were the only pollster that had Santorum within five points of Romney. If you take their numbers, they have 7% undecided, but add in 3% that left Bachmann, 3% that left Huntsman, and 1% that left Gingrich. With the 14% undecided, if 7% went to Santorum, 6% to Romney, and 1% to Paul the results match up perfectly. And I don't think any of these are particularly outlandish assumptions.

 

[Brett85]

PPP had Ron winning Iowa by 1% while Ron lost by 3%, so it looks like they actually might have a little bit of a pro Ron bias or anti Romney bias.

 

[sailingaway]

why is PPO "the most credible"? because they tend to show Paul high? they were wildly off in their last IA poll. they are a democratic polling firm. there is no reason whatsoever to believe they are the "most credible". i do like that they tweet hints, though.

They are only accurate near to a contest. Actually they show Ron LOW or refused to poll him when he met their criteria. They are DEM pollsters. If they rank people agst Romney (Ron v Romney) etc and don't include at least indies in polling it will be designed to push Ron down because a TON of Ron's votes in IA came from indies and crossovers and THAT is the only part of the GOP primary that worries PPP. It's impact on Obama. Note Obama is suddenly changing foreign policy closer to Ron etc. Iowa's turn out demographics, I think, play a big part of that.

I just had a twitter conversation w/ them and notably they didn't respond when I clarified that my concern about polling indies was in the Romney v other contender portion of their intended polls, because of Ron's unusual support.

 

[Brett85]

They are transparent and provide 200+ pages of crosstabs while Rasmussen provides none, CNN provides crap and the rest overpoll Republicans and underpoll independents. Yes, PPP is the most credible.

Rasmussen provides crosstabs, but you just have to be a premium member and pay a fee each month to read them.

 

[bluesc]

PPP had Ron winning Iowa by 1% while Ron lost by 3%, so it looks like they actually might have a little bit of a pro Ron bias or anti Romney bias.

CNN also had Ron winning by 1% in entrance polls. People change minds at the caucuses.

 

[bluesc]

Rasmussen provides crosstabs, but you just have to be a premium member and pay a fee each month to read them.

They also poll only Republicans, as does CNN. Independents can vote too (and Ron wins upwards of 50% of them).

 

[James Madison]

PPP had Ron winning Iowa by 1% while Ron lost by 3%, so it looks like they actually might have a little bit of a pro Ron bias or anti Romney bias.

They had Ron at 21%, which is what he got. Bachmann and Perry underperformed according to their poll numbers, and their supports jumped ship to Romney and Santorum, giving each a 3-4% bump.

 

[da32130]

here is the exact response to sailing:

@usernamenuse We poll each state according to its rules on who's eligible to vote, we'll be polling independents where appropriate

 

[pauliticalfan]

PPP nailed Ron's percentage. It's Romney/Santorum that got the last-minute undecideds, which they had no way of knowing but were hinting at. PPP is credible, if for nothing else than looking at Ron's percentage.

 

[sailingaway]

here is the exact response to sailing:

@usernamenuse We poll each state according to its rules on who's eligible to vote, we'll be polling independents where appropriate

And I responded to that pointing out I wasn't talking about the primary polls but about the poll they said they were going to be doing with Romney v others head to head in primaries. They are creating a narrative about who would be the best Romney opponent in the primary but if they only poll GOP they will never show Ron's strength. A BIG amount of Ron's vote in Iowa was non GOP.

 

[PastaRocket848]

PPP nailed Ron's percentage. It's Romney/Santorum that got the last-minute undecideds, which they had no way of knowing but were hinting at. PPP is credible, if for nothing else than looking at Ron's percentage.

24 != 21 last time I checked. Or was it 20? I don't even remember. PPP seems to have a pro-Paul bias. They are the only ones who overestimated his support in Iowa. The rest were far more accurate.

 

[mwkaufman]

24 != 21 last time I checked. Or was it 20? I don't even remember. PPP seems to have a pro-Paul bias. They are the only ones who overestimated his support in Iowa. The rest were far more accurate.

Last one had him at 20%, and he got 21.4%. Seems reasonable, especially with 7% undecided.

 

[BUSHLIED]

Evey poll has margin of error and variance due to known and unknown variables. Any poll that was within 1.5 points is pretty damn good, considering it was a caucus with undecided etc...