Positive Messages from Iowa (READ IT-- You won't be sorry)

[erran speaker]

i wanted to post here to bump the wonderful first post in this thread.
i also want to alleviate concerns about new hampshire. we do not need to win or place 2nd. many of our independent potential voters are going to go to obama and mccain to support their tight races. our numbers should be 15% or beat mike huckabee (who will likely get third coming out of iowa with a strong win) for a phenomenal finish. beating giuliani and thompson both would be a sufficient victory - and then some.
fourth or 15% is all we need to remain nationally viable and accelerate the debate. beating huckabee or scoring 20% positions us for a win, but we don't need that.
thanks for letting me express my opinion,
erran

 

[Greg in VA]

Iowa went fine guys. While the result was not quite as quite good as we would have liked today, there are plenty of positives to take out of Iowa and we are in a much better position than many of our competitors. Below are some positive messages we should be using when we talk about Iowa to friends, family, undecided voters and the media.

(1) Contrary to what some here believe, we did significantly outperform our polls, just as we had been saying we would do all along.

According to Real Clear Politics, we were polling at 7.3% in the last five polls taken before the caucus (on average) yet, as of writing this, we are at 10.0%, meaning that we performed more than 37% better than we polled. That is a substantial overperformance—about twice as good as anyone else in the field.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/iowa-primary.html

(2) Despite the fact that we put very little effort into Iowa until very late in the game and despite the fact that Ron Paul spent less time in Iowa than any other candidate (in a state where in-person campaigning is essential) and despite our shabby treatment by the mainstream media we still were just 3 points out of third place.

(3) We destroyed former front-runner Rudy Giuliani—absolutely destroyed him with almost triple his vote total—and don’t be fooled—Rudy didn’t compete here because he couldn’t compete not because he didn’t want to.

(4) The winner in Iowa, Mike Huckabee, is completely unacceptable to large portions of the Republican party from Rush Limbaugh to the National Review crowd. Iowa has a much higher percentage of evangelicals than will primaries coming forward. Huckabee ain’t going to win New Hampshire and has little national organization.

(5) Meanwhile, of the other contenders, it was an unmitigated disaster for each of them. Despite spending tons of time and million of $ in Iowa Romney was crushed. And he’s going to lose to McCain in New Hampshire. McCain meanwhile, did not get the bounce that he needed from this performance. He is still low on cash and though he is likely to win New Hampshire it’s not obvious how he does well afterwards. Thompson’s performance was likewise weak given his sole focus on Iowa and his one time front-runner status. He is going absolutely nowhere in New Hampshire. He is also totally out of money. He may drop out of the race soon. Meanwhile Giuliani was embarrassed in Iowa and is toast going forward.

(6) Exit polls suggest that we WON Independent Voters, who are the key crossover constituency that a Republican candidate is going to need to win in the general election.

So where does that leave us? We have a wide open race right now. We are likely to be top 3 in Wyoming and we should also do fairly well in South Carolina and Nevada, where we have spent time building our base while everyone else was in Iowa.

Virtually every other candidate is broke and with the exception of Huckabee, they won’t pull in more money based on their Iowa performance. Meanwhile, we have millions in the bank and with our huge grassroots base, we can easily raise millions more. That money will matter a lot more in states that, unlike Iowa don’t allow candidates to meet every voter. This is where we begin to use our finances to our advantage.

We’re not going to have a clear winner going into Super Tuesday on Feb. 5th. Right now, we have a large funding base and the organization to get out our message and reach voters. Almost all our competition doesn’t because they have spent all of their time and money in Iowa and New Hampshire. While it is still an uphill fight for the nomination (as it always was, eternal optimists on this forum aside) we are coming out of Iowa in a better position than we came in and we are well placed to do some real damage in the primaries going forward.

The Revolution Continues!

Easily one of the best posts on this forum

I don't post or bump much and I've only been here a few weeks. Deal with it.

This is the best post I've seen here since I got back here at 9:30 CST from my first ever REPUBLICAN PARTY MEETING so I can eventually become a delegate for RON PAUL FOR PRESIDENT. Three weeks into what couls be the Mother of Revolutions and she has me going to uncomfortable neocon-infested party meetings. And sign bombing. And freezing my ass off for New Years Eve stumping in communist Madison, Wisconsin getting called a racist KKK supporter (sigh). And driving around risking cop troubles with two yard signs in my rear glass. Or tire slashing maybe even (happened last election here in good ole' Milwaukee).

WoW marches and tiresome Youtoob honorarium (except for a select few - aravoth, ghoberx, eliberty come to mind) and Digg this and endless bumps for blimps and moneybombs by the same people over and over again. I'd wager my last remaining testicle that most of you marching on warcraft havent set foot outside to do a sign bomb - over 200 people easy. I lurk this forum instead of my morning paper, the evening Simpsons/FamilyGuy syndis, and cleaning the house. So many here think this is just a focking game. Not to me it isnt. Ima 35 year old guy who's going to pay dearly for this country's mistakes. It makes me sick to my stomach, unproductive in my business, uninterested in dating and starting a family... a focking depression case. This is my shining star. This is our last chance to save this nation. I know it in my heart as I have known we are doomed my entire adult life.

ACTIVATE: Get into a meetup and GET IT ORGANIZED. Meetup.com is inflexible so create a website as a companion to it. Many of us (me too) will host it for nothing. Lots of people like the groovy-collective-disorder of grassroots. Show me where that works in business. You can't. Get managers and some order in your groups.

TRUTHERS: Leave 9/11 at the door. Others have said it here... 9/11 will be fast forgotten when you are standing in a soup line in a refugee camp. I thank the truthers for getting the early message out there. But really, I don't care about 9/11 anymore, it was terrible but I am over it. Ya, I said that.

GET OUTDOORS: While your sitting here reading this print some of the plethora of PDF's available and put them everywhere you can. I have Google RON PAUL signs covering the east side of Milwaukee's power poles. Hundreds. I did this myself, one person.

SO GET OFF YOUR ASSES AND GET HIM INTO OFFICE!!!

I apologize for the rant, but I have read so much here that many of you seem like family/friends. I needed my brief soapbox. Back to lurk mode.

Probably a close second, and something for everyone here to consider, we all have a responsiblity to bear if this is going to go to fruition. Everyone here needs to do something aside from posting on this forum in particular boots on the ground type things, canvassing your neighborhood/friends, put up signs, or bumper stickers, it is in our hands now to preserve the Republic.

 

[CHeath]

Who is the "Ron Paul Campaign"? and what are we going to do from here?

First thing we need to do is step back from the inevitable feelings of disappointment that Ron Paul did not place at least third in Iowa and take an objective look at what happened and where are we going to take the campaign from here.

Let's gather the facts.

Ron Paul Came in 5th overall, but third, fourth, and fifth, place were statistically close.
Thompson and McCain did not do that much better than Ron Paul.
In fact, Ron Paul was the only one out of these three that actually came in first in one of the County precincts.

Ron Paul came in #2 in 4 Counties
Ron Paul came in #3 in 12 Counties
Ron Paul came in #4 in 19 Counties
10,489 total votes from my count, at 1:00 am last night, off the Iowa GOP website.
The vote totals for each precinct changed at least once even as I counted, so I counted them twice.

And he did this in spite of the fact that both Thompson and McCain spent more time traveling around Iowa getting face to face with likely voters that Ron Paul did. (See NYTimes map)
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/schedules/pastevents/index.html#candidate99
Kudos to the grassroot effort for this!
*RP official campaign note* - What should you have done better?

The New York Times map looks like it does not accurately show all of Ron Pauls campaign visits. It is missing any indication of Ron Paul's visits to the South Carolina area.
Why is that?
The grassroot supporters showed up for these events and they are working hard to spread the word the best they know how and to capture media attention. These events are all over You Tube and other internet video sites.
RP official campaign note* - Are you making sure the media is informed about the events?

All grassroot efforts are like herding cats when it comes to organizing effective efforts toward the goal. The advantage in this grassroot effort is that we are enthusiatic and we agree on the goal:
Get Ron Paul elected. Period.


Does the grassroot effort need to mature and focus on additional effective efforts that gets Ron Paul elected? YES
Does the 'Official RP Campaign' need to do a better job of informing and steering the focus? YES
********************
Good things to do and good questions to ask the day after the Iowa Caucus:

Pay attention to the ZOGBY polling
Zogby Tracking: McCain Leads Romney
http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/.../2008/01/04/61730.html?s=al&promo_code=424B-1
Register at Zogby to participate in surveys.(?)

READ THE NOVAK REPORTS Bob Novak did a pretty good job of predicting the Iowa results. http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?print=yes&id=24293

READ THE AFTER IOWA ANALYSIS IN THE NEWS:
NewsMax and Human Events are the news sources that the Republican base reads.

Iowa Caucuses Loom Large:
http://interactive.zogby.com/s/qp/inew.cfm?ID=201&pass=ugi003kTCW

Why did Huckabee win in Iowa?

Huck Will Win
http://www.newsmax.com/politics/republican_nominee/2008/01/02/61203.html?s=al&promo_code=4248-1
Huckabee Wins Iowa Evangelical Turn Out
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24271

Will he win or lose elsewhere?

"Why Huckabee may be a fluke"
http://news.newsmax.com/?NWYVDi0ujq...w.newsmax.com/kessler/?s=al&promo_code=424B-1

Why did Thompson and McCain do slightly better than Paul?

Thompson's Retail Politics:
http://www.humanevents.com/article.php?id=24222#continueA
Huckabee Stumbles and McCain Surges (post Iowa article from Michael Reagan)
http://www.newsmax.com/reagan/huckabee_mccain/2008/01/04/61736.html

How can the RP campaign (official AND grassroot) achieve more success in NH?
How can the RP campaign (official AND grassroot) achieve more success in SC?
How can the RP campaign (official AND grassroot) achieve more success in Feb?

Realize that the grassroot supporters HAVE TO raise their level of understanding about how Party Politics in the US works and act accordingly.

Ron Paul is a Republican candidate. That means that lots of people who want to see him elected HAVE TO get involved in the local, State and national Republican party meetings.
And don't join as a stealth Ron Paul supporter.
SAY IT LOUD AND SAY IT PROUD_ AS REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.
(and I say this as a lifelong independent)

The Republican Party campaign machine decided early that their strategy was frighten their base with fears of terrorists everywhere and fear of Hillary as President. They thought this strategy could get Guilliani elected as "America's 9/11 Mayor".
This strategy could be going bust but the base is still afraid of terrorists and Hillary.
Guilliani is losing support so the GOP WILL have a back-up candidate. They will get behind Huckabee, McCain Romney, or Thompson if Guilliani's chances really go down the drain.

The GOP used the "religious right" vote to elect Bush.
The religous right base is still the majority in the local precinct meetings.
But they aren't large groups in these local meetings so they can easily be outnumbered or converted away from the politics of fear.

The GOP elite does not want to support Ron Paul for President.
They are doing all they can to undermine his support and to put his supporters on the defensive. WE NEED TO SPEAK UP AND SHOW THEM THAT RP supporters ARE A LARGE VOTING BLOCK THAT THEY CANNOT IGNORE.
We need to be upfront with the GOP that the only reason why we are joining the Republican campaign is to support Ron Paul and do plan to leave if they don't give RP enough support to make a decent run for President.
The GOP knows that the religious right vote has lost the clout it once had and might not help in many States. The GOP was very much aware of the lost financial support they felt from the disallusioned conservative base during their losing 2007 elections.

All the sign making and the internet videos has been a successful strategy to counter the media predjudice against the Ron Paul campaign, but it has limitations.
We can't rely on sign making and sign waving events as heavily as we are. This type of public visibilty won't translate into enough votes on it's own.
It could backfire if the public gets weary of seeing signs everywhere. The signs could become roadside litter in the eyes of the public.

The Money Bombs were a success and raised the attention of the media, but future "bombs" are going to get noticed less and less. There are so many money bomb ideas floating around right now that it's starting to look chaotic and counterproductive.
It's really is time to focus on a steady sustaining fund raising effort instead.

The Official Campaign needs to step up to the plate and get beyond their reluctance to take the lead on where the campaign is going. DO SOMETHING! SHOW MORE ENTHUSIASM!
Take advantage of the incredible pool of talented IT people out there that want to help the campaign. COMMUNICATE with the supporters for more than just funds.

RON PAUL for PRESIDENT!

Together we can do it!