Depends.
If the Republicans are tired of jumping in bed with Murdoch and the Neocons and losing, then Rand has it in the bag. But if the Republicans still want to hear the sweet, soothing sounds of people telling them they have to kick the world's asses because everyone in the whole wide globe is wrong but them, and they want to hear this crap more than they want to win, then Rand has no chance at all.
Guess we'll see. Won't we?