Physical Gold and Silver shortage

I'm not saying it's imminent but what usually happens with both silver and gold is that more people sell out of capitulation and give up on it because they grow impatient or fear of downside enters the market. It takes months of falling or stagnant pricing to get them to sell. Very few are savvy enough to sell at the top. I'm not saying the near-term top is definitely in, however I can say with confidence that most will disbelieve at the first correction and hold on - then more will "give up" when it stagnates for months, even years. If you don't believe me, look at a long-term chart. I was there through it all.

When wars happen, it's the currency that firms up the most. The dollar will get stronger. Although there is a bullish anticipation of demand for tech like "AI", this actual demand has not been firmly established quantifiably, nor has its timeline. I do expect a sounder monetary policy eventually and a long period like other times of a steady but boring price for both gold and silver. I can see silver settling back to a new range in the low 30's to mid 40's as its new happy place which can last for another 10-15 years. It's just silver. Neither does gold belong anywhere over 4k. This also means the cryptos are going to back off and get boring, and probably the equities market. Fiat currencies are the lifeblood of governments and banks. They have always managed to maintain them and I see no reason why that won't happen again.
 
Yes, except that the price action in silver and gold are not being driven by investors. Gold is being propelled by central banks with China leading the charge as they build a new global trading system based upon RMB/gold and silver is being propelled by industrial demand for solar and EVs/batteries which is experiencing tremendous growth. Silver could stumble if there is a global economic depression, but I think gold will keep marching on pretty much regardless. The war = strong dollar might not play out this time around as the BRICS have eschewed the dollar milkshake in favor of the gold milkshake. Silver is also (IMO) very close to realizing a physical supply shock. London (LBMA) is running out of free float stock.
 
Snowball said:
Fiat currencies are the lifeblood of governments and banks. They have always managed to maintain them and I see no reason why that won't happen again.
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That's some nice conventional wisdom. But these times are far from normal.

The government has been borrowing and spending for a hundred years, but the pace the last five years is astounding. At the same time, there is a major push toward a cashless society. One way to eliminate cash is to change over from one currency to another. We have seen that done in history, in Weimar Germany, in Zimbabwe. The public resistance to change was, in most or all cases, worn away by inflation. People are willing to switch currencies when the old one has failed. So, there is substantial reason to believe that the government is purposely destroying the FRN. They have motive. Very little else would explain their unprecedented (in this country), reckless behavior.

Again, the rate of borrowing and inflation is unprecedented in this country. When things are different than they have ever been before -- substantially different -- relying on conventional wisdom is obviously unwise.

Yes, of course "prices" will "stabilize", but be honest with yourself. You don't know what currency will be in use when that happens. That is the very thing which is driving the values of PMs. Maybe they are overvalued, and the "prices" have "risen" more than you would expect of something maintaining value measured on a "scale" which is changing.

And using the FRN to measure the value of anything right now is nearly impossible. It's like trying to convert celsius to fahrenheit when fahrenheit is changing, when water still boils at 100°C, but now boils at 137°F instead of 212.

I'm holding until I feel sure that the currency I'm trading it for is the currency that'll still be in use in six months. Don't know about you. And since, if it does change, it'll almost certainly change to a cashless and controlled CBDC, I might not sell then. I may barter one piece at a time, for groceries, from here on out.
 
I haven't been diligent in posting updates to this thread, but currently there appears to be a physical supply shortage of silver developing in both Japan and China. Separately, India has reportedly doubled their monthly imports of silver. While that's happening, western ETFs added over 800 tons of silver to their vault stock in September and that is coming straight out of the LBMA's dwindling free float. We're getting close to a real silversqueeze.
 
Pro tip: Just because you read it on the internet...

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The only 1965 quarters with any silver at all in them are proof quarters. 1965 quarters will never even have value to coin collectors because they struck the hell out of them for three years straight. Somebody was trying to say "pre-1965", or "1964 and older".

They were also trying to say "$8.60", but appear to have been stoned at the time.
 
If only I had a stack of 1965 quarters to sell to him/her at 90% silver prices.
 
pmbug said:
We're getting close to a real silversqueeze.
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Don't you know LBMA has been feeling for months like the captain of the Titanic after spotting the iceberg and realizing that the ship can't possibly stop in time.
 
... Traders described a market where liquidity has almost entirely dried up, leaving anyone short spot silver struggling to source metal and forced to pay crippling borrowing costs to roll their positions to a later date.

And the squeeze has become so dramatic that some traders have rushed to book slots in the cargo holds of transatlantic flights for bulky silver bars — an expensive mode of transport typically reserved for more valuable gold — to profit off the massive premiums in London.
...
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More:
 
I'm back into 6 figures again today with my silver... REALLY fighting the urge to sell some.
 
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