Peter Schiff 'Before Obama Leaves Office' Prediction

[TheCount]

Most communist countries have near 0% unemployment. So did cavemen. Standard of living is what counts.

K. So, what's the trend on that? Negative?

 

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

K. So, what's the trend on that? Negative?

Not gonna happen.

 

[NorthCarolinaLiberty]

And ours is still one of the highest in the world.

Nope.

 

[openfire]

@ 4:37

"Learn how to trade with real macro economic understanding for free"

Spare us. Since 2009, in a nutshell:

Peter Schiff is right. Let's have this conversation when if the Fed unwinds its balance sheet.

 

[devil21]

The Fed unwind will likely take form as a nationalization of the Fed and repudiation of the debt and government seizure of assets it holds. At that point, those that put faith in digital "assets" will realize that they never owned anything. That's when the scramble for hard assets goes into a fever pitch.

Eventually it becomes too tiring to argue with the banker shill army on RPF. Their entire arguments are based on very carefully chosen wording, instead of pure logic and conceptual thinking. Here's an example:

Nope- no "Austrian style" hyperinflation in the United States.

See what he did there? I never said anything about hyperinflation in the United States. Most of the Fed's secret FOMC money printing has ended up outside of the United States. Most of the monetary inflation has been exported. For example, Belgian Fed shell companies sucking up Treasuries the last few years, off the Fed's books. Never mind that the "United States" is the name of the corporate government, not the land mass.

Worth noting that a movie being released Friday the 27th is called "GOLD" and one of the loglines is something like "The chase begins now!" Sounds a little too much like a warning to me.

 

[Zippyjuan]

See what he did there? I never said anything about hyperinflation in the United States. Most of the Fed's secret FOMC money printing has ended up outside of the United States. Most of the monetary inflation has been exported. For example, Belgian Fed shell companies sucking up Treasuries the last few years, off the Fed's books. Never mind that the "United States" is the name of the corporate government, not the land mass.

So where is there hyperinflation now? Venezuela perhaps.

 

[devil21]

So where is there hyperinflation now? Venezuela perhaps.

Hyperinflation is a money printing phenomenon. A monetary function, not a price symptom. The price inflation component requires velocity of money on top of huge increases in money supply. Venezuela has both components ongoing. We only have one component, for now, likely changing soon. The FRN has been hyperinflated across the entire planet.

 

[Dr.No.]

@ 4:37

"Learn how to trade with real macro economic understanding for free"

Spare us. Since 2009, in a nutshell:

Peter Schiff is right. Let's have this conversation when if the Fed unwinds its balance sheet.

Look at the percentage change.

Moreover, correlation does not equal causation. The Fed increasing its balance sheets means almost nothing to the private sector in terms of asset valuation. All the Fed was doing was replacing interest-bearing assets with money. While low interest rates certainly helped with growth, corporations and businesses have had record profits...that is what is driving the stock market more than anything. If you think the Fed swapping assets suddenly made companies sell more goods...

The Fed unwind will likely take form as a nationalization of the Fed and repudiation of the debt and government seizure of assets it holds. At that point, those that put faith in digital "assets" will realize that they never owned anything. That's when the scramble for hard assets goes into a fever pitch.

Why would the debt be repudiated? The government prints the currency. They can't go bankrupt. Unless a loon decided to push for bankruptcy...there are no fundamental reasons the government could ever go bankrupt.

The vast majority of obligations out there have to be paid in dollars. Your taxes have to be paid in dollars. That creates a huge demand for dollars. Even if the US were to declare bankruptcy and demand for US debt plummeted, you'd still need dollars to pay off your mortgage, your bills, your taxes, etc.

See what he did there? I never said anything about hyperinflation in the United States. Most of the Fed's secret FOMC money printing has ended up outside of the United States. Most of the monetary inflation has been exported. For example, Belgian Fed shell companies sucking up Treasuries the last few years, off the Fed's books. Never mind that the "United States" is the name of the corporate government, not the land mass.

Extraordinary claims require evidence.

Worth noting that a movie being released Friday the 27th is called "GOLD" and one of the loglines is something like "The chase begins now!" Sounds a little too much like a warning to me.

Since you are accusing everyone of being a shill for the banks, let me accuse you of being a shell for the gold-selling, disaster-nuts out there. How much are they paying you to sound doom and gloom, driving people to buy gold and guns?

Heck, the above line is exactly what people like Alex Jones do...see warnings and conspiracies everywhere.

Hyperinflation is a money printing phenomenon. A monetary function, not a price symptom. The price inflation component requires velocity of money on top of huge increases in money supply. Venezuela has both components ongoing. We only have one component, for now, likely changing soon. The FRN has been hyperinflated across the entire planet.

Actually, hyperinflation is a Gundam phenomenon of the ratio of twinkies to flowers in the world. Hyperinflation is a monetary phenomenon as some people describe it, even though the vast majority of people use it to mean effective inflation. Why? Because it doesn't matter a damn if money is printed at high levels, if it does not affect the price level. You don't even need money printing to cause price inflation if the private banking system expands credit too rapidly.

 

[devil21]

Dr. No, before I decide whether to continue to engage you, why do you still refuse to acknowledge that the US government has been bankrupt since 1933? This is a simple premise that must be acknowledged before any further discussion/debate can be fruitful. If you do not accept this premise then you simply have no foundation of knowledge to understand what's really going on and I would be forced to rebuild your knowledge base from the ground up. I'm not sure it is worth the effort.

 

[toathis]

Happy 20k Schiffbots!

 

[devil21]

Happy 20k Schiffbots!

I wonder how long the stock ramp lasts if/when the sizable portion of illegal immigrants that make up the bulk of labor for house builders/renovators/contractors, agriculture companies, landscapers, etc and all of the other economic sectors that indirectly rely heavily on their labor (Home Depot sales, for example) go into hiding, leave voluntarily or are rounded up. Sure, I guess Goldman stock can ramp the Dow into the stratosphere practically on it's own like it's been doing lately, but there's definitely sectors and many small businesses that are going to be s-c-r-e-w-e-d when their cheap labor disappears.

Anyone thinking about any projects that use illegal's labor best do it asap. Is it any wonder DR Horton builders had a huge Q4?

 

[Zippyjuan]

Hyperinflation is a money printing phenomenon. A monetary function, not a price symptom. The price inflation component requires velocity of money on top of huge increases in money supply. Venezuela has both components ongoing. We only have one component, for now, likely changing soon. The FRN has been hyperinflated across the entire planet.

Evidence to support your claim? How much has the supply of FRNs increased across the entire planet?

"It is hidden!" "It is secret!" If there is hyperinflation in the supply of dollars, it is going to be extremely easy to see.

For example, Belgian Fed shell companies sucking up Treasuries the last few years, off the Fed's books.

Foreign holders of US debt have nothing to do with any alleged hyperinflation of the US dollar. But how much is currently held in Belgium? $113.5 billion. Not much of our $20 trillion debt. http://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt Japan has nearly ten times that amount. The Fed has twenty times that.

(Belgium is the financial capital of Europe and many US Treasuries are used there as collateral against large loans)

 

[devil21]

Evidence to support your claim? How much has the supply of FRNs increased across the entire planet?

Be a peach and post a chart for us about all FOMC operations. That would answer your question and be very helpful to us all. Naturally, I became suspicious when I heard about this:

 

[Dr.No.]

Be a peach and post a chart for us about all FOMC operations. That would answer your question and be very helpful to us all. Naturally, I became suspicious when I heard about this:

I mean...that video just demonstrates Grayson's total lack of understanding of the system.

As Berneke pointed out, it was a loan. An asset of the Fed. They were not handing out dollars.

Central banks of foreign nations have accounts with the Fed, just like domestic banks do. They use those accounts to handle foreign transactions; when you buy a product made in China, your checking accounts is debited, then your bank's account at the Federal Reserve is debited, then PBC's account at the Fed is credited, and then the producer's account in China is credited in either dollars or renminbi.

When the financial crises hit, those foreign banks were also short dollars. They needed to meet demand for physical cash, they needed to deal with a shrinking trade deficit with the US, they had to deal with transactional flows heading back to the US, and they needed to quickly get more solvent assets. The Federal Reserve provided that in the form of those swaps on a short-term basis. Now, the total level of swaps is under a billion.

 

[devil21]

I mean...that video just demonstrates Grayson's total lack of understanding of the system.

As Berneke pointed out, it was a loan. An asset of the Fed. They were not handing out dollars.
blah blah blah blah

We can discuss that, but first: Are you going to answer my post above about the 1933 bankruptcy?

 

[Dr.No.]

We can discuss that, but first: Are you going to answer my post above about the 1933 bankruptcy?

I would ask that you answer my posts first.

 

[Zippyjuan]

Liquidity swaps: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_liquidityswaps.htm

Dollar Liquidity Swap Lines
In response to mounting pressures in bank funding markets, the FOMC announced in December 2007 that it had authorized dollar liquidity swap lines with the European Central Bank and the Swiss National Bank to provide liquidity in U.S. dollars to overseas markets, and subsequently authorized dollar liquidity swap lines with each of the following central banks: the Reserve Bank of Australia, the Banco Central do Brasil, the Bank of Canada, Danmarks Nationalbank, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Korea, the Banco de Mexico, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Norges Bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Sveriges Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank. Those arrangements terminated on February 1, 2010.

In May 2010, the FOMC announced that in response to the re-emergence of strains in short-term U.S. dollar funding markets it had authorized dollar liquidity swap lines with the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank. In October 2013, the Federal Reserve and these central banks announced that their existing temporary liquidity swap arrangements--including the dollar liquidity swap lines--would be converted to standing arrangements that will remain in place until further notice.

In general, these swaps involve two transactions. When a foreign central bank draws on its swap line with the Federal Reserve, the foreign central bank sells a specified amount of its currency to the Federal Reserve in exchange for dollars at the prevailing market exchange rate. The Federal Reserve holds the foreign currency in an account at the foreign central bank. The dollars that the Federal Reserve provides are deposited in an account that the foreign central bank maintains at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. At the same time, the Federal Reserve and the foreign central bank enter into a binding agreement for a second transaction that obligates the foreign central bank to buy back its currency on a specified future date at the same exchange rate. The second transaction unwinds the first. At the conclusion of the second transaction, the foreign central bank pays interest, at a market-based rate, to the Federal Reserve. Dollar liquidity swaps have maturities ranging from overnight to three months.

When the foreign central bank loans the dollars it obtains by drawing on its swap line to institutions in its jurisdiction, the dollars are transferred from the foreign central bank's account at the Federal Reserve to the account of the bank that the borrowing institution uses to clear its dollar transactions. The foreign central bank remains obligated to return the dollars to the Federal Reserve under the terms of the agreement, and the Federal Reserve is not a counterparty to the loan extended by the foreign central bank. The foreign central bank bears the credit risk associated with the loans it makes to institutions in its jurisdiction.

The foreign currency that the Federal Reserve acquires is an asset on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Because the swap is unwound at the same exchange rate that is used in the initial draw, the dollar value of the asset is not affected by changes in the market exchange rate. The dollar funds deposited in the accounts that foreign central banks maintains at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are a Federal Reserve liability.

Foreign-

 

[Dr.No.]

Liquidity swaps: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_liquidityswaps.htm

That is a good explanation, but technically, the Federal Reserve is not obligated to engage in that second transaction. As a course of business, when they are providing daily liquidity, they will do this, but I believe that over the financial crises, they made open-ended swaps (which they eventually closed later).

 

[devil21]

I would ask that you answer my posts first.

Why would I do that when you refuse to agree to even the most basic premise of the financial/economic system? Without that agreement, nothing else makes any difference since the rest sprouts from that basic premise.

 

[Dr.No.]

Why would I do that when you refuse to agree to even the most basic premise of the financial/economic system? Without that agreement, nothing else makes any difference since the rest sprouts from that basic premise.

If you believe the US is bankrupt (since, presumably, it is on the gold standard), then of course you'd be willing to transfer all your FRNs to me? After all, they are liabilities of a bankrupt government; they are worthless, according to you!