Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul compared

[Keith and stuff]

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul in 2012 compared

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul in the Republican Primary or Republican Caucus, ranked highest to lowest (and the 2008 percentage):
1. New Hampshire 4.3% (1.4%)
2. Vermont 2.4% (0.4%)
3. Montana 2% (1.7%)
4. South Carolina 1.7% (0.4%)
5. Wisconsin 1.5% (0.3%)
6. Indiana 1.5% (0.5%)
7. Virginia 1.3% (0.3%)
8. Michigan 1.2% (0.6%)
9. North Carolina 1.1% (0.4%)
10. Ohio 1% (0.5%)
11. Nebraska 1% (1%)
12. Oregon 0.9% (1.3%)
13. Iowa 0.9% (0.4%)
14. Pennsylvania 0.8% (1%)
15. South Dakota 0.8% (1.2%)
16. Tennessee 0.8% (0.5%)
17. Oklahoma 0.7% (0.3%)
18. Arkansas 0.7% (0.4%)
19. Texas 0.7% (0.3%)
20. Illinois 0.7% (0.4%)
21. West Virgina 0.7% (0.3%)
22. Alabama 0.6% (0.3%)
23. Florida 0.6% (0.3%)
24. Georgia 0.6% (0.3%)
25. Arizona 0.6% (0.4%)
26. Massachusetts 0.5% (0.2%)
27. Kentucky 0.5% (0.3%)
28. Idaho 0.5% (1.9%)
29. Missouri 0.5% (0.4%)
30. New Mexico 0.5% (0.8%)
31. North Dakota 0.4% (0.3%)
32. Alaska 0.4% (0.3%)
33. Mississippi 0.4% (0.2%)
34. California 0.4% (0.3%)
35. Maryland 0.4% (0.3%)
36. Utah 0.4% (0.3%)
37. Delaware 0.3% (0.2%)
38. Rhode Island 0.3% (0.2%)
39. New Jersey 0.3% (0.3%)
40. Minnesota 0.2% (0.2%)
41. Louisiana 0.2% (0.2%)
42. Nevada 0.2% (0.2%)
43. Connecticut 0.2% (0.2%)
44. Washington 0.2% (0.6%)
45. Colorado 0.2% (0.1%)
46. Maine 0.2% (0.08%)
47. Hawaii 0.1% (No popular vote)
48. New York 0.1% (0.2%)
49. Kansas 0.1% (0.08%)
United States Virgin Islands 0.1% (0.01%)
50. Wyoming 0.1% (No popular vote)
Washington D.C. 0.09% (0.08%)
Northern Mariana Islands 0.05% (0.01%)
Puerto Rico 0.04% (0.0002%)

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul in the Republican Primary or Republican Caucus, listed in chronological order:
Iowa 1/3/12 0.9% (.8620)
New Hampshire 1/10/12 4.3%
South Carolina 1/21/12 1.7%
Florida 1/21/12 0.6%
Nevada 2/4/12 0.2% (.2267)
Missouri 2/7/12 0.5% (.5097)
Minnesota 2/7/12 0.2% (.2474)
Colorado 2/7/12 0.2% (.1516)
Maine 2/11/12 0.2% (.17)
Michigan 2/28/12 1.2%
Arizona 2/28/12 0.6%
Wyoming 2/29/12 0.08%
Washington 3/3/12 0.2% (.1852)
Vermont 3/6/12 2.4%
Virginia 3/6/12 1.3%
Ohio 3/6/12 1%
Tennessee 3/6/12 0.8% (.7777)
Oklahoma 3/6/12 0.7% (.7272)
Georgia 3/6/12 0.6% (.6007)
Massachusetts 3/6/12 0.5% (.5318)
Idaho 3/6/12 0.5% (.5101)
Alaska 3/6/12 0.4% (.4393)
North Dakota 3/6/12 0.4% (.4295)
Kansas 3/10/12 0.1% (.1311)
United States Virgin Islands 3/10/12 0.1% (.1020)
Northern Mariana Islands 3/10/12 0.05%
Alabama 3/13/12 0.6% (.6381)
Mississippi 3/13/12 0.4% (.4196)
Hawaii 3/13/12 0.1% (.1436)
Puerto Rico 3/18/12 0.04%
Illinois 3/20/12 0.7% (.6682)
Louisiana 3/24/12 0.2% (.2497)
Wisconsin 4/3/12 1.5% (1.538)
Maryland 4/3/12 0.4% (.3860)
Washington D.C. 4/3/12 0.09% (.0865)
Pennsylvania 4/24/12 0.8% (.8302)
Delaware 4/24/12 0.3% (.3325)
Rhode Island 4/24/12 0.3% (.3293)
Connecticut 4/24/12 0.2% (.2238)
New York 4/24/12 0.1% (.1341)
Indiana 5/8/12 1.5% (1.528)
North Carolina 5/8/12 1.1% (1.109)
West Virgina 5/8/12 0.7% (.6609)
Nebraska 5/15/12 1.0% (.9876)
Oregon 5/15/12 0.9% (.9323)
Arkansas 5/22/12 0.7% (.6898)
Kentucky 5/22/12 0.5% (.5045)
Texas 5/29/12 0.7% (.6730)
Montana 6/5/12 2% (2.002)
South Dakota 6/5/12 0.8% (.8135)
New Mexico 6/5/12 0.5% (.4559)
California 6/5/12 0.4% (.3923)
New Jersey 6/5/12 0.3% (.2720)
Utah 6/26/12 0.4% (.3685)

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul, listed by how easy it is to vote in state primary:
Everyone Allowed to Vote
Vermont 2.4%
Montana 2%
South Carolina 1.7%
Wisconsin 1.5%
Indiana 1.5%
Virginia 1.3%
Michigan 1.2%
Ohio 1%
Tennessee 0.8%
Arkansas 0.7%
Texas 0.7%
Illinois 0.7%
Alabama 0.6%
Georgia 0.6%
Missouri 0.5%
Mississippi 0.4%
Puerto Rico 0.04%

GOP and Undeclared or Unenrolled (Independents) Allowed to Vote
New Hampshire 4.3%
North Carolina 1.1%
West Virgina 0.7%
Massachusetts 0.5%
Rhode Island 0.3%

GOP Allowed to Vote
Nebraska 1%
Oregon 0.9%
Pennsylvania 0.8%
South Dakota 0.8%
Oklahoma 0.7%
Florida GOP 0.6%
Arizona 0.6%
Kentucky 0.5%
New Mexico 0.5%
California 0.4%
Maryland 0.4%
Utah 0.4%
Delaware 0.3%
New Jersey 0.3%
Louisiana 0.2%
Connecticut 0.2%
New York 0.1%
Washington D.C. 0.09%

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul, listed by how easy it is to vote in state caucus:
Everyone Allowed to Vote
North Dakota 0.4%
Minnesota 0.2%
Washington 0.2%

GOP and Undeclared or Unenrolled (Independents) Allowed to Vote
Maine 0.2%
Hawaii 0.1%

GOP Allowed to Vote
Iowa 0.9%
Idaho 0.5%
Alaska 0.4%
Nevada 0.2%
Colorado 0.2%
Kansas 0.1%
United States Virgin Islands 0.1%
Wyoming 0.1%
Northern Mariana Islands 0.04%

Google chart link http://chart.apis.google.com/chart?...,45,70,70,70,100,45,25,100,45,70,100&chtm=usa

Percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul in the Republican Primary or Republican Caucus, ranked highest to lowest by color:
Red 5% to 3% (NH)
Orange 2.9% to 2% (VT MT)
Yellow 1.9% to 1% (SC WI IN VA MI NC OH NE)
Light Green 0.9% to 0.5% (OR IA PA SC TN OK AR TX IL WV AL FL GA AZ MA KY ID MO NM)
Green less than 0.5% (ND AK MS CA MD UT DE RI NJ MN LA NV CT WA CO ME HI NY KS WY)

Sources:
Type "population of XXX" into Google to see the population source used for the states. Results quickly pop up from http://www.google.com/publicdata -- Source: U.S. Census Bureau
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2012_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries for the vote results
See http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?315740-State-by-State-Voting-Information for information on about how easy it is to vote in a primary or caucus
See http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...competition)&p=4165019&viewfull=1#post4165019 for 2008 percentages

 

[Keith and stuff]

Michigan 2/28/12 1.2%

 

[tbone717]

Nice work. It may also be helpful to know the percentage of votes as it relates to the 2008 general election vote total.

 

[Keith and stuff]

Arizona 2/28/12 0.6%

 

[Keith and stuff]

Wyoming 2/29/12 0.08%

Wyoming didn't have a popular vote in 2008 so these numbers shouldn't be looked down on. This is progress.

 

[Keith and stuff]

Ron Paul won Detroit, MI. Here is a look at Detroit, just for fun.

Detroit voting results:
Paul 5,525
Santorum 4,047
Romney 1,338
Gingrich?
Obama 32,980 (in the Democratic Primary)

Estimated population of Detroit:
713777

Percentage of the population that voted for Ron Paul in Detroit:
0.8%

Percentage of the population that voted for Obama in Detroit:
4.6%

Interestingly enough, if you combined the percentage of the population that voted for Ron Paul in the NH GOP Primary (4.3%) and the NH Democratic Primary (0.2%), it is still lower than Obama did in Detroit. Obama is very popular in Detroit.

If you look at MI as a whole, 1.8% of the population voted for Obama.

Percentage of total state or city population voting for:
4.6% Obama in Detroit (Obama came in 1st)
4.5% Paul in NH (Paul came in 2nd in both the GOP and Democratic Primaries)
4.2% Romney in MI (Romney came in 1st)
1.8% Obama in MI (Obama came in 1st)
1.7% Paul in SC (Paul came in 4th)
1.2% Paul in MI (Paul came in 3rd)
1.0% Paul in OH (Paul came in 4th)
0.8% Paul in Detroit (Paul came in 1st)
0.2% Romney in Detroit (Romney came in 3rd)

 

[Keith and stuff]

Washington 3/3/12 0.2%

 

[Keith and stuff]

Virginia 3/6/12 1.3%

Keep in mind that only 2 candidates were on the ballot in VA, the Republican Primary was open and there was not a Democratic Primary. VA was the only state in the US with only two choices. Because of these factors, all other things being equal, VA should have been Ron Paul's best Primary state and perhaps his best state.

 

[Keith and stuff]

North Dakota 3/6/12 0.4%

 

[Keith and stuff]

Tennessee 3/6/12 0.8%
Oklahoma 3/6/12 0.7%

 

[Keith and stuff]

Idaho 3/6/12 0.5%

 

[unknown]

Whats the point of this thread?

 

[Keith and stuff]

Ohio 3/6/12 1%
Georgia 3/6/12 0.6%
Massachusetts 3/6/12 0.5%
Alaska 3/6/12 0.4%

 

[Keith and stuff]

Whats the point of this thread?

I find the numbers extraordinarily interesting

The point is to compare the percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul in various states. If the number is relatively high in a state, perhaps a relatively larger percentage of the population in that state is aware and in agreement with Paul's message. If the number is relatively low in a state, perhaps a relatively smaller percentage of the population in that state is aware and in agreement with Paul's message. I listed it by date to show how the number changes over time. I broke it down by primary and caucus states. I further broke it down by which type of people are able to vote in each state.

I'll do a comparison example.

Everyone Allowed to Vote
Washington 0.2%
GOP Allowed to Vote
Alaska 0.4%

Every voter was allowed to vote for Paul in Washington. Only Republican voters were allowed to vote for Paul in Alaska. However, twice the percentage of the population vote for Paul in Alaska, even though only Republicans were able to vote for him. Keep in mind that the Paul campaign focused much more on WA than AK. Perhaps, a higher percentage of people are awake to Paul's message in AK. At the very least, a higher percentage of people, from a much smaller poll of voters (only Republicans) voted for Paul in AK.

 

[Lisa100]

Interesting. I did not realize the percentage of total population voting for Ron was so small.
This is actually sad.
It is hard to find any patterns, because there are so many different factors in each state, besides the ones you listed, like % religious or amount spent on ads, etc.
But thanks for posting this!

 

[Keith and stuff]

Vermont 3/6/12 2.4%

Vermont is the state with the 2nd highest percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul. Typically, the turnout is higher in the earlier states. That is true this year for most states. For example, SC has the 3rd highest turnout for Paul and IA has the highest turnout for Paul among the caucus states. However, the Republican Primary turnout was very high in Vermont, compared to 2008. Much of that turnout is 2008 Democratic Primary voters switching to the Republican Primary this time. In fact, exit polls show that only 49% of the Vermont Republican Primary voters were Republicans.

 

[unknown]

Interesting. I did not realize the percentage of total population voting for Ron was so small.
This is actually sad.

Its actually not sad. It is however irrelevant.

Just take ND for example. The state population is around 680,000 and only about 10,000 total votes were cast in the primary.

So?

Let me save the OP some time. Its ALWAYS going to be a tiny %.

I also want my 30 seconds back.

 

[Keith and stuff]

Let me save the OP some time. Its ALWAYS going to be a tiny %.

I also want my 30 seconds back.

I'm sorry that you don't enjoy statistics or comparing states. I'm sorry that you don't enjoy learning how well Ron Paul's message has reached the people of the various states.

I didn't do this to make Ron Paul look bad. I did it to compare the states and show how well Ron Paul is doing. To that, I'm not just doing Ron Paul. I also did Obama and Romney, for example. Additionally, I included explanations and examples from time to time.

 

[unknown]

I'm sorry that you don't enjoy statistics or comparing states. I'm sorry that you don't enjoy learning how well Ron Paul's message has reached the people of the various states.

I didn't do this to make Ron Paul look bad. I did it to compare the states and show how well Ron Paul is doing. To that, I'm not just doing Ron Paul. I also did Obama and Romney, for example. Additionally, I included explanations and examples from time to time.

Ok but wouldnt it be more relevant to do it as a % of total votes cast which would be the actual voting results...

Your analysis, IMO, seems to miss some obvious factors (unless you've covered it previously). For example, how many people in the state are eligible to vote? Then one would ask of those people, how many are actually registered? That leads to how many of those registered people are able to vote based on open/closed primary rules etc.

The number of votes cast in a primary/caucus are TINY compared to the state's entire population. Just look at ND, 683,000 people in the state and 10,000 voted in the primary...

 

[LittleLightShining]

Vermont 3/6/12 2.4%
Vermont is the state with the 2nd highest percentage of total state population voting for Ron Paul. Typically, the turnout is higher in the earlier state. That is true this year for most states. For example, SC has the 3rd highest turnout for Paul and IA has the highest turnout for Paul among the caucus states. However, the Republican Primary turnout was very high in Vermont, compared to 2008. Much of that turnout is 2008 Democratic Primary voters switching to the Republican Primary this time.

That's probably true but the Democrats made a concerted effort (egged on by DailyKOS) to vote for Rick Santorum.

Forty-one percent GOP primary voters in the state described themselves as Independents, vastly higher than the 23 percent of independents voting in the state’s open primary in 2008. And this year 40 percent of those independent voters supported Ron Paul, versus 28 percent for next-state neighbor Romney.

^^^This is one of the best analysis I've seen on VT yet. Read the whole thing.


And also, the crossover vote was some protest vote from folks wanting to send an anti-war message, but we have strong and real support from former Obama voters.