Peak Oil

Peak oil.. of course it is not going to run out over night, but its going to get more and more expensive to get at the stuff thats left. It probably does not make business sense to extract oil form the Canadian sand pits, from the deep sea reserve off the coast of Brazil, or the reserves found in Antarctica. It probably makes more business sense to just grow fuel from plants like sugar, to insulate your house, to change your car to an electric one, to use more public transport, to expand nuclear energy, to produce more stuff domestically etc. Sure there is always going to be fossil fuels around, but there is not always going to be cheap fossil fuels around. I think cheap oil, is a thing of the past. It will not be the end of the world though, there is plenty of alternatives at 150 a barrel.

Cheers
 
This was interesting... I think I found this URL here on RPF in another thread.

Lindsey Williams - recorded 10-2007 - prediction of planned $4 gal gas price, Oil/$/War
Economic Hit man stuff. The presentation is slow (75min) but it is very thorough...

http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...147&pr=goog-sl

It ties a lot together: taxes, oil (locations, reserve, OPEC, profits), world bank, war for USD-Oil link, and it may have also addressed fiat inflation, etc.
 
If the end of that Lindsey Williams video don't at least near bring a tear to you're eyes, I reckon you are already dead.

Don't much matter whether anyone believes in the Illuminati.
I personally do believe they are real.
And what matters most is what they believe.
 
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Perhaps social "systems" gravitate towards an equilibrium.
Perhaps social "systems" are often "driven" towards an equilibrium. :)

Accidental history or conspiratorial history?

"In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way." -- Franklin D. Roosevelt
 
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What's Ron Paul's position on this?

he thinks it's completely bogus, but he said if it were real, the markets would take care of it, as oil would become more and more expensive, and the result would be that people would move towards another fuel.

Of course nearly all of the price increase in oil, as of now, is due to inflation/devaluation of the dollar and not supply+demand issues.
 
What's Ron Paul's position on this?

he thinks it's completely bogus, but he said if it were real, the markets would take care of it, as oil would become more and more expensive, and the result would be that people would move towards another fuel.

I found this quote by Ron Paul on the issue:

I don't worry about peak oil as much as I do about geopolitics and inflation. If we had sound money, and if we were not provoking wars and oil supplies, and if peak oil all of a sudden not only arrived but the supply was decreasing much faster than we ever dreamed of, I wouldn't even worry about it, because I have such confidence that the price mechanism in the free market helps us decide what to do. If we had a truly free market and gasoline prices go to $5 per gallon, all of a sudden ethanol may be the answer. The last thing we want is the government to be doing this. If we let the markets handle this , we should never worry. We don't need to worry so much about a limited supply as much as how we mess things up after that with inflation and regulation and radical environmentalism and geopolitical intervention. That is where the real problems are.

That doesn't sound to me like he thinks the theory of Peak Oil is "completely bogus", only that if we had a truly free market (which we don't) it would make irreversible decline in oil production-- if that is indeed what is happening/about to happen-- no big deal. He doesn't seem to be weighing in on whether or not Peak Oil is "real" either way, let alone to an extreme as you imply.

If you have any other quotes by him on Peak Oil I'd be curious to read them.
 
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Peak oil.. of course it is not going to run out over night, but its going to get more and more expensive to get at the stuff thats left. It probably does not make business sense to extract oil form the Canadian sand pits, from the deep sea reserve off the coast of Brazil, or the reserves found in Antarctica. It probably makes more business sense to just grow fuel from plants like sugar, to insulate your house, to change your car to an electric one, to use more public transport, to expand nuclear energy, to produce more stuff domestically etc. Sure there is always going to be fossil fuels around, but there is not always going to be cheap fossil fuels around. I think cheap oil, is a thing of the past. It will not be the end of the world though, there is plenty of alternatives at 150 a barrel.

Cheers


Haha I actually agree with you. I'm watching Out of Gas right now on CNN. V ery informative. ALL oil wells peak at some point. So peak oil to some extent is scientific fact. There is PLENTY of untapped oil in the world but like you said it's extremely expensive and inefficient right now to get it out of the ground. North America has billions and billions of barrels worth in tars and rocks etc. But if you've ever seen how destructive it is getting this oil to the environment, it's no different than mining other things. Million tons of earth being moved daily? And thee environmentalists are just whackos? LOL. Our great great grandchildren will thank the environmentalists when we realize how fucking stupid we have been relying on fossil fuels and oil.
 
Corn ethanol is completely backfiring. I guess the reason we can't rely on sugar cane ethanol is due to climate? Another thing that pisses me off is the lack of availability of diesel engines in cars and trucks in America. I'd buy a diesel any day over a gas engine even though diesel is a little more expensive.
 
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I don't believe in peak oil. But I do believe that even if oil is abiotic and replenished like trees in a forest at the rate we are going we'll end up running short of it. Look at what human beings have done to the rain forests. Look at how over fished our oceans are. This has nothing to do with "greenies" or socialist this or socialist that. It's scientific fact. The polar ice caps are melting for whatever reason you want to attribute it to....man made or not. The world is becoming more and more polluted. I mean fuck just study how denatured soil is nowadays due to monoculture farming practices. But don't worry Monsanto, technology, and private industry will come save the day. LOL.

When they were drilling in Alaska in the 70's the found tropical growth and a type of bull frog that normally would be found in Louisiana. The book I reference, "The Energy Non-Crisis" by Lindsey Williams, also speaks of tropical growth in Antarctica.

See my post further down for the Lindsey Williams book.
 
The truth is being suppressed and has been for years. The fact that our government owns 90% of Alaska should tell us something.

I did not believe the 70's energy crisis and I do not believe the current crisis. The more I read, the more convinced I am that it is a lie, and a war against Americans.

We are surrounded by traitors in our government.They want to nationalize oil/energy.

Please read all you can about it. Look up Sen. Hugh Chance of Colorado also.
 
So what if there is plenty of oil in Alaska. That doens't mean we should drill it. Alaska is the last wild place in all of the world. I say keep it that way. You don't give a crack addict more crack. He has to go through detox and get clean. Well, America has to detox itself off of oil altogether. We have to "get clean". Drilling in Alaska is a short term fix to a long term problem.

Oh also I suggest William Engdahl's A Century of War..........it covers a lot of the same themes as The Energy Non Crisis but is vastly superior in scope and content. The Prize by Daniel Yergin is a good read as well.
 
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I'm always a bit dismayed by the anti-intellectual, specifically anti-scientific, attitude of many conservatives. So many people seem to be willing to believe in conspiracy theories rather than learn basic facts about the world. You see this, in this issue, in people believing in Lindsey Williams. And that's exactly what it is: belief. Belief is when you have no proof of something but still having confidence in it. He's never actually presented facts about an "energy non-crisis". He simply says it's so and people believe it. Really ridiculous.

I'd read his book a few years ago, after coming across peak oil. As a student of science, whenever you come to have confidence in a subject, it's best to read as much as possible, no matter how crazy or asinine, from the "other side". So I did. I read about abiotic oil, Lindsey Williams, all of the other crap. And I concluded that it was crap based off of the facts presented. In Williams' case, it's easy: he presents no facts. It's always: "a man told me blah blah blah". He never names anyone, never provides facts for what he says, etc.

I mean, read what he writes:

All the time I was trying my best to find out what it was in specifics, because after all, I did not know all those terms he was using. I was a layman, and as a layman and a Chaplain, I didn't understand some of the data they were discussing, so I cannot present it here.

He can't present it? Probably because it doesn't exist. You get the feeling, while reading the book, that it's just a novel and not an investigative book about the potential for oil reserves in the US. He claims that he had "executive status" because he was a CHAPLAIN! And that's how he came across this information? If you owned a company that produced a couple of millions of barrels of oil every day (and thus millions in profits everyday), would you be handing out executive status to a ******* chaplain? To someone who, according to his own words, doesn't understand what he's hearing?

It's absurd that so many people are willing to believe this garbage rather than pick up a geology book to learn about how oil is extracted and how production models are. Or dig through the facts to show that even with the 4 mpd of production that Lindsey claims we have in Gull Island, that we'd still need to import 8 million barrels per day. And that that number would increase as US domestic production would decrease and consumption would increase.

North America has billions and billions of barrels worth in tars and rocks etc. But if you've ever seen how destructive it is getting this oil to the environment, it's no different than mining other things.

Oil shale isn't very destructive. At least with in-situ extraction methods. What you do, is put pipes around the rocks which they cook the rocks for a few years. That releases the oil and then you can pump it out. However, it takes a large nuclear power plant (1000 MW) to produce half a million barrels a day, IIRC. The main problem is the extremely high cost of production as well as a low EROEI (energy return on energy investment). But for a system based on liquid fuels where electricity currently can't run much of the US fleet, it's a possibility.

Interesting side note, tar sands and oil shale have the energy density (roughly) of a potato. That's just to show how horrible of an energy source it is. "Normal" petroleum has an energy density hundreds of times greater, I believe. (31,000 calories per gallon in gasoline).
 
Thanks for the thorough post, mekrob. Welcome (back) to the forum!

LiveFree79 said:
So what if there is plenty of oil in Alaska. That doens't mean we should drill it. Alaska is the last wild place in all of the world. I say keep it that way. You don't give a crack addict more crack. He has to go through detox and get clean. Well, America has to detox itself off of oil altogether. We have to "get clean". Drilling in Alaska is a short term fix to a long term problem.

Well put.
 
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http://www.petroleumnews.com/pntruncate/359622793.shtml

Peak production from Kuparuk was 320,000 bpd. Ultimately recoverable oil is expected to be 2.6 bln barrels. However, Lindsey claimed that it was twice the size of Prudhoe Bay. But Prudhoe Bay is 25 bln barrels and had a peak production of 2.0 mpd in the late '80's. This is pretty clear that Kuparuk is far smaller than Prudhoe Bay. This shows a very clear lie or exaggeration by Lindsey. And he's still never offered one shred of evidence for Gull Island which he says is the largest in the world.

From Chapter 17 of his "book":

Prudhoe Bay can produce two (2) million barrels of oil every 24 hours for 20 to 40 years at artesian pressure

Really? 2 mpd for 20 to 40 years? Hmmm...

prudhoe_bay.gif


That's odd. Cuz Prudhoe Bay never even produced 2 million barrels per day for a SINGLE day. So he's wrong on two accounts. Now why should we trust him for the third count: the claim about Gull Island?

I understand why people are so distrustful of the government. But whenever you believe anything, read what the other side has to offer as well. Do a little bit of homework. Don't just believe every word that someone, who's distrustful of the government, says.

I'll give Williams credit. He wrote a great novel. I mean, look at how many people actually believe what he's saying! It reminds me a lot of the War of the Worlds scare many years ago. But people: it's just a novel.
 
I'll give Williams credit. He wrote a great novel. I mean, look at how many people actually believe what he's saying! It reminds me a lot of the War of the Worlds scare many years ago. But people: it's just a novel.

Except that if anything, Williams wouldn't be scaring anyone; he would be lulling them into a false sense of security.
 
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