Just some facts to consider. One. Oil is being consumed globally at a rate much faster than new sources are being found and brought on line. Two, One by one, oil exporting countries are becoming net importers. The US used to be the biggest exporter in the world, now we are the biggest importer. Brazil has made some large finds, but even with those, they are consuming the same amount as they produce- and their demand is expected to increase in the future. Britain, Denmark, Indonesia all used to be big exporters and are now net importers. Iran, Mexico, and perhaps Venezuela are getting close to becoming net importers- could happen in the next decade.
The major portion of oil reserves available for export come from the Middle East (actually the largest source for the US is Canada) but can we trust their numbers? They likely have much less oil than they claim they do. None of the countries there allow any auditing of their industry. Back around 1980, OPEC changed the way they determine production quotas- the bigger your reserves, the more you were allowed to export. This led to a bidding war and a massive increase in reported reserves- without any major new finds of oil fields being made. Between 1980 and 1990, the following INCREASES in reported reserves occured:
Iran went from 58 billion barrels to 93 (they have since upped it to 130 billion). They are nearly a net importer(they do have to import gasoline- they lack their own refining capabilities to produce enough)- they want to develop nuclear power for domestic consumption to free up more oil for export and revenue.
Iraq went from 30 to 100
Kuwait 67 to 96
Saudi Arabia from 168 to 261
United Arab Emerates (Quatar) 30 to 98
Venezuela 19.5 to 60 (and now at 99)
Lybia and Nigeria did not make significant revisions in their "reported reserves" though they are members of OPEC.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_reserves
We won't one day wake up to not a single drop of oil in the world. There is still a ton of oil out there- it is just that getting to it and extracting it is getting more and more difficult and expensive. The oil shale fields in the Rocky Mountain region features oil locked up in rocks- not in big pools. You have to dig out the rocks, smash and heat them to get the oil out. Current technology estimates that it would take the equivelent of one barrel of oil to get out two barrels of actual oil to use. It also requires a lot of water (a scarce resource in the region) and produces a lot of wastes and toxins. Saudi Arabia recently opened a new field but it requires two gallons of sea water to be piped in and pumped underground to get out one barrel of oil. If they had easier ways to get oil out of the ground, they would be doing it.
Peak oil says that production will hit the point where it cannot keep up with demand. It will mean much, much higher prices for it due to the higher costs of finding and getting oil out of the ground. That day may be close if we are not already there. Production of the two currently largest producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, are peaking. Russia peaked a couple years ago. They cannot sustain the pace of extraction they are currently producing. That is why they are also moving into production of natural gas which they do still have a lot of.
