Paul only candidate to poll 2X% in every Iowa poll (Mitt>Huck in 2/5 final polls in 08)

[da32130]

Huckabee was behind Romney in 2 of the last 5 polls before the Iowa caucus. Huck's average lead was 3.0 and he won by 9.2.

Ron Paul is currently ahead in 3 of the last 4. His average lead is 3.5.

The latest Rasmussen poll actually increased our relative position, because Newt dropped.

current Iowa polling:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...owa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

2008 Iowa polling:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

 

[MomsBasement]

So you're saying Romney is gonna win by ~9?

 

[AlexAmore]

I guess the difference here to be seen is do the young people come out to vote vs the old people (Huckabee). I think they will. They did it for Obama, apparently.

This girl (age 25) cleans my place once a month and she is not political at all but she said a guy friend w/ his girlfriend were going to see Ron Paul in Exeter, NH last night.
Pretty cool!

 

[da32130]

So you're saying Romney is gonna win by ~9?

Right, negative 9.

But seriously, I clarified it.

 

[Indiana4Paul]

Have to really push hard these last few weeks.

We need to win Iowa obviously, and even as that looks increasingly likely, the reality is the bigger the margin we get in Iowa the bigger the bounce is going to be heading into NH and beyond.

 

[da32130]

Have to really push hard these last few weeks.

We need to win Iowa obviously, and even as that looks increasingly likely, the reality is the bigger the margin we get in Iowa the bigger the bounce is going to be heading into NH and beyond.

Right.

 

[1836]

Huckabee was behind Romney in 2 of the last 5 polls before the Iowa caucus. Huck's average lead was 3.0 and he won by 9.2.

Ron Paul is currently ahead in 3 of the last 4. His average lead is 3.5.

The latest Rasmussen poll actually increased our relative position, because Newt dropped.

current Iowa polling:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...owa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html

2008 Iowa polling:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/ia/iowa_republican_caucus-207.html

This is a really good point. The final numbers are going to reflect the last minute movement that characterizes many voters' decision making. Our organization will be able to turn out a large number of voters and therefore, we have a strong advantage if we can maintain a lead in the 3-5% range.

 

[FA.Hayek]

Have to really push hard these last few weeks.

We need to win Iowa obviously, and even as that looks increasingly likely, the reality is the bigger the margin we get in Iowa the bigger the bounce is going to be heading into NH and beyond.

this