Paul is rising on Intrade :)

[kathy88]

3.6% chance of being the nominee...
2.7 to become President

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?searchQuery=ron+paul

yeah yeah I know... it's Intrade but it's still fun

 

[sailingaway]

It's PUNY.

But it is still fun.

They have the odds wrong though. If he wins the nomination, I honestly believe wins the general.

 

[dude58677]

What matters most is the GOP conventions.

 

[kathy88]

What matters most is the GOP conventions.

Really? Huh.

 

[kathy88]

Some of those numbers are very interesting. They have the odds of him winning any primary/caucus (excluding Maine) is at 6%. You non-Americans ought to get a piece of that action NOW. Also, 22% for winning Utah. 17.5% for Montana. 10% for NJ. Weird.

 

[Lightweis]

What percent is the tipping scale on intrade?!

 

[kathy88]

What percent is the tipping scale on intrade?!

HA! Good question.

 

[matt0611]

It's PUNY.

But it is still fun.

They have the odds wrong though. If he wins the nomination, I honestly believe wins the general.

I believe the "general" is totally independent of him winning the repub nomination.

 

[Aratus]

there is a hearty ROMNEY betting bias as a pattern onsite
that is coming from an intrepid group of Obama partisans

 

[skyorbit]

Well since winning the presidency is conditional on him winning the nominatinon, it means that IF he wins the nomination, he's got an excellent change of beating BO.

It's been a long time since my anaylitical stats, but you can ad and subtract probabilities.

3.6% chance of being the nominee...
2.7 to become President. Obviously being president would be less odds then wining the nomanie because being the nominee is a condition to become president.

On the Condition of him Winning the nomination, the odds of becoming president skyrocket.

I'd half to look it up, But there is a way to figure out the odds of winning the presidency on the condition of winning the nomination.

TRacy

 

[rp08orbust]

Well since winning the presidency is conditional on him winning the nominatinon, it means that IF he wins the nomination, he's got an excellent change of beating BO.

It's been a long time since my anaylitical stats, but you can ad and subtract probabilities.

3.6% chance of being the nominee...
2.7 to become President. Obviously being president would be less odds then wining the nomanie because being the nominee is a condition to become president.

On the Condition of him Winning the nomination, the odds of becoming president skyrocket.

I'd half to look it up, But there is a way to figure out the odds of winning the presidency on the condition of winning the nomination.

TRacy

Since being president is (almost) entirely a subset of winning the nomination, you just divide: 2.7/3.6 = 75%.

 

[patriot2008]

WITH RECENT PAUL WINS WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THIS IF ANYTHING?

Chances of a brokered convention.
https://data.intrade.com/graphing/j...actId=756901&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

Even without the others in anymore, rising back up in April. Hmmm.
up 22% today.

 

[juvanya]

Bet a few dollars on it if you can (you need a foreign account or send a check that takes 2-3 weeks to clear). We might be on track to do it.

 

[phil4truth]

It's PUNY.

But it is still fun.

They have the odds wrong though. If he wins the nomination, I honestly believe wins the general.

^^THIS^^

I've said this all along that Romney v Obama = 4 more years for Obama. Only Dr Paul can beat Obama!

 

[JustinL]

They have the odds wrong though. If he wins the nomination, I honestly believe wins the general.

For people who think that, with those odds, no reason to bet on nomination when the presidency has higher payout due to lower odds (If I'm guessing right that that is how it works). Of course if you're a Ron Paul supporter you don't make such bets on that site as you'd spend the money helping to get him elected instead!