Paul in double digits in new Iowa Poll: 10%, more than doubles

[ChristopherBearkat]

It's a rather small survey, only 600 people and a margin of error of four points. Most media polls like to get it within three points.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican caucus goers living in Iowa (527 Republicans and 73 no party (independent) voters).

Sample Dates: December 20-23, 2007

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Here's what should worry us:

# 27% of likely caucus participants are undecided (8%) or say they could switch candidates between now and January 3 (19%).
# 75% of those saying they support Romney say their support is definite.
# 83% of those saying they support McCain say their support is definite.
# 85% of those saying they support Giuliani say their support is definite.
# 88% of those saying they support Huckabee say their support is definite.

Now granted, I don't really know how 'committed' people feel. They may just answer that way because of how the poll is set up. However, the really interesting numbers are these:

Giuliani 16% 3%
Huckabee 23% 21%
Hunter 2% -
Keyes 2% -
McCain 15% 31%
Paul 8% 26
Romney 23% 9

Among independents (which make up most of the electorate, but only 18% of this poll) McCain trumps every one with 31% of the vote followed by Ron Paul with 26% of independent voters then followed by Huckabee with 23%

Question: I thought independent voters made the bulk of the caucuses? Am I wrong?

If this poll is close to accurate, then this may mean McCain is far from sunk. One could surmise that if turnout is high among independent voters McCain could finish very close to the top.

It appears that Rudy is gonna get creamed. (3% of independent voters is a pretty bad sign) McCain did stun everyone in 2000 when he beat Bush in Iowa. I wouldn't be the least surprised if he came out strong here.

Romney is tied with Huckabee with just republicans, but he doesn't have very much independent support. Bad news for Mitt if party loyalists stay home (which is a possibility). Looking at the poll, his supporters are less committed than Hucks troops.

Looking at Dr. Paul's numbers he's running 2ND with independents with Huckabee close behind (well within the margin of error) And we all know that our troops are MUCH MUCH more motivated than any other GOP candidate. (Can we say Blimp?) It also confirms what we already know, that Dr. Paul attracts independents. (which are under-represented in polls)

It's all going to depend on turnout. If rank and file Republicans decide to stay home (if it's weather or disgust with the party) then independent votes matter more which is very good news for McCain and Dr. Paul. (Pray for snow)

Bottom Line: Game's not over yet, but we're down and it's 4th Quarter

 

[ChristopherBearkat]

Whoa! Fred Thompson is only polling at 3%....JUST ONE AHEAD OF ALAN KEYES!?

 

[ronpaulyourmom]

Among independents (which make up most of the electorate, but only 18% of this poll) McCain trumps every one with 31% of the vote followed by Ron Paul with 26% of independent voters then followed by Huckabee with 23%

Question: I thought independent voters made the bulk of the caucuses? Am I wrong?

My guess is that this is not true for the Caucus, but rather the general election. The percentage that they came up with, which I think was 12% not 18% but I could be wrong, is likely in line with the methodology I posted earlier whereby they ask the person to self-identify and weed the person out according to their standards. In other words, most independents said "maybe" or "probably not" and got dropped from the sample. The key thing about the independents in this case is that ARG asks the person who self-identifies as Independent which primary they intend to vote in, and then asks "Are you definitely going to vote in that primary, maybe, or probably not?". See when you ask an independent this question, they may be trying to decide between Ron Paul or a democratic candidate like Obama. In this case they may say "probably", at which point they get dropped from the sample. In other words Independents might be under-represented here, especially Paul's ones, but not because of a blanket assumption by ARG but rather a flaw in their questioning methodology.

If this poll is close to accurate, then this may mean McCain is far from sunk. One could surmise that if turnout is high among independent voters McCain could finish very close to the top.

See above, probably not as bad as you think because Ron Paul is probably unique to the example. This does however prove that McCain and Ron Paul are the two most viable general election candidates in the race.

 

[kcroyalscott]

Infomercial?

This poll was conducted from the 20th to the 23rd and I am pretty sure the Iowa infomercial aired on the 23rd. Does anyone think that could have been fresh in peoples' minds? I don't really think it could have pushed us up to 10% in only 1 day out of 4 days polling but it's just a thought that I haven't seen mentioned in a previous post. Either way it's a good thing to see, we should never be complaining about a poll that has Ron Paul beside 2 numbers AND a % sign.

 

[jlink7]

I think Huckabee is just another Bill Clinton, even makes Romney look fake.

So you're saying that Romney is sincere? (I think you probably meant "even makes Romney look sincere."

 

[ronpaulyourmom]

This poll was conducted from the 20th to the 23rd and I am pretty sure the Iowa infomercial aired on the 23rd. Does anyone think that could have been fresh in peoples' minds? I don't really think it could have pushed us up to 10% in only 1 day out of 4 days polling but it's just a thought that I haven't seen mentioned in a previous post. Either way it's a good thing to see, we should never be complaining about a poll that has Ron Paul beside 2 numbers AND a % sign.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AmY-fW3gdc

This ad is currently on the airwaves in Iowa, it went up just recently. Maybe people like it.

 

[kcroyalscott]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AmY-fW3gdc

This ad is currently on the airwaves in Iowa, it went up just recently. Maybe people like it.

Could be. I like that one, seems 'presidential' to me..

 

[ChristopherBearkat]

My guess is that this is not true for the Caucus, but rather the general election. The percentage that they came up with, which I think was 12% not 18% but I could be wrong, is likely in line with the methodology I posted earlier whereby they ask the person to self-identify and weed the person out according to their standards.

I figured they were underrepresented in the sample, but I've never watched the caucus this close before so I wasn't sure how big the impact of independent voters were in the caucus.

 

[Luther]

Ron Paul will devour Huckabee's constituency alive. Even the dumbest Christians can tell the difference between some yahoo who waves the cross around and someone who really does have values.

 

[stewie3128]

The script

Here's a very possible scenario:

Huckabee and Romney within 5 points of each other, and Paul 10-15 points behind the two of them. That will give the MSM license to treat Paul's little surge in Iowa more like a footnote than an upset.

Remember, they have a script and a theory about the election, and they're going to mold the coverage to fit that however they can. Their script/theory is that Huckabee will be the upset candidate, and that Romney will do well, but Giuliani will be the big gorilla later on with all of the big-delegate states in his corner. They have no interest in Thompson any more, but they still respect McCain enough for playing nicely with them to give him any positive coverage he deserves. (Hunter is a non-issue, obv.)

Now, if RP takes first, or if he's in a top three that are all within a few points of each other, then Ron Paul will be news on the evening of January 3rd. Anything else, including being in a close group of four at the top, will warrant them to write him off once again. Even then, the spin discussion will be "apparently Ron Paul has managed tap into an Isolationist well here in Iowa" or some other gross mischaracterization.

Moral of the story here: it doesn't matter if Paul's third or even second, if he's a distant third or second. They want it to be Huckabee's night, and the only thing that will get them off that story is a poor performance by Huckabee (meaning bottom three) which doesn't look likely to happen right now.

 

[joenaab]

This is good news, especially considering what an earlier poster pointed out, that Ron Paul's turnout will approach 100% and turnout for the others will be nowhere near that amount(this will vary by candidate). Further, I expect these numbers are still not representative of the actual totals. I very much doubt, for example, than voters 18-22 are even represented at all, and that is a huge part of Dr. Paul's base. Same day registration, if this is true, will go a long way as well.

As for Huckabee on MTP, some of you are forgetting that it may be intended to make him shine. He's clearly in the club and since Hillary has already been anointed the next president, their only goal now is to make sure Ron Paul doesn't win the nomination. This is why they've been rotating through "frontrunners" to see which of them might have enough traction to beat the good doctor. It's clearly Huckabee's turn. After that, the contest is over (assuming no 3rd party effort) and Hillary is the next Prez. If need be, they'll run Bloomberg as a 3rd party candidate to ensure Hillary's win.

Also, remember, Iowa is the only state in the union that still votes and counts vote manually. In New Hampshire, 50% of the precincts vote and count votes manually. In the other 48 states, it is all electronic (either voting and/or counting, all very secretive). With Ron Paul supporters at every Iowa precinct we can at least ensure one accurate primary.

 

[kylejack]

I've been thinking this over, and could this be caused by the college students the campaign has canvassing in Iowa before and after Christmas?