Paul in double digits in new Iowa Poll: 10%, more than doubles

If Paul spikes and comes in second in IA, Mitt is done. Stick a fork in him.

If Paul comes in 3rd in IA, McCain, Giuliani and Thompson are done.

All four guys will stick around until 2/5, but somebody's ticket is not getting punched out of IA.
 
And note that this particular polling institution seems to always have lower polling results for Paul than competing polling institutions.
 
Wow...if we get a solid turnout of our 10% we might even have a good shot at placing first.

Amazingly Huckabee and Romney are likely to shed even MORE support with all the bad press lately. I think McCain is the only candidate other then Paul who could possibly surge this week up until election date.
 
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This explains the hit piece by Kristol on Fox this morning.

:D

(Okay, admission. When I read this, I burst into tears. :o)
 
If this result is not an outlier, then we should be gunning for first. A combination of high turnout and the following flaws in their polling methodology could put us over the top, if, once again, this 10% isn't an outlier.


ARG methodology: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/disclosure_project_results_fro.php
Asks four screen questions:

They ask whether respondents are registered to vote, and whether they are registered as Democrats or Republicans. Non-registrants are terminated and not interviewed. Same-day registration in Iowa, so this question drops many first-time voters not smart enough to lie on the first question.

They ask registrants how likely they are to participate in the Caucus "a 1-to-10 scale with 1 meaning definitely not participating and 10 meaning definitely participating." Those who answer 1 through 6 are terminated and not interviewed.

They ask unaffiliated registrants ("independents" registered as neither Democrats nor Republicans) whether they plan to participate in the Democratic or Republican caucus. Registered Democrats and independents who plan to caucus with the Democrats get the Democratic vote question; Registered Republicans and independents who plan to caucus with the Republicans answer the Republican question. So somebody who tells the pollster in the first quesiton that they're a registered democrat, but who intends to vote for Ron Paul, isn't given the opportunity to declare as much.

After asking vote question, they asks the question that appears on the web site: "Would you say that you definitely plan to participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, that you might participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus, or that you will probably not participate in the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus?" Only the definite are included in the final sample of likely caucus voters.
 
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