Paul can win NH.

[tbone717]

I see a lot of people here saying that the best we can do in NH is a strong second. While I believe in the grand scheme of things that might be good for the campaign, I think it is short sighted to play for second place.

If you average out the last two polls (I am ignoring the Suffolk poll, because the data is way off of the other two polls - not just for Paul but for others as well) you get: Mitt 31, Newt 23, Paul 19.5, Huntsman 10.5, Also-rans 8, Undecided 8. MOE is 4 on both polls. This is well within striking distance. Mitt is actually trending downward. The Insider poll is the first time he broke below 30. Newt is trending up, but we know elsewhere his support is moving away so it is only natural that it will do so here as well. If Paul wins IA, and wins it handily, he should see a nice bounce in NH. We could also see Newt support move away from him if he has a poor finish in IA. We might also see people move away from Huntsman, as they come to their senses and realize he is a fringe candidate running a quixotic campaign. So NH is definitely within reach, and a win there would propel Paul to the head of the pack going into the remaining early states.

This is why it is so important that we donate as much as we possibly can. Get that change bucket you have and cash it in today, so you can donate extra tomorrow. Whatever you need to do to be able to donate, do it.

Also, sign up for phone banking. We can win NH with a strong organizational effort and a GOTV program. Phone banking is what will do that for us.

Donate, call, and repeat until we win it all.

 

[bluesc]

A month ago, 2nd in NH was the best I could hope for. Winning there is now a possibility, as Iowa was a month ago. We are trending upward while Romney and Newt are going down.

I endorse this thread.

 

[TexMac]

LOL, I endorse this thread as well. Phone from Home and drag everyone you know to donate tomorrow. We can win.

 

[tbone717]

I'll throw another point out there to consider.

Do you think a lot of the Romney support comes from a "keeping up with the joneses" factor. We know that a lot of the southern area that is in the Boston MSA is filled with former Mass residents. A lot of them are upper middle class suburbanites. Could the Romney support in that area be less genuine, meaning that people are saying they support Romney because all their friends, neighbors and co-workers are supporting him? I am thinking when I say this of my father in law who lives in a upper middle class suburban Democrat area in Philly. All his friends were Obama people in 08, and he would outwardly state that he was supporting Obama, but when the curtain closed on election day he voted for McCain, but would never admit it to his friends.

 

[milo10]

I'll throw another point out there to consider.

Do you think a lot of the Romney support comes from a "keeping up with the joneses" factor. We know that a lot of the southern area that is in the Boston MSA is filled with former Mass residents. A lot of them are upper middle class suburbanites. Could the Romney support in that area be less genuine, meaning that people are saying they support Romney because all their friends, neighbors and co-workers are supporting him? I am thinking when I say this of my father in law who lives in a upper middle class suburban Democrat area in Philly. All his friends were Obama people in 08, and he would outwardly state that he was supporting Obama, but when the curtain closed on election day he voted for McCain, but would never admit it to his friends.

That's an interesting thought. I think there are a few variations of this. If there is a popular local politician, a lot of people will simply say they will vote for him/her to save the trouble of looking at the election too closely, and this can go on for some time. But as you get close to election day, you begin to look at the candidates and issues more closely.

 

[tbone717]

That's an interesting thought. I think there are a few variations of this. If there is a popular local politician, a lot of people will simply say they will vote for him/her to save the trouble of looking at the election too closely, and this can go on for some time. But as you get close to election day, you begin to look at the candidates and issues more closely.

The thing that got me thinking of this was actually looking at the Bachmann and Perry numbers. They are each around 7 points nationally and only 1 or 2 in NH. Just doesn't jive. So I can see someone saying to themselves - hey I like that Perry but could never admit that to my golf buddies.

 

[vechorik]

I called a lot yesterday, but after dinner I only had 1 hr. to spend, so I went for the NH list -- Found TWO "strong" Ron Paul supporters in 1 hr!
Phone from home DOES work! (From the way those two men talked -- they would be a wonderful asset to the campaign: knowledge, nice voice, sounded older)

Let's hit the PHONES HARD!

 

[69360]

A good performance tonight from Ron and some old fashioned mud slinging towards and by grinch/mittens might make it possible.

 

[georgiaboy]

in it to win it.

 

[Aratus]

we've seen five to ten polls that shift about 1st, 2nd and 3rd in iowa as the sample approach microcosm
reflects a different aspect of the macrocosm. what if new hampshire has it's similar shifts because of how
the sample is done each time and it is totally in chaos theory play so hard and fast as is iowa. it just is a
fact that when ron paul has people leap onto his bandwagon, they rarely leave. the turmoil among the others
who are top four has been increasing by slow degrees the people who find out about doctor ron paul's views.

 

[Alternative 336]

Honestly, I was just about post a thread concerning this subject. I think we can gain mass appeal not only from our win in Iowa, but also Leno and the moneybomb. I also think I am going to start doing phone from home this break. I know a girl in our ron paul group on campus who is traveling to Iowa and possibly New Hampshire over the break. We have a huge advantage with our grassroots support, and I think we are going to do really well in the coming weeks. We need to thrive off of this energy and get people motivated. Remember to use our showings in Iowa/NH to show that he can win and is the one to beat Obama! God bless!

 

[Aratus]

he can win it big

I see a lot of people here saying that the best we can do in NH is a strong second. While I believe in the grand scheme of things that might be good for the campaign, I think it is short sighted to play for second place.

If you average out the last two polls (I am ignoring the Suffolk poll, because the data is way off of the other two polls - not just for Paul but for others as well) you get: Mitt 31, Newt 23, Paul 19.5, Huntsman 10.5, Also-rans 8, Undecided 8. MOE is 4 on both polls. This is well within striking distance. Mitt is actually trending downward. The Insider poll is the first time he broke below 30. Newt is trending up, but we know elsewhere his support is moving away so it is only natural that it will do so here as well. If Paul wins IA, and wins it handily, he should see a nice bounce in NH. We could also see Newt support move away from him if he has a poor finish in IA. We might also see people move away from Huntsman, as they come to their senses and realize he is a fringe candidate running a quixotic campaign. So NH is definitely within reach, and a win there would propel Paul to the head of the pack going into the remaining early states.

This is why it is so important that we donate as much as we possibly can. Get that change bucket you have and cash it in today, so you can donate extra tomorrow. Whatever you need to do to be able to donate, do it.

Also, sign up for phone banking. We can win NH with a strong organizational effort and a GOTV program. Phone banking is what will do that for us.

Donate, call, and repeat until we win it all.

A month ago, 2nd in NH was the best I could hope for. Winning there is now a possibility, as Iowa was a month ago. We are trending upward while Romney and Newt are going down.

I endorse this thread.

LOL, I endorse this thread as well. Phone from Home and drag everyone you know to donate tomorrow. We can win.

I'll throw another point out there to consider.

Do you think a lot of the Romney support comes from a "keeping up with the joneses" factor. We know that a lot of the southern area that is in the Boston MSA is filled with former Mass residents. A lot of them are upper middle class suburbanites. Could the Romney support in that area be less genuine, meaning that people are saying they support Romney because all their friends, neighbors and co-workers are supporting him? I am thinking when I say this of my father in law who lives in a upper middle class suburban Democrat area in Philly. All his friends were Obama people in 08, and he would outwardly state that he was supporting Obama, but when the curtain closed on election day he voted for McCain, but would never admit it to his friends.

That's an interesting thought. I think there are a few variations of this. If there is a popular local politician, a lot of people will simply say they will vote for him/her to save the trouble of looking at the election too closely, and this can go on for some time. But as you get close to election day, you begin to look at the candidates and issues more closely.

The thing that got me thinking of this was actually looking at the Bachmann and Perry numbers. They are each around 7 points nationally and only 1 or 2 in NH. Just doesn't jive. So I can see someone saying to themselves - hey I like that Perry but could never admit that to my golf buddies.

I called a lot yesterday, but after dinner I only had 1 hr. to spend, so I went for the NH list -- Found TWO "strong" Ron Paul supporters in 1 hr!
Phone from home DOES work! (From the way those two men talked -- they would be a wonderful asset to the campaign: knowledge, nice voice, sounded older)

Let's hit the PHONES HARD!

A good performance tonight from Ron and some old fashioned mud slinging towards and by grinch/mittens might make it possible.

 

[tremendoustie]

Let's make this moneybomb epic.

 

[Working Poor]

this so exciting!

 

[braane]

I feel confident that he can win there. We just need to establish ourselves as the alternative to Romney. Newt is quickly losing that status and will probably be back down around 10% by Christmas. Couple that with a win in Iowa and it's not just an outside shot anymore. Some people REALLY don't like Romney.

 

[muzzled dogg]

in it to win it.

 

[Jeremy]

How convient that you're ignoring the poll that shows Ron doing worse. .______.

 

[Cody1]

How convient that you're ignoring the poll that shows Ron doing worse. .______.

.________.

 

[Aratus]

we are about to win iowa

hold onto your hats N.H!

 

[bluesc]

How convient that you're ignoring the poll that shows Ron doing worse. .______.

You mean the one that has him 13% lower than the one that came out the day before? 10 points lower than the other one that came out a day before? Yeah, I'm happy to ignore the one that has him the lowest since October when every other poll shows him gaining.