Paul beats Bush 5 to 4 in Iowa 1/18-1/24 Quinnipiac Poll

[rp08orbust]

This is good news for getting into the final pre-Iowa caucus debate, I assume:

LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS...

Trump 31
Cruz 29
Rubio 13
Carson 7
Paul 5
Bush 4

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2318

 

[Liberty74]

I would think not. Beating Bush in a state is irrelevant. My understanding is there is an average rule nationally then if that is not met, one must poll at certain number in either Iowa or NH. Bush is in because of NH. Not sure if 5% gets Rand in.

 

[JJ2]

Quinnipiac Iowa - Rand 5th

Trump 31
Cruz 29
Rubio 13
Carson 7
Paul 5
Bush 4
Christie 3
Huckabee 2
Kasich 1
Fiorina 1
Santorum 0
Gilmore 0
DK/NA 2

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia01262016_Ihrb73p.pdf

Absolute worst case scenario as of right now is KBUR poll is included and Iowa State/WHO poll is not, which would result in Bush 4.2% Paul 4.0%, which rounded off is still a tie.

 

[rp08orbust]

This poll was just added to the RCP average, and pushes Rand Paul into 5th in Iowa at 3.8%, ahead of Bush at 3.7%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

My understanding is that this ought to qualify Rand for the main debate, though there are better experts than I am on exactly which polls Fox News will consider.

 

[CPUd]

I would think not. Beating Bush in a state is irrelevant. My understanding is there is an average rule nationally then if that is not met, one must poll at certain number in either Iowa or NH. Bush is in because of NH. Not sure if 5% gets Rand in.

Wow. Pretty much everything you posted here is completely wrong.

 

[squirl22]

Does this cinch the debate for Rand?..if only Carson would drop out...

 

[CPUd]

This poll was just added to the RCP average, and pushes Rand Paul into 5th in Iowa at 3.8%, ahead of Bush at 3.7%.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

My understanding is that this ought to qualify Rand for the main debate, though there are better experts than I am on exactly which polls Fox News will consider.

They only include the latest 5, or 6 if the 5th was done concurrently with the 6th:

Definitely will include: Quinnipiac, ARG, FOX, CNN/ORC, DMR/Bloomberg
Definitely will not include: PPP, Gravis
Probably will not include: KBUR, CBS/YouGov
Probably will include : Loras, ISU

Current projection will have Rand and Bush tied for #5 in Iowa. The only way Bush beats him outright is if they include KBUR.

 

[rp08orbust]

Now if only Trump and Cruz rip each other to shreds in an ugly cage match on Thursday, leaving Rand as the serious and substantive anti-establishment alternative on the stage for their disgusted former supporters.

 

[CPUd]

Megyn Kelly will also be there to stir the pot.

 

[CPUd]

Does this cinch the debate for Rand?..if only Carson would drop out...

Based on what has been released so far, as long as they don't count the KBUR poll, he will at worst tie Bush for #5 in Iowa.

 

[rp08orbust]

Megyn Kelly will also be there to stir the pot.

Excellent! Though I thought Trump said he'd boycott if they brought her back.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

Based on what has been released so far, as long as they don't count the KBUR poll, he will at worst tie Bush for #5 in Iowa.

What makes you think Fox wouldn't do that ? I'd like to believe they wouldn't but what is the precedent ?

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

Excellent! Though I thought Trump said he'd boycott if they brought her back.

He says a lot of things.

 

[SilentBull]

Yes, he has to be in now. Worst case scenario he's tied with Bush. There is no combination of polls that can keep him out.

EDIT: I guess there is one combination: If they include KBUR and exclude CBS.

 

[SilentBull]

Wow. Pretty much everything you posted here is completely wrong.

Everything he posts is the opposite of reality.

 

[CPUd]

KBUR is a robopoll, they want live polling.

 

[FriedChicken]

Could somebody put together a easy to understand graphic of recent polls and only have Rand Vs. Bush on it? Might be good to put on Fox's sites ahead of their announcement.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

KBUR is a robopoll, they want live polling.

Ok, that makes sense. So in that case, unless a really bad poll comes out last-minute Rand is in ?

 

[Liberty74]

Wow. Pretty much everything you posted here is completely wrong.

Everything? Really? You're an idiot and have lost all credibility.

I just read the rules and I was spot on for the most part. Rand doesn't qualify nationally which is the average of polls. Must be top 6. CNN poll out today crushed that if included. Where I was slightly wrong was with the states. Must place average of top 5 in either instead of reaching a threshold. Bush makes it with NH polls easily, Rand does not in NH. Rand will be close in Iowa depending on which polls used.

 

[SilentBull]

Including CBS & KBUR:

Paul: 4.2
Bush: 3.8


Including CBS, Excluding KBUR:

Paul: 4
Bush: 3


Excluding CBS & KBUR

Paul: 4
Bush: 4

Excluding CBS, Including KBUR:

Paul: 4
Bush: 4.2