Paul At 4% And Huckabee AT 22% In Iowa?!?

[reduen]

Guys I gotta be honest, I am somewhat envious of what Huckabee has done and with almost no money! (I will not vote for him but dang.)

As I think of this I have to wonder what it is that we are not doing. We have money, massive rabid support, the right message and the best messenger by far.

What am I missing?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20071219/pl_nm/usa_poll_politics_dc

"Huckabee moved ahead of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who was in third place at 16 percent, former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson at 13 percent, Arizona Sen. John McCain at 12 percent and Texas Rep. Ron Paul at 4 percent."

 

[xexkxex]

It's not us ....it's how the polls are set up.

Once you understand how each poll is conducted you realize that they are in fact propaganda.

Nothing more. We are doing everything correctly and working very hard.

We are going to do very well in the first states....Trust Me!

 

[RobertJ]

Huckabee didnt do anything, the neocon media is giving him free airtime so he doesnt need donations. This should be obvious, huckabee is broke yet is on tv 24/7.

 

[JoeSixPack]

A lot of people just want a preacher to lead them and everyone else. They aren't interested in freedom, but actually want a theocracy and are happy being sheep. There are a lot of them and Huck will be their vote. It's unfortunate but strong religion and freedom seldom go together. America has been rather unique in having strong religion and freedom in the past, but I think that's changing.

 

[AlexMerced]

it's really easy to understand, most likely voters are older, and most likely voters don't like listening to complex intellectual drivel no matter how important. Like the saying, can't teach an old dog new tricks. Some old people get it, but most were never explained these issues so when Ron Paul explains them it hurts their head.

- Ron Pauls appeal is that he addresses these compelx issues, which is why he appeals to young people, we are still learning so it appeals to that.

- If your an older supporter of Ron Paul you probably have some level of previous knowledge of these issues and/or voted for paul in 88


RON PAUL CAN't WATER DOWN THE MESSAGE, accept it


It's the difference between a big budget film and a quirky indie classic, the indie classic is a much better film but is over the head of most people. Think of Huckabee as Linkin Park and Ron Paul as Radiohead, both successful, but if you look at the numbers Linkin Park has a lot more fans but RadioHead success comes from it's many LOYAL fans.

Huck is the only other candidate with loyal fans, but our loyal fans outnumber them exponentially, turnout will be the difference.

The polls are fun, but it isn't our strongest metric for GOOD reasons.

To be mainstream usually increases numbers but not loyalty, we have loyalty, so we will have turnout. We arn't trying to have a Huckabee surge cause it's not in our best interest. We need to grow slowly but make sure every new supporter is LOYAL.



Conclusion: It's an intellectual Divide, most people on this board are fairly intellectual... anyone else notice this trend

 

[sharedvoice]

I swear if I see another fucking thread about a POLL im going to go ballistic. We already know they are biased and far from accurate. They don't even include Dr. Paul. There has already been push-polling going on. Come on folk wake the hell up! I am tired of seeing these threads like it is something new.

 

[Adamsa]

Huckabee has more support in Iowa, but traditional polling is better set to his type of audience, Ron's support is flying under the radar so far, lets hope theres more of it than we think.

 

[RobertJ]

If the sun was named Ron Paul, the media and polls would tell you it will not rise tomorrow morning. Anyone who thinks ANY poll is fair does not know frank luntz. Every polster has a frank luntz.

 

[kylejack]

Churchnet is powerful in Iowa. Pat Robertson came in second there in 1988 with 25% of the vote. PAT ROBERTSON. Alan Keyes came in third with 14% of the vote in 2000. Jesusland loves candidates that wear their religion on their sleeve.

 

[Crickett]

Remember, too, that Yuck is VERY charismatic. You almost get a "buzz" when you shake his hand. He comes off super folksy. He loves to hunt. He has pedigreed hunting dogs. He likes fishing. He speaks like an old timey preacher who is guarding you from the gates of fire and brimstone. He tells good jokes..especially when he doesn't know what to say--and he will say whatever he knows you want to hear. He comes off very honest and forthright, when he is indeed anything BUT...

 

[Goldwater Conservative]

The media has pimped him relentlessly. Huckleberry practically moved into the state, which is easy for him since he's out of work. Evangelicals make up a huge chunk of the electorate there, and religion is Huck's one trick.

And despite all this, his support is still soft and unmotivated. Also, being in a strong first this early on is bad, because many people will take that as a cue that they don't have to bother voting.

When you factor in that the polls underestimate Paul's numbers more than those of the other candidates and that his supporters are far more likely to show up, it's not quite a gulf. Still, there's work to be done. I can only pray that Huck's "supporters" leave everything to prayer.

 

[Claire]

I don't mean to poke fun, but if you need to boost your spirits, go check this out:
www.mikehuckabeeforum.com and read the dialog as Mike detonates his "money bomb" on November 20. I heard (after the fact) that he was doing it, and was afraid he was going to show us up for a pathetic little band of chumps. What I found was so funny, I thought for a moment the "Paultards" had done it as a spoof, but it is as real as it gets. It is what finally convinced me that the polls are NOT reflecting the truth on the ground, although I think it is due to anitquated method more than conspiracy.

 

[NinjaPirate]

It's all because of Chuck Norris.

 

[Liberty]

I'm reading this as a national poll, not Iowa.

 

[Concerned Supporter]

...
And despite all this, his support is still soft and unmotivated. Also, being in a strong first this early on is bad, because many people will take that as a cue that they don't have to bother voting.
...

great points. huck is gaining but his support is very hallow. what will happen when people have to caucus for him and then realize the only arguing point they have about him is that he comes off as a nice guy?

but i also dont like all this, "we arent being polled. thats why we arent showing up and we still have a chance."

faith might be working for huckaboo but i would love to have some stronger evidence about our actual support in the early states. :o

 

[Paul/Belichick08]

You can either believe the polls are accurate or not...

I don't think they are. I'm not even saying that there is a media conspiracy to keep Ron Paul out of the news( although that wouldn't surprise me) just that I think his support is vastly underreported.

Think about it, the polls rarely call cellphones, don't call people who haven't voted before, don't call people who didn't vote last primary, don't call independents (usually) or ex-democrats, etc. I think it is very safe to assume his support is at least double or triple what it registers in mainstream polls.

Not to mention that it is a lot easier to say you are going to vote for someone than to actually go out and vote on a cold day in January. Don't let the polls get you down, just keep working on getting the message out there.

 

[mwkaufman]

I'm reading this as a national poll, not Iowa.

Can't believe it took a whole page for someone to point this out.

Yeah, Giuliani is leading in Iowa with 23%.

 

[homah]

What am I missing?

People are sheep.

 

[Alex Libman]

They're only polling the "Dubya fanclub" from 2004, so no wonder the most Bush-like candidate is winning!

Somebody ought to tell them that other people can vote too... Or maybe they'll keep me from the voting booth because I've just re-registered as Republican or don't have a land-line?!?

 

[Kuldebar]

The unfortunate reality is that many people in their sheep like state will only vote for some one they believe can win.

So, the polls serve that purpose by "informing" people who aren't really paying attention to the race and issues who the likely winner will be...

It won't have to be vote fraud that throws elections, all it takes is the apporopriate manipulation of the ignorant and uninformed voters that tend to treat politics as if it's a football betting pool.

Pollsters shovel out the image that the status quo wants to sell us. Political marketing, smoke and mirrors.