http://i495blues.blogspot.com/2007/09/open-letter-to-ron-paul-community.html
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Open Letter to the Ron Paul Community
Okay, Ron Paul supporters... it's time for an intervention. You've been running wild at the seams for the last few months and someone needed to sit you down and let you know what you're up against. It's not going to be an easy road, but you've done marvelous work with what you have so far. The good news is that you're going to inch up in the polls more and more. The bad news is that it's not going to make the difference. Ron Paul is going to lose and lose badly. That is, unless you change your ways a bit...
First, a little about me. For better or for worse, you can classify me as a political operative. I'm young, but I've had pretty lengthy experience in Republican campaign politics. Primarily in the southeast, I've managed, consulted, and volunteered on nearly 20 campaigns, with the vast majority for federal candidates (ie U.S. House, Senate, and Presidential campaigns). I've consulted with a couple of international political operations. And as of now, I'm a senior director at one of the largest and well-established political technology firms in the nation (also the reason why I'm not officially involved with any of the Presidentials right now). So, not to toot my own horn or anything, but I'm pretty confident in what I'm talking about here.
I should also mention that I'm a huge fan of Ron Paul... a contributor at that (which I rarely do because of public reporting requirements on the campaigns).
But in watching and following the Presidential campaign unfold, I'm deeply worried that the Ron Paul campaign will go the same route as the Howard Dean's of election-day past. In fact, it's a very real possibility that Ron Paul = Howard Dean 2.0. That's not to say that the Paul community shouldn't take a hard look at the challenges facing them commit to avoiding the same traps that the Dean's of the world have already exposed.
So, to present my thoughts in the most digestible and compelling way possible, I give you...
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Five lessons the Ron Paul community MUST learn between today and the first primaries:
5: Calm the hell down
First off... don't do this:
(the first 1:30 of this video)
It freaks people out. Chill out with the protest-style chants, and the Revolutionary costumes, and the CFR talk, and the 9-11 was an inside job talk, and whatever else it is. It's turning off the voters.
Yes, I know that its fun. And in the past, the bombastic presence was needed just to get the exposure. But people are aware of the campaign, and now is the real chance to convince voters. You have to remember that you're not catering to yourselves anymore. Once you hit campaign politics, the nature of what you're doing is taking someone who does not support your candidate, and convincing them do otherwise. That means directly marketing to them, where they are at, without turning them off in the process. Remember, your average primary Republican voter is not 20-something year old iPod user who dreams of an end to the war on drugs solely so he can pick up his bud from the corner store. You're dealing with moms and pops, church goers, the elderly, soccer moms, NASCAR dads, etc. The more to speak to them at their level, the better it will be for the Paul campaign.
4: Stop fudging about or discounting the polls
No, I'm not talking about the "survey-spamming" that the pundits allege. That's all fun and games that, in the end, will have no bearing on the elections, one way or another. I'm talking about here is the tendency for supporters to see a new poll come out that has Ron Paul in the low single digits, and immediately exclaim that the poll is biased or inaccurate.
Let me say this once. For the most part, pollsters are professional and competent and stake their name on the accuracy of their polls. They've spent a lot of time and money on getting the formula for administering a political poll just right. They continuously tweak and modify their methodology to account for changes in the demographic. And they double and triple check their work before they put it out there under their banner. Everything you can think up that may invalidate poll numbers, they've already thought about it... 10 times over. Bottom line here is that when a good, independent poll results are released, chances are, it's closer to the truth than to fiction.
So, if you see Ron Paul polling in single digits within a month of the first primary, then you need to realize that, Yes... less than 10% of voters in that area support Ron Paul. Don't wait for a rush of new voters that the pollsters are missing because of cell phones or what have you. They're not there. They didn't come out for Dean, they didn't come out for Kerry (over Bush of all people)... they are not going to come out for Ron Paul at the last second. As Hunter S. Thompson best put it after the 2004 elections... "The young bastards have let us down again." And they will do it again, I promise you.
3: Money (for better or for worse) is the key to mainstream acceptance
For those of you who hate the influence that money has in politics... join the club. We all do. But for those of you who do not admit that it's here to stay and is a way of life, stop wasting everyones time.
You need to contribute to the campaign. You absolutely need to... especially before the September 30th deadline. I can't begin to explain how important it is for the Paul campaign to show a healthy fundraising quarter to the media. It drives everything... from media coverage, to more support, more donations (people donate to a winner), and more advertising when it counts.
The Paul campaign has proven themselves to be frugal and smart about the dollars they've raised so far. It looks like they are saving it for when it really matters. And that's a good thing... it means that your dollars will be well spent. There is no reason NOT to give right now. If you haven't contributed whatever you can, then you might as well support another candidate.
Contribute Now
2: Time to go Offline
I don't even have to mention how great the internet is. But, for the vast majority of us, you can blog, survey-spam, youtube, podcast, SecondLife, and twitter yourself to death and still not make a difference in this election. While the internet is a great vehicle for fundraising and media distribution during a general election, during the primaries, it's all about reaching out and talking to potential voters. Please continue to use the Internet to help organize, fundraise, and share information... but simply understand that the internet itself will not win an election. Knock on doors, Knock on doors, Knock on doors (and let the campaign handle mass communications over radio and TV).
1: Talk (literally talk) to the SuperVoters
First, a "SuperVoter" in the canvassing world is defined as a registered voter who has voted in a particular election three (or more) consecutive times. So, if you are looking towards the NH Presidential Primary, a SuperVoter is someone who has voted in the last three presidential primaries (04, 00, and 96). These special individuals are the holy grail of grassroots canvassing and direct mail.
Why, might you ask?
Well, play out the numbers. A newly registered voter has a, lets say, 50% chance of voting in an upcoming election (It's actually much smaller, but I don't remember the exact numbers of the top of my head). Now, when you compare that with a SuperVoter, who consistently has a 90%+ probability rate of voting said election, it's obvious who you should waste your time on. It's the SuperVoters who matter. Believe me. You convert a SuperVoter to Ron Paul and that's easily worth a $500 contribution to the campaign. And also remember that voters (especially SuperVoters) are pretty likely to encourage their family and friends to vote the same way. SuperVoters usually have friends who are also SuperVoters. Get my drift?
You can get lists of SuperVoters to contact from the official campaign. If they don't have the records to give to you A) I'd be very very surprised and B) You can get them from the VoterListsOnline.com service (Disclosure: VoterListsOnline.com is a service from the company I work for, but this is not intended as a plug. Just earnest advice). You'd need someone from the official campaign to vouch for you in order to gain access, but from there, you can make a small selection of voters, purchase the list (for the campaign), and begin to contact the right voters.
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So, there you have it. My two cents what the Ron Paul campaign can do to gain real traction in the upcoming months. Fortunately for him, it's already started to happen. But there's much much more to be done. Until then, I'll see you in January.
