On this day, polling numbers in 2011

[RichardAlpert]

Just looking at the RCP average numbers:

Hermain Cain - 25%

Mitt Romney - 24%

Rick Perry - 10.5%

Newt Gingrich - 9%

Ron Paul - 8.5%

Bachman - 3.8%


This is in a field of 8 candidates (interestingly with Huntsman and Santorum with barely registering numbers who ended up sky rocketing right before the primaries in New Hampshire and Iowa respectively)

At this point in 2011, Bachman had risen and fizzles; Perry is on the downward slide, as Herman Cain replacing him as the anti-establishment (anti-Romney) pick of the month, with Gingrich just starting his rise (which will peak in 1-2 months)


How does this translate into what we're seeing this year? I think the desire for an anti-establishment candidate is much much stronger with many more anti-establishment candidates in the mix, which is hurting Rand Paul. Even in a smaller circle, he is splitting the vote with Ted Cruz.
Also, it is still way to early to call an eventual nominee and as history points out, many things can happen between now and the primaries.

I do like Rand's strategy of working on the ground game in both Iowa and NH, as well as other early favorable primary states

 

[69360]

Just like every 4 years, it's still silly season. Trump and Carson have no political experience and aren't serious candidates.

 

[RichardAlpert]

I wonder who's gonna be the next hot thing? Is it Rubio?

 

[CPUd]

I wonder who's gonna be the next hot thing? Is it Rubio?

It was his time, but as usual, he may have screwed that up over the last weekend.

 

[CaptUSA]

I wonder who's gonna be the next hot thing? Is it Rubio?

I made another post about this... I think they're going to drive a Rubio vs Bush rivalry into a storyline they can use. They'll both take some hits, but they'll both benefit in the polls just because that's where the media will focus their attention.

In this day and age, it doesn't matter what positions you hold, what you say, or what you do. All that matters is that the media is focusing on you. It's worth a good 20 points in the polls. More, when the field is smaller.

 

[angelatc]

At this point in 2011, Bachman had risen and fizzled...

Rizzled. Should be a word.

 

[RichardAlpert]

Rizzled. Should be a word.

haha; that's awesome

 

[brandon]

I wonder who's gonna be the next hot thing? Is it Rubio?

Probably Jeb making a comeback.

 

[Jackie Moon]

Just looking at the RCP average numbers:

Hermain Cain - 25%

Mitt Romney - 24%

Rick Perry - 10.5%

Newt Gingrich - 9%

Ron Paul - 8.5%

Bachman - 3.8%


This is in a field of 8 candidates (interestingly with Huntsman and Santorum with barely registering numbers who ended up sky rocketing right before the primaries in New Hampshire and Iowa respectively)

At this point in 2011, Bachman had risen and fizzles; Perry is on the downward slide, as Herman Cain replacing him as the anti-establishment (anti-Romney) pick of the month, with Gingrich just starting his rise (which will peak in 1-2 months)


How does this translate into what we're seeing this year? I think the desire for an anti-establishment candidate is much much stronger with many more anti-establishment candidates in the mix, which is hurting Rand Paul. Even in a smaller circle, he is splitting the vote with Ted Cruz.
Also, it is still way to early to call an eventual nominee and as history points out, many things can happen between now and the primaries.

I do like Rand's strategy of working on the ground game in both Iowa and NH, as well as other early favorable primary states

Yeah, it's important to look back and remember how much polling at this point really means. Not much. Someone currently at the bottom might rise all the way to the top, and someone currently at the top might not even be around in another couple months.

Also in 2011 the debates started 3 months earlier and the Iowa Caucus was a month earlier... so even looking at this day in history translates to a later part of the cycle last time.

On this day in 2011 there had already been 8 debates.

Just like every 4 years, it's still silly season. Trump and Carson have no political experience and aren't serious candidates.

Agree. People are so fluid with their support, and we're still in the part of the race where the Bachman's and Hermain Cain's can be a frontrunner.

At this point people still can say they want an "outsider", but someone with no experience that has never been elected to any office will not win. As we know, even members of the House are huge longshots to win the nomination. A governor or a senator will win.

Rizzled. Should be a word.