People were screaming about gold and complaining how it went down to $700 as late as early last year. The message from me has always been the same. Buy some gold every month if you aren't comfortable with price fluctuations. I can bump a bunch of threads of people talking about "pullbacks to $800" and "taking profit at $950". Those pullbacks never came.
OLD THREAD:Gold will plummet: the dollar will strengthen.
- Thread starter YumYum
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Truth-Bringer
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It can't. It can only weaken now that it has no gold backing. However, what has kept it afloat since 1971 is a de facto oil backing due to the petrol "recycling" agreements with the Middle East. But now they're looking to back out of that. They want something other than dollars for that oil. Once that happens (a gradual transition over the next 10 years) there will be nothing backing the dollar.
All trends and pressures are on the dollar to continue losing value.
Original_Intent
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L
LibForestPaul
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This statement is illogical. I do not have to sell anything for your dollars. I can demand gold, euros, and wons if I so choose. Only debt has legal tender monopoly protection.
tmosley
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Just thought I would bump this thread, as it a year has now passed since I made my famous offer to YumYum to back up his beliefs with cold, hard gold. He failed to accept. Bully for him, as the bet was that I would pay him last year's price for an oz of gold on this day, delivered. That would have been $1182.70 paid for an item now worth $1504.19. Honestly, it wasn't as much of a blowout as I was expecting. I thought we would be into hyperinflation by now. Guess not.
I bet he's DAMN glad I didn't accept his lopsided and foolhardy bet for $100,000.
I bet he's DAMN glad I didn't accept his lopsided and foolhardy bet for $100,000.
puppetmaster
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we....this board, is always early to the party. We all predict the right things but always expect it too early
gonegolfin
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No ... YY was repeatedly calling for significant Fed tightening to take place in early 2010. The exact opposite has occurred.
Brian
yea but i have 100% confidence that Ben will do all the wrong things. and the short pit falls with be very short it will be like yesterday in PMs
tmosley
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I'm afraid there is no defense. He was just plain wrong.
As is Prector.
We have already had massive credit destruction, yet gold is at record highs regardless. More credit destruction isn't going to change that. What was the Einsteinian definition of insanity? It applies here.
There was a tightening of credit in early 2010. I thought the Fed would up rates slightly in in either March or early April, but as you know they only upped the discount rate. The dollar did get stronger; I was right about that, but my timing on gold was wrong. But today is different, I predicted back in November something bad would happen in either late summer or the fall. Gold right now is plummeting and the dollar is strengthening. People are selling stocks and metals/commodities. What do you make of this? Did you sell your positions in gold or are you do you believe this is a pullback and plan to buy more?
Yes, during the 365 days since the orignial post silver "plummeted" from $17 to $25.70 (51% "drop") and gold "plummeted" from $1050 to $1360 (30%
"collapse")
YY, we have to accept by now that no FED tightening would be happening in a foreseable future. The congress and president would not allow this to happen since otherwise it would mean an immidiate collapse of governments at all levels and a very deep depression. With no FED tightening, we'll get the depression anyway, but with inflation and polititians claiming they did all they could.
gonegolfin
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No, they did not tighten credit. As I explained to you, the discount rate is meaningless. Not only is nobody using the discount window, nobody needs to use the discount window as plenty of funds are available for much less than the discount rate.
Also as I have explained, the federal funds rate is meaningless in this monetary environment. The only thing the Fed can do now to manipulate interest rates is to adjust the interest rate paid on reserves. They did not do that. But even raising the interest rate on reserves means nothing more than more money for the banks if the Fed does not drain reserves from the banking system.
Not only is the Fed not draining reserves, it is aggressively added to them.
Brian
Yes, during the 365 days since the orignial post silver "plummeted" from $17 to $25.70 (51% "drop") and gold "plummeted" from $1050 to $1360 (30%
"collapse")
YY, we have to accept by now that no FED tightening would be happening in a foreseable future. The congress and president would not allow this to happen since otherwise it would mean an immidiate collapse of governments at all levels and a very deep depression. With no FED tightening, we'll get the depression anyway, but with inflation and polititians claiming they did all they could.
So, do you think this is just a minor correction? Isn't this an insider's game with the big banks manipulating the markets? How can anybody know what is going to happen? My predictions were based on history, and history repeats itself. What do you think?
gonegolfin
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Gold is not plummeting. If you think Gold is plummeting, you have no experience in these types of markets.
You can see some of my recent trading comments on Gold and the S&P here ... http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=268482.
These corrections are not only expected, they are predictable within several ticks. This is healthy in a Gold/Silver bull market. Buying strength must always be renewed. Silver approaching $30 this fast is insanity. But it will get there in time.
I took significant profits in Gold and Silver bullion and mining stocks a couple of weeks ago and have been trading the obvious patterns. I expect a correction to more sane levels. But it is just that ... a correction. We are not in a bubble (the often repeated phrase by the clueless media) and Gold is not doomed ... we are in an expected corrective pattern ... and when completed, we will be challenging new highs after buying strength is renewed. I do not have a target to the downside yet. I just hope I did not take profits too early on my core holdings. My bias is only somewhat bearish in the short term.
As for the US Dollar, it has staged a couple of very meek rallies (from very low levels ... the US Dollar has been a dog this year) ... only to be rebuffed and turn lower. It has failed to take out several look-to-the-left peaks on the chart, which is bearish. The 78.70 level on the cash index needs to be taken out before we can even consider the Dollar staging any sort of rally. Reaching this level will result in more corrective action in Gold/Silver.
Brian
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