Numbers games-->Late November DMR polling in 2007 vs 2011

[Agorism]

Here is 2007 DMR poll in late November

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statew...lican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008#Iowa

Des Moines Register November 25–28, 2007 Mike Huckabee 29%, Mitt Romney 24%, Rudy Giuliani 13%, Fred Thompson 9%, John McCain 7%, Ron Paul 7%, Tom Tancredo 6%, Duncan Hunter 1%, John Cox -%, Alan Keyes -%, Undecided 4%

Now compare that to the actual caucus real results.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#2008_process

2008 - Mike Huckabee (34%), Mitt Romney (25%), Fred Thompson (13%), John McCain (13%), Ron Paul (10%), Rudy Giuliani (4%), and Duncan Hunter (1%)

Huckabee saw a 15% improvement from november DMR poll in real caucus
Paul saw a 30% improvement from november DMR poll in real caucus
McCain saw 47% improvement from november DMR poll in real caucus
Thompson saw 31% improvement from november DMR poll in real caucus
Guiliani saw 70% decline from november DMR poll in real caucus
Hunter was same in real caucus
Romney was virtually the same saw 4% increase in real caucus



vs 2012

Here is 2012 DMR poll in late November. Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducted the poll of 401 likely Republican caucusgoers Nov. 27-30

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/03/iowa-poll-gingrich-leading-the-pack

Gingrich 25%, Paul is at 18%, Romney 16%, Bachmann at 8%, Cain at 8%m Perry 6%, Santorum 6%, Hunt 2%

If we get a 30% increase that would put us at around 23% final percent in the real caucus.

 

[sailingaway]

It is more telling to look at polls of Obama, because more independents and first time voters went to him last time, and this time they are looking to the GOP. However, I don't know how much it might mess us up that students won't be at school.

 

[Agorism]

Des Moines Register
Sample Size: 800
Margin of Error: ±3.5%
December 27–30, 2007 Mike Huckabee 32%, Mitt Romney 26%, John McCain 13%, Ron Paul 9%, Fred Thompson 9%, Rudy Giuliani 5%, Alan Keyes 1%, Duncan Hunter 1%, Undecided 4%

The final Des Moines Register poll will tell us where we're at mostly


Also- most of the candidates had an improvement by the final caucus from november DMR poll with the exception of Guiliani whose campaign fell apart by then and Romney who was already maxed out. Hunter was so small it's not worth considering.

 

[EuRa]

Paul will garner more votes for quite a few reasons this time around:

-- Polling is conducted primarily on land-lines. Most of Ron Paul's supporters are cell users.
-- People generally voted for those they thought had a chance to win. Many supporters in 2007/8 didn't vote for Paul because they didn't think he had a shot. He does this year, so those numbers could rise even more.
-- There was a wider variety of candidates to vote for in 2007/8. People like Thompson took away votes from Paul. Nobody is going to take votes away from Paul this time.
-- 5 people ended with double digit totals in 2008, while only 3 people (probably) will in 2012.
-- Paul is MUCH more organized and advertised than he was in 2007/8.

 

[Oddone]

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/obama-pulls-ahead-in-register-poll/

Obama 32% , Mrs. Clinton 25%, Mr. Edwards 24%

 

[Agorism]

Paul will garner more votes for quite a few reasons this time around:

-- Polling is conducted primarily on land-lines. Most of Ron Paul's supporters are cell users.
-- People generally voted for those they thought had a chance to win. Many supporters in 2007/8 didn't vote for Paul because they didn't think he had a shot. He does this year, so those numbers could rise even more.
-- There was a wider variety of candidates to vote for in 2007/8. People like Thompson took away votes from Paul. Nobody is going to take votes away from Paul this time.
-- 5 people ended with double digit totals in 2008, while only 3 people (probably) will in 2012.
-- Paul is MUCH more organized and advertised than he was in 2007/8.

IDK I tend to think most of that is accounted for in the DMR poll already. Either he has another surge or he doesn't. If he doesn't but doesn't crash either, we probably end with 21-23% or somewhere around there, which is right where Buchanan was.

 

[kylejack]

Paul will garner more votes for quite a few reasons this time around:

-- Polling is conducted primarily on land-lines. Most of Ron Paul's supporters are cell users.

This is a debunked 2008 myth. The polling was roughly accurate in 2008.

Having worked for Gallup, I can tell you we absolutely polled cell phones.

 

[Agorism]

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/12/31/obama-pulls-ahead-in-register-poll/

Obama 32% , Mrs. Clinton 25%, Mr. Edwards 24%

That was the December poll though. We'll get one of those in a couple weeks.

ps- I wish DMR would poll December twice.

 

[Oddone]

This is a debunked 2008 myth. The polling was roughly accurate in 2008.

Having worked for Gallup, I can tell you we absolutely polled cell phones.

I don't have a land-line. I have only used cellphones since 2002. Most students do not have land-lines either. I'm sure we will see a boost, how big I dunno.

 

[kylejack]

I don't have a land-line. I have only used cellphones since 2002. Most students do not have land-lines either. I'm sure we will see a boost, how big I dunno.

And some day you might get a call from a pollster. Gallup and most other pollsters use randomly-dialed numbers.

 

[Fermli]

Haha, I was lookin at the 08 numbers just a couple hours ago. Weird coincidence that you made this thread.

I noticed each candidates poll numbers changed quite a bit in the final month, more than I expected. Romney was 14 points behind Huck but made up a lot of ground in the final month, at least according to the RCP average. Even on the Dem Side, Obama finished 10 points above his 12/10/2008 RCP average and Edwards 8 points above.

I also want to believe that some new indies/dems/apolitical people will discover Paul due to the publicity in the final 2-3 weeks prior to the caucus, and come and vote for him. I do think Paul will get 23-25% in the caucus.

 

[Johncjackson]

I don't have a land-line. I have only used cellphones since 2002. Most students do not have land-lines either. I'm sure we will see a boost, how big I dunno.

But this is not a difference from 2008. It was the same situation back then and this theory did not hold true. Polling mostly matches up with results. And the post that was in response to gave the cell phone users as a reason he would get more votes this time around. Same deal as last time.

 

[Steppenwolf6]

The cell phone theory does not hold,ok,but the :
"he does a little bit better than he polls" theory still does,somehow.

 

[Agorism]

The cell phone theory does not hold,ok,but the :
"he does a little bit better than he polls" theory still does,somehow.

Yes, McCain, Paul and Huck all did better in the end then the DMR poll in Nov.

That's why I added about 30% when I said 21-23% or so.

 

[Xenophage]

Here is 2007 DMR poll in late November

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statew...lican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2008#Iowa



Now compare that to the actual caucus real results.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#2008_process



Huckabee saw a 15% improvement from november DMR poll in real caucus
Paul saw a 30% improvement from november DMR poll in real caucus
McCain saw 47% improvement from november DMR poll in real caucus
Thompson saw 31% improvement from november DMR poll in real caucus
Guiliani saw 70% decline from november DMR poll in real caucus
Hunter was same in real caucus
Romney was virtually the same saw 4% increase in real caucus



vs 2012

Here is 2012 DMR poll in late November. Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducted the poll of 401 likely Republican caucusgoers Nov. 27-30

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/03/iowa-poll-gingrich-leading-the-pack




If we get a 30% increase that would put us at around 23% final percent in the real caucus.

Your math is wrong. You're doing it backwards.

7 is 30% *less* than 10, but 10 is 42.86% *more* than 7. Ergo, Paul did not see a 30% improvement, but actually a 42.86% one. The same improvement would yield us 25.71% in Iowa in 2012. Sounds a bit like the commissioned poll, doesn't it?

 

[Agorism]

good catch. That was the number George Will was betting on on ABC roundtable this sunday (around 25% for Paul.)

Although it's worth noting that Huck's improvement was not as much as some of the candidates with lower numbers so it could be that as your numbers get higher these polls will be closer to the number you actually get.

 

[Xenophage]

good catch. That was the number George Will was betting on on ABC roundtable this sunday (around 25% for Paul.)

Although it's worth noting that Huck's improvement was not as much as some of the candidates with lower numbers so it could be that as your numbers get higher these polls will be closer to the number you actually get.

.

Yes, and I've actually considered the possibility that Paul comes in lower than his polling shows, too. I hope that doesn't happen, but it is possible, because I think as our numbers go higher we're likely drawing from a pool of voters with soft support.

 

[SkarnkaiLW]

Last opinion poll is most accurate poll and the only one that matters, because the polling firm's rep is on the line. After all its the only one tested vs an actual vote. The rest may be accurate or may be push polls of Frank Luntz fame, depends on the goals of the firm and their clients directives I imagine