Just about every possibility has been covered, but maybe not this slight variation. If Paul is not on ballot,
(1) if the race in my state or the overall election is not close, largest 3rd party, probably Libertarian. Even if Johnson is a fake, he's not going to win, and it would send a message. I want to make sure my vote is counted, hence no Paul write-in.
(2) if the race in my state and the overall election is close, Obama. The best way to take over the GOP is to make sure they're defeated again.
Fortunately I don't think (2) is going to happen as I don't ever want to have to vote for a Dem.
(1) if the race in my state or the overall election is not close, largest 3rd party, probably Libertarian. Even if Johnson is a fake, he's not going to win, and it would send a message. I want to make sure my vote is counted, hence no Paul write-in.
(2) if the race in my state and the overall election is close, Obama. The best way to take over the GOP is to make sure they're defeated again.
Fortunately I don't think (2) is going to happen as I don't ever want to have to vote for a Dem.