NH: Federal Forecast predicts Paul, Obama will come out on top

[PAULinSC]

http://www.seacoastonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080107/NEWS/80107012

PORTSMOUTH — The results are in and the latest poll shows Republican Ron Paul and Democrat Barack Obama will win the New Hampshire Primary by nearly 30 points.

Well, it’s not exactly a formal poll, but Leonard Seagren, co-owner of Federal Cigar, claims the “Federal Forecast” — the matchbook poll held at the Ladd Street smoke shop, which is a 24-year-old Seacoast tradition — has an 80 percent success ratio. The poll, which took place from Monday to Sunday, reflected statewide polls in some ways and greatly differed in others.

Long-shot Paul won the Republican nomination in New Hampshire with 31 percent. He was follows by John McCain (27 percent), Rudy Giuliani (21 percent), Mike Huckabee (10 percent), Mitt Romney (8 percent), Fred Thompson (2 percent) and Duncan Hunter (no votes).

The Democrat results showed Obama, a known smoker, would win easily with 46 percent of the votes. The big surprise came from Dennis Kucinich, who tied for second with John Edwards, at 17 percent support — both beating out Hillary Clinton’s 13 percent. They were followed by Joe Biden (4 percent) and Chris Dodd (3 percent), who have dropped out of the race since the poll started. Bill Richardson brought up the rear at 1 percent.

In total 120 people voted with 60 percent Democrats and 40 percent voting for a Republican, which were the most surprising numbers to Seagren.

“Our Seacoast people are very liberal so I am surprised at the ratio,” said Seagren. “That’s just my opinion, but typically Portsmouth has demonstrated a liberal bend.”

In the 2000 and 2004 primaries, the poll missed the winner just once with Seacoast residents voting for Vermont Gov. Howard Dean over Sen. John Kerry in 2004.

“Overall, I’m very happy with the results,” said Seagren.

 

[msirilla]

http://www.seacoastonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080107/NEWS/80107012

Why is it that every grassroots-type, "non-scientific" poll has folk like Ron Paul and Dennis Kuscinich coming out on top, but all the MSM "scientific" polls have them last or near last?!!!

It could be that the majority of Americans surveyed by the MSM polls are uninformed or unduly influenced or simply just like pablum!

On the other hand, it could be that the MSM forms opinion rather than informs about facts.

Probably a bit of both.

 

[NYgs23]

I think all these other polls measure voter enthusiasm for the candidate and Paul/Kucinich voters are more enthusiastic. Unfortunately, it's also apparent that there are a lot of zombies who aren't really enthusiastic and don't really participate in anything like this, but nontheless lurch out on voting day out of custom to vote CFR and ruin America for those of us who actually give a damn.

 

[Lotheron]

I think all these other polls measure voter enthusiasm for the candidate and Paul/Kucinich voters are more enthusiastic. Unfortunately, it's also apparent that there are a lot of zombies who aren't really enthusiastic and don't really participate in anything like this, but nontheless lurch out on voting day out of custom to vote CFR and ruin America for those of us who actually give a damn.

I agree. Unfortunatly this sounds an awful like the coffee bean poll. Instead need to focus on getting *real* votes.

 

[dseisner]

There was a time when the people involved in this campaign didn't listen to the polls...I guess that time is over. Maybe we should focus on getting people to the polls tomorrow?!

 

[ronpaulitician]

My guess is that Paul will need to steal almost all of McCain's independent votes to come in this strong, and I fear that Obama will draw many NH independent votes away from Paul.

From my wife:

"i think my sister thinks he has no chance so she is looking more towards obama"

I hope that either Obama crushes Clinton so badly that she drops out, or she ends up crushing Obama so badly that when the time comes for us to vote here in California, he won't be deemed to "stand a chance".

 

[Laja]

My guess is that Paul will need to steal almost all of McCain's independent votes to come in this strong, and I fear that Obama will draw many NH independent votes away from Paul.

From my wife:

"i think my sister thinks he has no chance so she is looking more towards obama"

I hope that either Obama crushes Clinton so badly that she drops out, or she ends up crushing Obama so badly that when the time comes for us to vote here in California, he won't be deemed to "stand a chance".

Tell your sister that she might as well not vote at all than vote for O-bomb-a. The only change he's going to bring to the Presidency is an African American president with the same agenda as the bush administration.

A vote for Ron Paul, whether he wins or not, is a message to the government, Old Media, and the people of America just how many of us are sick and tired of the direction we're being railroaded into. It says "We're mad as hell and we're not going to take it anymore." Anything less is a disservice to the great country this once was.

 

[ronpaulitician]

Tell your sister that she might as well not vote at all than vote for O-bomb-a.

I will, though that won't quell my fear that Obama will draw too many independents away from Paul to win the GOP ticket.

 

[drpiotrowski]

"The Democrat results showed Obama, a known smoker, would win easily with 46 percent of the votes"

How terribly irrelevant... Journalists today.

 

[jgmaynard]

I've been saying for months (and many NH pundits have said as well) that Obama and Paul were getting most of the Inds. McCon has gotten some since then, but I don't really see a lot of Obama/Paul flipping here. There ARE some people going from Hill to Obama, but I predicted that as well. All hail me.

JM

 

[DRV45N05]

The thing is, though, that McCain and Romney are whooping with the independent vote in the Republican polls in New Hampshire. Maybe the polls are wrong, but we'll see. They did underestimate Paul's support among indies in Iowa.

I'll be satisfied with 3rd place in New Hampshire.