In order for Rand to make the main debate stage, Carson would need to completely collapse to the point of polling behind Rand in Iowa, coupled with Paul getting a sudden bump there of about 4-5%. New Hampshire looks a bit less promising because of Kasich and Krispy Kreme, and the national numbers just aren't there. It looks like Paul will get bounced down to the under-card debate on Fox Business, which is a bit less of a blow compared to what it would have been on the CNN debate stage given that it would have made Fiorina and Kasich look better than him, but it still sucks.
I'm hoping for a sudden burst of IQ in the polling pool in the next 2 weeks, but given the manipulative sampling being used, it would be tantamount to an act of God.