News from Iowa

[Dave]

I'm making calls to determine what the circulations are for the different papers.

What I am thinking about is whether there is more advantage to certain communities over other communities.

In other words, is there a way to know which geographic areas have stronger impact in their primary, or not?

Also, if I understand the caucus system correctly, it seems rather....slimey. Sort of a way for those "in favor" insiders within the state party to get wined and dined in exchange for their vote. A microcosm of congress, maybe?

If that is in fact the case, perhaps money would be better spent in other primary states?

I don't know how to decide which communities are more important than others. If you're trying to turn out GOP members, there are more of them west of Des Moines than east of Des Moines. The homes of the 3 state universities (Ames, Iowa City, and Cedar Falls) are the most liberal. I'm sure they'd appreciate Dr. Paul's stand on Iraq but I don't know if they'd go for much else. I don't know what else to offer so maybe it's not so important as just getting the message out.

I think the Ames straw poll in August fits your definition of 'slimey' but the caucus in January is no more slippery than any other political contest and by-passing Iowa has historically been a losing strategy. The party insiders only get one vote on caucus night, just like everyone else who shows up. The good thing about the caucus system is that many people go there undecided and there's an opportunity before the vote for people to give a short speech in support of their favorite. This can sway people at the last minute.

 

[Cyclone177]

I am an alum from Iowa State, now living in Omaha. I would be willing to do stuff on the weekend to help promote Ron. I am in total agreement that Iowa could make or break his campaign. I saw a post on Cyclone Conservative blog about some dinner last night where there were over 80 representatives for Repub's, but none for Dr. Paul. We need to make a huge effort to get things going in Iowa. People in Iowa are not stupid, and are pissed about this war. That is going to be the issue in this campaign, and with all the farmer's I know being Repub, they aren't satisfied with the slate of big names up there now.

 

[specsaregood]

//

 

[Pedrique]

I was under the impression that Bill Clinton skipped Iowa in 92 and he still won - that's the reason his former staffer was encouraging Hillary to do the same.

 

[Dave]

I was under the impression that Bill Clinton skipped Iowa in 92 and he still won - that's the reason his former staffer was encouraging Hillary to do the same.

EVERYONE skipped Iowa in 92 because Iowa senator Tom Harkin ran for president, making the Iowa caucus almost meaningless. Harkin won with 76% while the others had 4% or less.

The fact that staffers are even contemplating having Hillary skip Iowa tells me they're scared about where she's going to finish here. Remember - it doesn't matter where you finish in Iowa, it's where you finish relative to expectations.

 

[DjLoTi]

I think Ron Paul would go over *great* with the farmers of Iowa and I wouldn't recommend leaving the college-aged 'liberal' out of our efforts. Think about it. Many 'liberals' are crossing over to repub just to vote for this guy

Also, a college-aged youth is more likely to be informed of the internet functions and features, especially including the content. I propose rallying on both sides of the isle.

 

[MsDoodahs]

Interesting. Print "ads" are intended to grab those who aren't internet savvy (because we have the net saturated already).

So newspaper advertising should be away from college towns...

or at least that is what I am thinking.

Your thoughts, people?

 

[Scribbler de Stebbing]

Interesting. Print "ads" are intended to grab those who aren't internet savvy (because we have the net saturated already).

So newspaper advertising should be away from college towns...

Then maybe shoot for small-town papers, or farm radio? There are weekly, local publications that have cheaper rates.

But what is the message for the ads? I would include a way for voters interested in Ron Paul to contact someone local in order to assist with campaigning and to get bumper stickers/lawn signs. "Free bumper sticker by calling 222-555-1234." When they call, see if they'd be willing to volunteer at the Straw Poll.

 

[Pedrique]

EVERYONE skipped Iowa in 92 because Iowa senator Tom Harkin ran for president, making the Iowa caucus almost meaningless. Harkin won with 76% while the others had 4% or less.

The fact that staffers are even contemplating having Hillary skip Iowa tells me they're scared about where she's going to finish here. Remember - it doesn't matter where you finish in Iowa, it's where you finish relative to expectations.

Gotcha. Thanks!

 

[JosephTheLibertarian]

That's good... there's still hope if we don't win Iowa, but gosh would it be great to win Iowa!

 

[sidsquidrick]

Convoy?

Hey, do we want to make a convoy?

We can rent a 7 passenger van in Dallas for 60 bucks a day, less with my military discount. At 15 MPG, we could get there and back with a $400 dollar bill. We could leave on the 10th and return on the 12th. For $100 a head we shouldn't have any problems getting there. At $100 a night, we can use two rooms per van load. You can put up to four adults in every room.

I am used to sleeping in tents with a lot of people (Iraq for 14mos) so it wouldn't bother me. Anyone else like the idea?

If we could get several convoys going from all over the country we may get an even better rental rate from a national car rental company and the hotel where we can all meet.

Lets talk seriously about this.

Sid

 

[JosephTheLibertarian]

..I'm from NJ, it sounds like a good idea. Where are you from?

 

[Dave]

That's good... there's still hope if we don't win Iowa, but gosh would it be great to win Iowa!

Winning would be nice but there's TONS of hope if we don't win - as long as we beat expectations. Imagine - if the caucus were today and Romney won with 25% but Dr. Paul finished in 2nd with 24% then Romney would be considered a loser and Paul would get a huge victory. It's ALL relative to expectations.

I don't think anyone has ever been nominted without finishing in the top 3 in Iowa. Our Iowa goal needs to be this:

1. Finish in the top 3
2. Finish ahead of what the polls say going into the caucus.

 

[Dave]

How would the Hemp legalization and anti-drug war positions go over in Iowa? I imagine the Hemp bill would be popular. But my understanding is that Iowa has been ravaged by Crystal Meth production and addicts in recent years -- How does that translate to drug-war sentiment? Any thoughts?

I don't think either of these positions are vote-getters in Iowa. Iowa farmers make their money on corn and soybeans - their skills and equipment revolve around these crops. Farmers here aren't demanding new things to plant - especially right now when corn and soybean prices are VERY high due to all the ethanol and biodiesel demand.

Outside of some potheads I just don't think there's much interest here in legalizing drugs - particularly in the GOP.

Some crossover would be nice but it's never really happened much here in the past despite there always being talk about it. Iowan's just don't cross over very much. It's silly to think that democrats and liberals are the key to winning the GOP nomination. Ron Paul is not a democrat or a liberal (by today's definition) - he's a conservative.

 

[JosephTheLibertarian]

Well, wouldnt' marijuana legalization give them something to plant? LOL

 

[angelatc]

Industrial hemp isn't pot and according to Wikipedia hemp was Canada's most profitable crop in 2006.

 

[JosephTheLibertarian]

Both sound good to me...

 

[axiomata]

Some of the polling I have seen from Iowa is very encouraging for Ron Paul.

i.e.,

2. Do you see President George W. Bush as a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan? (Republicans Only)
Yes 5%
No 79%
Undecided 16%

3. How important is it for the Republican presidential candidate to be a conservative Republican in the mode of Ronald Reagan, very important, somewhat important, not very important, not important, undecided? (Republicans Only)
Very Important 42%
Somewhat Important 19%
Not Very Important 11%
Not Important 12%
Undecided 16%

5. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)
Yes 54%
No 37%
Undecided 9%

More than 50% favor withdrawal of all US military from Iraq in just 6 months. None of the other candidates share that opinion. Furthermore, just about everyone polled recognize that Bush and the neocons are not heirs to the Reagan legacy and a high percentage feel a Reagan-like president is important.

However, all is not good news:

1. If the 2008 Republican presidential caucus were held today between Sam Brownback, Jim Gilmore, Newt Gingrich, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, Tom Tancredo, Fred Thompson, and Tommy Thompson for whom would you vote? (Republicans Only; Names Rotated)
Mitt Romney 20%
Rudy Giuliani 18%
John McCain 16%
Fred Thompson 10%
Tommy Thompson 7%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Sam Brownback 2%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Ron Paul 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Jim Gilmore 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Undecided 12%

4. Are you satisfied with the current field of announced Republican presidential candidates for 2008? (Republicans only)
Yes 29%
No 51%
Undecided 20%

I'm guessing from the looks of those two polls, serious name and issue recognition work is needed from the Paul campaign. There's definitely room for growth the fill the void. Anything anyone can do in Iowa will significantly help Paul's campaign.

 

[JosephTheLibertarian]

They either don't know him or don't know his positions. It's ok. This is the old poll?

 

[MsDoodahs]

Dave, from your take on the feelings of voters in the state, do you think that RP's stance on the war would be the best way to attract readers to "ads?"

Any other issues where RP's stand might resonate?

Taxes?

Gun control?