Winston
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Some folks I know in Austin, TX are discussing ways we can help you guys in Iowa. Get the ball rolling, reinforcements coming soon!
News from Iowa
- Thread starter Dave
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Some folks I know in Austin, TX are discussing ways we can help you guys in Iowa. Get the ball rolling, reinforcements coming soon!
reeferseed
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I will go anywhere
I am from Austin, eager to devote my life full-time to Dr. Paul... I had been thinking of moving to New Hampshire since this election cycle may be New Hampshire's most influential primary ever... Maybe Iowa instead, who knows? I am willing to go anywhere that I can do the most good for Dr. Paul's movement!
I am from Austin, eager to devote my life full-time to Dr. Paul... I had been thinking of moving to New Hampshire since this election cycle may be New Hampshire's most influential primary ever... Maybe Iowa instead, who knows? I am willing to go anywhere that I can do the most good for Dr. Paul's movement!
Dave
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Iowa poll interpretation
The Strategic Vision poll that shows Dr. Paul at 2% is getting some play in the local media. They focus on the 'big 3' plus Fred Thompson and don't mention Ron Paul. Here's a summary:
Mitt Romney 20%
Rudy Giuliani 18%
John McCain 16%
Fred Thompson 10%
Tommy Thompson 7%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Sam Brownback 2%
Ron Paul 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Jim Gilmore 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Unsure 12%
Poll interpretation is dangerous and 2% is within the margin of error, but I think this poll is reason for optimism. This is the first Iowa poll that Dr. Paul has registered in whatsoever. It's also the first poll that was taken entirely after the SC debate.
Hunter, Gilmore, and Hagel seem non-existent here so they are rightly at 1%. Given the amount of time and money being spent here by Tancredo and Brownback, I think it's encouraging that they are no higher than Dr. Paul.
T. Thompson and Gingrich have been here more than Dr. Paul.
The Strategic Vision poll that shows Dr. Paul at 2% is getting some play in the local media. They focus on the 'big 3' plus Fred Thompson and don't mention Ron Paul. Here's a summary:
Mitt Romney 20%
Rudy Giuliani 18%
John McCain 16%
Fred Thompson 10%
Tommy Thompson 7%
Newt Gingrich 5%
Mike Huckabee 3%
Tom Tancredo 2%
Sam Brownback 2%
Ron Paul 2%
Duncan Hunter 1%
Jim Gilmore 1%
Chuck Hagel 1%
Unsure 12%
Poll interpretation is dangerous and 2% is within the margin of error, but I think this poll is reason for optimism. This is the first Iowa poll that Dr. Paul has registered in whatsoever. It's also the first poll that was taken entirely after the SC debate.
Hunter, Gilmore, and Hagel seem non-existent here so they are rightly at 1%. Given the amount of time and money being spent here by Tancredo and Brownback, I think it's encouraging that they are no higher than Dr. Paul.
T. Thompson and Gingrich have been here more than Dr. Paul.
Iowa went Democrat largely in 2006 Iraq war being a major factor. the status quo stay the coarse lost big time in Iowa.
the last straw poll also took the pulse on the war situation. it was unfavorable against the war in Iraq.
Fred Thompson is a mystery factor and imo another Bush he works for media and a member of CFR.
all but Ron Paul support the status quo.
ron paul kicks ass on the cyclone conservative poll but that could be out of stater voters. consistently getting 400+ votes blowing the rest ouf of the water.
subsidies for farmers may help or hurt its a factor in Iowa.
I feel Iowa is Ron Pauls to lose. I dont see Iowa going for any of the other pro Iraq war neocon candidates. Fred Thompson may have support out of ignorance he will turn out to be another Bush.
the last straw poll also took the pulse on the war situation. it was unfavorable against the war in Iraq.
Fred Thompson is a mystery factor and imo another Bush he works for media and a member of CFR.
all but Ron Paul support the status quo.
ron paul kicks ass on the cyclone conservative poll but that could be out of stater voters. consistently getting 400+ votes blowing the rest ouf of the water.
subsidies for farmers may help or hurt its a factor in Iowa.
I feel Iowa is Ron Pauls to lose. I dont see Iowa going for any of the other pro Iraq war neocon candidates. Fred Thompson may have support out of ignorance he will turn out to be another Bush.
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lonestarguy
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Dave
Dave, Do you think you would be able to head up Iowa as RP's campaign chief there? Are you willing to consider or would you prefer to be a liasion to another. How do you see yourself there? You have insight into your great state. What say you sir?
Dave, Do you think you would be able to head up Iowa as RP's campaign chief there? Are you willing to consider or would you prefer to be a liasion to another. How do you see yourself there? You have insight into your great state. What say you sir?
Dave
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I'm hopeful there's a better candidate. There's a cadre of extremely well-connected people who are experienced in running Iowa presidential campaigns. They tend to be party bosses, former elected officials, or professional campaign managers who more or less do this for a living.
I run a business and have young kids. I'm willing to focus less on the business but not my kids. I have a lot to offer the campaign but we need someone who has experience with running a campaign and is well-connected. Check out this link to get an idea of the kind of people working on the various candidates' Iowa campaigns.
http://www.gwu.edu/~action/2008/cands08txt.html
The size of the Iowa organizations for even the second-tier candidates is amazing.
Scribbler de Stebbing
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I live in Minnesota and am willing to coordinate Minnesotans to get to Iowa for the Straw Poll and at any other time we're needed. I obviously can't head up Iowa and would encourage Dave to take up at least the temporary mantle. Dave, you can probably find someone willing to take it on once you get going.
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Dave
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Article about Iowa Straw Poll
Here's an enlightening writeup to help you understand the Iowa Straw Poll:
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=B07D8ED7-3048-5C12-001EC89C29D67FCF
The Ron Paul campaign isn't centered on flash and spending lots of money on frivolity. I'm anxious to see his strategy regarding this event. For all its flaws, I have to agree that it is kind of a pre-caucus.
Here's an enlightening writeup to help you understand the Iowa Straw Poll:
http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=B07D8ED7-3048-5C12-001EC89C29D67FCF
The Ron Paul campaign isn't centered on flash and spending lots of money on frivolity. I'm anxious to see his strategy regarding this event. For all its flaws, I have to agree that it is kind of a pre-caucus.
lonestarguy
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Strategic Vision Iowa Poll: GOPers Favor Complete Withdrawal
Strategic Vision, a polling firm, polled likely Republican voters in Iowa, and they found that 54% of Iowa Republicans want us out of Iraq in six months. Now, what Republican do you think those people would likely vote for?
Please pass this post up the campaign!
Article follows below.
Strategic Vision: Most Iowa GOPers Favor Complete Withdrawal
by Jonathan Singer, Tue May 22, 2007 at 09:56:27 PM EST
The latest survey of likely Iowa caucus-goers from Republican polling outfit Strategic Vision was released this afternoon and the results may just shock you, because they certainly shocked me. Take a look at the fifth question (600 GOP LVs, May 18-20, MoE +/- 4%):
Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)
Yes 54 percent
No 37 percent
Undecided 9 percent
Certainly there's an extent to which these results are reflective of the fact that Strategic Vision did not give respondents a chance to choose other alternatives, like withdrawing some troops over this time period or aiming to withdraw all American forces in six months or a year or two years. Still, the results are fairly clear: A fairly substantial majority of likely Iowa caucus-goers favor the full withdrawal of American military forces from Iraq within the next six months. This majority is safe from the margin of error and, to repeat, these numbers come from a Republican poll.
For those interested, the poll also showed that likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers favor this tough line on Iraq by an even wider margin, 81 percent to 5 percent. This would certainly seem to upend the notion that a Democratic presidential candidate would have something to lose by going out too far on the issue of Iraq.
And because I'm sure you're at least wondering...
If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were held today between, Joeseph Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (Democrats Only; Names Rotated)
John Edwards 29 percent
Barack Obama 24 percent
Hillary Clinton 16 percent
Bill Richardson 9 percent
Joe Biden 3 percent
Chris Dodd 2 percent
Dennis Kucinich 1 percent
Undecided 16 percent
Strategic Vision, a polling firm, polled likely Republican voters in Iowa, and they found that 54% of Iowa Republicans want us out of Iraq in six months. Now, what Republican do you think those people would likely vote for?
Please pass this post up the campaign!
Article follows below.
Strategic Vision: Most Iowa GOPers Favor Complete Withdrawal
by Jonathan Singer, Tue May 22, 2007 at 09:56:27 PM EST
The latest survey of likely Iowa caucus-goers from Republican polling outfit Strategic Vision was released this afternoon and the results may just shock you, because they certainly shocked me. Take a look at the fifth question (600 GOP LVs, May 18-20, MoE +/- 4%):
Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)
Yes 54 percent
No 37 percent
Undecided 9 percent
Certainly there's an extent to which these results are reflective of the fact that Strategic Vision did not give respondents a chance to choose other alternatives, like withdrawing some troops over this time period or aiming to withdraw all American forces in six months or a year or two years. Still, the results are fairly clear: A fairly substantial majority of likely Iowa caucus-goers favor the full withdrawal of American military forces from Iraq within the next six months. This majority is safe from the margin of error and, to repeat, these numbers come from a Republican poll.
For those interested, the poll also showed that likely Iowa Democratic caucus-goers favor this tough line on Iraq by an even wider margin, 81 percent to 5 percent. This would certainly seem to upend the notion that a Democratic presidential candidate would have something to lose by going out too far on the issue of Iraq.
And because I'm sure you're at least wondering...
If the 2008 Democratic presidential caucus were held today between, Joeseph Biden, Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, Barack Obama, and Bill Richardson, for whom would you vote? (Democrats Only; Names Rotated)
John Edwards 29 percent
Barack Obama 24 percent
Hillary Clinton 16 percent
Bill Richardson 9 percent
Joe Biden 3 percent
Chris Dodd 2 percent
Dennis Kucinich 1 percent
Undecided 16 percent
Just as an aside, if the states keep moving up primaries, we're gonna be having primaries before the previous president is elected.
lonestarguy
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Dave
Dave, I think it would be interesting to hear even more about what you know. I hope to pick your brain here. In the years past have you ever worked for a campaign? If you did, can you kinda break it up for us, say, what did your particular campaign do in the months and weeks in the run-up to the Ames summertime Strawpoll?
Then, after the Strawpoll in Ames, what did the campaign have you do in the run-up to the actual Iowa caucus in January?
Can you explain how the Iowa caucus operates? And tell us what you see as keys to the caucus.
What, if any, stand-out as lessons learned? And anything else you think we should know?
Thanks so much.....
Dave, I think it would be interesting to hear even more about what you know. I hope to pick your brain here. In the years past have you ever worked for a campaign? If you did, can you kinda break it up for us, say, what did your particular campaign do in the months and weeks in the run-up to the Ames summertime Strawpoll?
Then, after the Strawpoll in Ames, what did the campaign have you do in the run-up to the actual Iowa caucus in January?
Can you explain how the Iowa caucus operates? And tell us what you see as keys to the caucus.
What, if any, stand-out as lessons learned? And anything else you think we should know?
Thanks so much.....
Dave
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How to Reach Iowans
The 5/23 Des Moines Register has results from an interesting poll about where Iowans get their info about candidates for president and their involvement in the campaigns.
Here's the % of Iowa caucusgoers who say they have done the following or are likely to do so. Read the list and imagine your roles, keeping an eye toward the '% reach' to prioritize:
94% Watch candidate debates
93% Read newspaper stories about the campaigns
87% Watch or listen to candidates' ads on tv/radio
86% Read newspaper opinion pieces or letters to editor
83% Watch mainstream political news shows (e.g. Meet the Press, Face the Nation)
79% Go to candidate events
69% Give money to campaigns
58% Visit candidate web sites
58% Volunteer to work for a campaign
56% Search the internet for candidates' stands on issues
44% Read onling forums/blogs written by experts
41% Watch satirical shows with fake newscasts (e.g. The Daily Show, SNL)
22% Read online forums/blogs written by non-experts
19% Contribute to online forums or comment on blogs
11% Post pictures/videos of political events on the internet
Draw your own conclusions but it seems to me that laypeople working the internet with postings can only hope to affect up to 22% of Iowans' views.
Dr. Paul is doing his part in the debates and working top-down to get into the media. We need to find ways to get into the Iowa newspapers through the columnists and letters to the editor (preferably written by local Iowans themselves). It would seem to help for Dr. Paul to spend more time in Iowa to host 'candidate events' but I leave those decisions to HQ where they have the whole picture.
It seems that Iowans will go to the internet for information but are most likely to head to the candidates' web sites rather than blogs/forums. This suggests that the Ron Paul 2008 website is key. Maybe those of us with internet skills (not me) can donate their talents to HQ to make the web site the best it can be, whatever that means. The rest of us need to donate $ (I do) to help facilitate this (and the other campaign efforts).
I think an important conclusion to draw from this is that we all need to be spending as much if not more of our time OFF the internet building old-fashioned bottom-up grassroots support.
The 5/23 Des Moines Register has results from an interesting poll about where Iowans get their info about candidates for president and their involvement in the campaigns.
Here's the % of Iowa caucusgoers who say they have done the following or are likely to do so. Read the list and imagine your roles, keeping an eye toward the '% reach' to prioritize:
94% Watch candidate debates
93% Read newspaper stories about the campaigns
87% Watch or listen to candidates' ads on tv/radio
86% Read newspaper opinion pieces or letters to editor
83% Watch mainstream political news shows (e.g. Meet the Press, Face the Nation)
79% Go to candidate events
69% Give money to campaigns
58% Visit candidate web sites
58% Volunteer to work for a campaign
56% Search the internet for candidates' stands on issues
44% Read onling forums/blogs written by experts
41% Watch satirical shows with fake newscasts (e.g. The Daily Show, SNL)
22% Read online forums/blogs written by non-experts
19% Contribute to online forums or comment on blogs
11% Post pictures/videos of political events on the internet
Draw your own conclusions but it seems to me that laypeople working the internet with postings can only hope to affect up to 22% of Iowans' views.
Dr. Paul is doing his part in the debates and working top-down to get into the media. We need to find ways to get into the Iowa newspapers through the columnists and letters to the editor (preferably written by local Iowans themselves). It would seem to help for Dr. Paul to spend more time in Iowa to host 'candidate events' but I leave those decisions to HQ where they have the whole picture.
It seems that Iowans will go to the internet for information but are most likely to head to the candidates' web sites rather than blogs/forums. This suggests that the Ron Paul 2008 website is key. Maybe those of us with internet skills (not me) can donate their talents to HQ to make the web site the best it can be, whatever that means. The rest of us need to donate $ (I do) to help facilitate this (and the other campaign efforts).
I think an important conclusion to draw from this is that we all need to be spending as much if not more of our time OFF the internet building old-fashioned bottom-up grassroots support.
Dave
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My campaign experience is limited. Like most Ron Paul supporters, I've never been a big 'party' person. I've been a delegate to my county, district, and state conventions - I may describe that strange experience some other time.
I was a self-appointed 'precinct captain' (meaning I took responsibility for supporting him in my precinct) for Steve Forbes back in 2000 and chaufferred him around Des Moines a few times. A buddy of mine was involved with his Iowa campaign. I was my precinct's chairman on caucus night and delivered my precinct solidly for Forbes.
Here's a good short summary of the caucus process:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucus
I'll write more in future posts.
fact.
Dave
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DM Register mentions Paul
David Yepsen is the Des Moines Register's political honcho. He's kind of the voice of the caucuses and is very often interviewed by the national media for his take on what's happening in Iowa.
He had a piece on 5/25 where he handicaps the 2nd tier candidates, which to him means T. Thompson, Brownback, Huckabee, and Tancredo. Here's how he references Dr. Paul:
"Beneath the second tier is the bottom tier. California Congressman Duncan Hunter and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore have done little in Iowa.
Neither has Texas Congressman Ron Paul, but his good performances in debates might help him with libertarian Republicans. Unfortunately for him, there aren't that many libertarian, isolationist, anti-war Republicans who attend GOP caucuses in Iowa."
I was a bit steamed at first but I think Yepsen is stating facts. Ron Paul has only spent two days in Iowa while Brownback, Huckabee, Romney, Tancredo, and T. Thompson have all spent over 20 days here. Yepsen tips his hat to Dr. Paul's debate performances, which is nice. The only thing I think is clearly misunderstood is the 'isolationist' reference and I will send Yepsen a kind note discussing the difference between an isolationist and a non-interventionalist.
Anyone who wants to shine some light on candidates beyond the 'big 3' is a friend to our campaign so I think Yepsen is doing us a favor with articles like this and I DON'T think we should flame him. He's widely read in Iowa and by the national media so this mention of Ron Paul is positive.
Remember, too, that it doesn't matter how many people in Iowa agree with you - it's how many of them that you can TURN OUT on caucus night and allow you to beat EXPECTATIONS, which will build momentum for the later contests.
Here's the link if you want to read the whole article - I recommend it.
http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070524/OPINION01/705240368/1036
David Yepsen is the Des Moines Register's political honcho. He's kind of the voice of the caucuses and is very often interviewed by the national media for his take on what's happening in Iowa.
He had a piece on 5/25 where he handicaps the 2nd tier candidates, which to him means T. Thompson, Brownback, Huckabee, and Tancredo. Here's how he references Dr. Paul:
"Beneath the second tier is the bottom tier. California Congressman Duncan Hunter and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore have done little in Iowa.
Neither has Texas Congressman Ron Paul, but his good performances in debates might help him with libertarian Republicans. Unfortunately for him, there aren't that many libertarian, isolationist, anti-war Republicans who attend GOP caucuses in Iowa."
I was a bit steamed at first but I think Yepsen is stating facts. Ron Paul has only spent two days in Iowa while Brownback, Huckabee, Romney, Tancredo, and T. Thompson have all spent over 20 days here. Yepsen tips his hat to Dr. Paul's debate performances, which is nice. The only thing I think is clearly misunderstood is the 'isolationist' reference and I will send Yepsen a kind note discussing the difference between an isolationist and a non-interventionalist.
Anyone who wants to shine some light on candidates beyond the 'big 3' is a friend to our campaign so I think Yepsen is doing us a favor with articles like this and I DON'T think we should flame him. He's widely read in Iowa and by the national media so this mention of Ron Paul is positive.
Remember, too, that it doesn't matter how many people in Iowa agree with you - it's how many of them that you can TURN OUT on caucus night and allow you to beat EXPECTATIONS, which will build momentum for the later contests.
Here's the link if you want to read the whole article - I recommend it.
http://desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070524/OPINION01/705240368/1036
MsDoodahs
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Dave, from the stats you posted, it appears that 93% read newspaper articles about the candidates.
I'm trying to figure out what areas would be best to hit with ads for Dr. Paul, and how to configure those ads.
Off the top of my head, I'm thinking that the best method would be to target smaller communities instead of the larger ones.
What data should I be looking for to help figure this out?
Thanks!
I'm trying to figure out what areas would be best to hit with ads for Dr. Paul, and how to configure those ads.
Off the top of my head, I'm thinking that the best method would be to target smaller communities instead of the larger ones.
What data should I be looking for to help figure this out?
Thanks!
Dave
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The survey referenced articles but made no mention of ads (maybe the DMR didn't want to hear that people don't read the ads?) I'm sure people are less likely to read newspaper ads than newspaper articles but that doesn't mean ads are a bad idea.
I guess the info you would like to know is what the circulation is of all these various newspapers. Then you could compare the 'cost per view' of ads and use this to help prioritize.
Keep in mind that Iowa gets more conservative as you go from east to west. Lots more GOP in the west. Maybe more opportunity for crossovers in the east. Food for thought.
MsDoodahs
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That's why I'm thinking of configuration, too.
If I buy the "adspace" and use it to publish an article written by Dr. Paul himself, then it will not appear to be an "ad" at all.
Thoughts?
MsDoodahs
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I'm making calls to determine what the circulations are for the different papers.
What I am thinking about is whether there is more advantage to certain communities over other communities.
In other words, is there a way to know which geographic areas have stronger impact in their primary, or not?
Also, if I understand the caucus system correctly, it seems rather....slimey. Sort of a way for those "in favor" insiders within the state party to get wined and dined in exchange for their vote. A microcosm of congress, maybe?
If that is in fact the case, perhaps money would be better spent in other primary states?
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