New Hampshire: "3rd place or die" for Ron Paul

[jn0117]

Paul should have put a lot more time in Michigan,....without a dem primary....we should get the obama vote.

 

[crasster1]

Seriously.

If Ron Paul cannot at least eek out 3rd place in the most libertarian state in America - all hope is lost. The answer will come today on whether there is any chance left. If Ron Paul got 1st there is a chance that he could become the nominee. If he places second he has a remote chance. If he places 3rd he still has a very remote chance.

Michigan is going to go Romney because of his father.
Nevada is going to go Romeny because of Mormons.
South Carolina is going to go Huckabee with its high Fundie population.
Florida is going to go Huckabee or Giuliani.

Super Tuesday is going to one of those who do well in early states.

I completely agree!

But I won't give up until Super Tuesday. At least I can turn to my kids later and say "I tried". Without 3rd though tonight, I think we are Effed.

3rd could very well put Ron where they will start seeing him as top tier and giving him well deserved coverage.

I dream of 1st.... It can happen... It can.

The reality, I see a VERY VERY VERY tough battle for 3rd. Fred will drop after NH though..... This could give RP some more media.

 

[Menthol Patch]

Jason Oliver,

What really matters is SUPER TUESDAY!

Please stop being so negative.

 

[Trance Dance Master]

The only president in history to not win either the New Hampshire Primary or the Iowa Caucus is Bill Clinton in 1992. He took 2nd in NH and 3rd in Iowa.

It would be unprecedented if Ron Paul took 5th in Iowa and 3rd or worse in New Hampshire and went on to become President.

The early primary states are an important gauge of public opinion and voter sentiment. They set a precedent, the value of which far outweighs the number of convention delegates earned through the primary process itself.

Bill got 3% in IA. RP got 10%. That's more important than what place even.

 

[pilby]

i still think he can win this thing and i'm working my butt off to make sure he does.

but even if he doesn't, let's get as many RP delegates to the GOP brokered convention as we can. we can still have a MAJOR impact. in the 1880 GOP Convention, Sherman only had 93 delegates out of 682 and they ended up being the deciders.

 

[jrich4rpaul]

New Hampshire: "Paul's First or Die!"

 

[dspectre]

STOP IT WITH THE LOSER THREADS!

I'm sick of these weak minded people.

 

[GadsdenFlag]

Oh pipe down.

I didn't pay $2,300 to read this defeatist garbage. $2,300 has been well worth it for the amount of exposure the freedom movement has been getting. Hundreds of thousands of young intelligentsia are examining free market economics, Constitutional rule of law, sound currency, among other topics.

 

[wfd40]

With the current official campaign staff, yes.

and what's your solution big guy??

or are you content to pull the same card that that tool from LA uses??

 

[The New Revere]

Someone might want to tell this to Bill Clinton. Apparently he didn't pick up until Georgia when he first ran. He probably should have dropped out after NH.

 

[RedLightning]

while I'm hoping and praying for third or better, don't give up if we don't!!

 

[Caulfield]

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[webber53]

Depressing thread starter!

Seriously.

If Ron Paul cannot at least eek out 3rd place in the most libertarian state in America - all hope is lost. The answer will come today on whether there is any chance left. If Ron Paul got 1st there is a chance that he could become the nominee. If he places second he has a remote chance. If he places 3rd he still has a very remote chance.

Michigan is going to go Romney because of his father.
Nevada is going to go Romeny because of Mormons.
South Carolina is going to go Huckabee with its high Fundie population.
Florida is going to go Huckabee or Giuliani.

Super Tuesday is going to one of those who do well in early states.

What the heck are you doing on these forums if you have the inside scoop
on the primaries? Send your resume to the major networks and MSM and
make some real dollars spreading your opinions because that my man
is all they are. Opinions! Your constant doom and gloom is detrimental for newbies here.
Go outside and take a walk. Hand out some slim jims for Ron Paul.
Damn you are depressing!

 

[thisisgiparti]

sounds realistic to me. convention is worse than caucuses, so that is a remote possibility at best for a long shot candidate. you have to prove the media wrong or they will continue calling him second tier. it's not in their interest to fawn all over Ron Paul, so you can't blame them for ignoring him. you just have to foil them with grassroots and quickly before the campaign becomes increasingly irrelevant and it's too late.

 

[WilliamC]

Enjoy yourself....

Call Huckabee's campaign 501-324-2008.

"Hi, I like a lot of what I've been hearing from Governor Huckabee lately about limited government, eliminating the IRS, and ending birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants. I was just wondering when we can expect him to endorse Ron Paul, since he's obviously now running on his platform?"

 

[westmich4paul]

Why is it that everyone here thinks that if Ron doesn't do well in the first 2 of 50 states we are done. We all knew getting the Republican nomination was a long shot especially with all the neo-con games they play. But if he doesn't get the Republican nomination it surprises me that so many people on here hate the thought of anyone even mentioning the fact that he could still run third party.

Are all Ron Paul Republicans soo entrenched in their party that if he does run on a third party ticket they would abandon him? He has never ruled out completely the fact that he would possibly run on a third party ticket but it seems at least IMO that even mentioning it on the boards is like some anti- American rhetoric.

It is not as if he was given at least a fair shot by this party and if he was then I could understand some calling for withdrawl if a non Republican run is what he decides to do. But lets be real the Republican establishment has been trying to bury him from the very beginning and this is why he is not doing better. They would rather prop up a war taughting liberal like gouliani or huckabee than let a true representative of their party have an honest shot?

I for one was mildly and pleasantly surprised to see the NH GOP pull their support for their candidate but the national GOP should have pulled every candidate out of it as well IMO.

So after ranting my opinions on this matter my question is this how far along would he have to go to announce a third party run if thats what he chooses to do? Could he do it after the Republican convention? I would assume that he is going to want as much media exposure as possible so if he does decide to pull away from the Republican party he will have name recognition, but is there a time limit on when you can announce?

I for one would vote for Ron no matter what party he is in , he is that important to this country's welfare in my opinion. I switched from being a Democrat for Ron Paul and if anyone would have told me a year and a half ago that would happen I would have told you that was not going to happen. Ron Paul 2008!

 

[Oneironaut07]

According to the exit polls 1/3 of the republican voters thus far were registered independents
assuming this holds to be true, and that ron paul's independent support % mirrors what it was in Iowa that accounts for 9.5% of the vote (roughly)
if you add in the GOP base tracked by most landline polls average for Ron Paul in NH (8.2%)
Ron Paul is projected, through this highly speculative line of reasoning, to win 17.7% of the New Hampshire Republican Constituency which should be good enough for 3rd place
I estimate the margin of error on this prediction to be +/- 6% of the vote
so ron paul should end up with anywhere between 11.7% and 23.7% of the vote, though i suspect that he will fall on the lower end of this 12 point range and secure a 3rd place finish (hopefully)
that is if fred "pitbull" thompson doesn't shock us all and get all of the senile voters' support lol

 

[free.alive]

D o u c h e b a g

 

[free.alive]

I've never actually written that before. What a strange thing to call someone.

 

[Liberty]

I didn't pay $2,300 to read this defeatist garbage. $2,300 has been well worth it for the amount of exposure the freedom movement has been getting. Hundreds of thousands of young intelligentsia are examining free market economics, Constitutional rule of law, sound currency, among other topics.

Excellent post.