Except WA is a caucus and OH is a primary. Caucus voting does represent what average voters think or want. It represents what caucus goers think and want. If ME were a primary, Paul would have been a distant 3rd. The same for WA.
The point wasn't that it's a direct corollary, obviously it's not (break down the demographic types and that becomes painfully obvious even voting style totally aside)
the point is that polls are questionable at best and "we" (the members of this forum) spend far too much time giving them credit they are undo.
Nate Silver mentioned how
on average the combined caucus/primary polls for this cycle have been off by 12 points,
12 that is a huge margin in a race like this.
For those who look at the demographics of a state more than the polls Santo having support is no surprise, the thing is Ohio is a very divided place in quite a number of ways (I've lived in more than one city there and have relatives all over the state, I know of which I speak) there are reasons why it's a
battleground state and no one is a lock for it (even in the straw poll) at this point.
Since my earlier tongue in cheek method seems to have been inadequate to the task let me rephrase my point in a blunt manner.
Polls are worthless, they are what they are, spend time doing something to improve the situation they try to represent not talking about the numbers.
(or to put it another way for those who'd argue about the validity of polling, the point I'm making is that no matter what results the polls show looking at the poll
doesn't change anything so spend your time on taking actions that will
improve the situation that way things are better no matter where they started. And frankly that's a whole lot more useful than talking about the latest flex in the highly dubious numbers game of polling -- By the way, I've done some official national polling in my day, I've seen it from the inside, and haven't trusted it much since)
) getting set up with that and/or ronpaulcountry.com all fall into the free category as well. Most people in the grassroots don't have a lot of cash (myself included) but we can still totally make a positive impact on this race.
I did convince my dad off of newt gingrich(after hermann dropped out), though, so he is doing as much as he can in VA, but Norfolk is very democrat-heavy and less inclined to go blue republican. my friends at WRC are obamabots... i can't get through to them, they try to get me to see his good work, and i have to refute and debunk everything nicely... and they still support him.
