National support is about 2.5x greater than 2008 so far? And close to 2x greater in Iowa?

[RileyE104]

According to Wikipedia:
Ron Paul - 1,210,022 (5.71%)
^ that is Ron's total vote count from 2008.

If the latest Gallup poll (has Paul at 14% nationally) is accurate, that means about 3,000,000 people are already on our side this early in the game?

I think that's good.

McCain won the primary with about 10,000,000 votes though, so we've got a good way to go from here on out.


ALSO, in Iowa:
Paul's results from 2008 via Wikipedia - 11,817 = 9.96%

If he's really polling 16%, that means we can expect that about 19,000 people in Iowa are supporting him so far? If accurate, that's GREAT news - considering how far the Iowa caucus still is. Compared to the 2008 caucus, RP is definitely in 3rd so far. I think by the time Iowa comes along, if momentum has built, we can definitely win or come in 2nd at Iowa. In 2008, Fred Thompson came in 3rd with 15,904 votes (or 13.4%) and McCain came in a close 4th with 15,559 votes (or 13.11%) - we're already ahead of that if the latest polling is accurate. In 2nd was Romney with about 30,000 votes (or 25.23%), which was just 10,000 votes behind Huckabee, who won with about 41,000 (or 34.41%).

If Paul can get say 35,000 people or more to vote for him in the 2012 caucus, I think we can definitely win or come in 2nd.


Thoughts?

 

[Aratus]

if we insted of mitt are drawing in huck's 2oo8 army...

 

[Agorism]

Ya but if we get second at Ames, what's the chance we can win the caucus.

So the Straw poll is a battleground more suited to Ron Paul supporters as it's more of a grass roots event. I think Ames is the ideal early competition for us although idk if the campaign has dumped enough resources into it. I hope they have.

 

[Aratus]

^ a close fractional second in a race with a gap between the top two + lower tier?

if rick + mitt have a hairpulling contest as both go bald, lets
hope ron paul debates michele bachmann pleasantly and well

 

[truthdivides]

Ya but if we get second at Ames, what's the chance we can win the caucus.

Pretty good still. Someone did an analysis of Straw Poll/Caucus placing here this week and the only people to win the caucus were people to get 1st or 2nd in the straw poll.

EDIT: The only people over the past 5 straw poll/caucus cycles.

 

[RileyE104]

if we insted of mitt are drawing in huck's 2oo8 army...

We will see...

The only thing I don't understand is how McCain, who received less than 4,000 votes more than RP in Iowa, went on to win New Hampshire with almost 70,000 more votes than Ron, who only got about 18,500 votes?? I suppose NH being a primary state had something to do with that?

 

[sailingaway]

Pretty good still. Someone did an analysis of Straw Poll/Caucus placing here this week and the only people to win the caucus were people to get 1st or 2nd in the straw poll.

EDIT: The only people over the past 5 straw poll/caucus cycles.

Huckabee took a DISTANT second at Ames but won the caucus. It just caught people's attention that he 'could' win.

 

[sailingaway]

We will see...

The only thing I don't understand is how McCain, who received less than 4,000 votes more than RP in Iowa, went on to win New Hampshire with almost 70,000 more votes than Ron, who only got about 18,500 votes?? I suppose NH being a primary state had something to do with that?

Fox knocking Ron out of the debate right before, as if he hadn't a chance, and that newsletter smear job launched at midnight before the last day before voting had a lot to do with it. Stay nimble. There is more of that to come, I am sure.

 

[RileyE104]

Ya but if we get second at Ames, what's the chance we can win the caucus.

So the Straw poll is a battleground more suited to Ron Paul supporters as it's more of a grass roots event. I think Ames is the ideal early competition for us although idk if the campaign has dumped enough resources into it. I hope they have.

Romney won the Ames poll but came in 2nd during the caucus... Huck came in 2nd at Ames but won the caucus.

I believe either first or second will be great for the campaign. Of course we would all prefer first, but I'm just saying...

 

[RileyE104]

Fox knocking Ron out of the debate right before, as if he hadn't a chance, and that newsletter smear job launched at midnight before the last day before voting had a lot to do with it. Stay nimble. There is more of that to come, I am sure.

Ah, the debate that RP was banned from. I remember now.
Good thing that type of shit wont happen this time around.

 

[MJU1983]

I've got a really good feeling about everything.

 

[Agorism]

Either way it will be a test of campaign strength.

 

[eleganz]

Remember guys, there are tons of people out there that like Ron's idea but don't trust the nation or the government to let anything 'good' like that ever happen.

Now that some of those people are turning around and seeing better numbers, more will hop on the wagon.