My sobering analysis on iowa, from Cedar Rapids

[PledgeForPaul]

In the end, getting the money to the campaign so they can run the media ads in all the states is the important thing - not whether folks sign up on sites like teaparty07.com or ronpaulpayday.com or your site (I haven't seen it - I'm assuming it allows people to register an intent to donate).

It is not to pledge to donate money, it is to pledge to Vote for Ron Paul in your state primary. It also sends an email (along with a couple sentences of pep talk) the day of your caucus as a reminder. I think nov5th and dec16th did well because individuals could bond together to know that their donation would not go in vain. The idea behind pledgeforpaul is similar... to bond people together so caucusing does not feel list a waste of time in the face of what the the main stream media says.

Also, I apologize for the pessimistic tone I've had in this thread. Working for a fixed income trading desk has perhaps given me an overly pessimistic outlook on attempts at forecasting anything. On Dec 15th I didn't think Dec16th would break the Nov5th record and that was certainly a nice surprise! Thanks for all the support. Go Ron Paul!

 

[Carole]

I'm not trying to be a downer - but I don't think a 2nd or 1st place finish in Iowa is realistic. I think anyone who has done hundreds of Iowa phone calls or gone door to door in Iowa will agree with this.

Of people I have called in Cedar Rapids, at least 75% know nothing of Ron Paul beyond name recognition (but do have impressions of other candidates). Of the 25% that have some impression his views (true or false impressions), very few are planning to caucus for him (but I'm working on that!).

The raw stat from my precinct is, I have talked to about 350 people on the phone (from a phone list of just under 1,000 that I have dialed) and have had a total of 3 (T-H-R-E-E) people say they will vote or will probably vote for Ron Paul. The only way my precinct will get 10 votes for him is if these phone conversations have made a difference on people who already had another candidate in mind. I think this is possible, but talking to other precinct captains I know very few will make it through their lists either (and some have not even started).

I think there are 5 ways RP could finish 3rd or above in Iowa:
1. The anecdotal readings I have gotten have been wrong (possible).
2. Cedar Rapids is significantly lagging other cities in the state (very possible).
3. There are above 5,000 Iowa caucus goers who are not in the phone book and only have a cell phone (not likely based on iowa meetup group size, iowans on ronpaulforms.com, etc).
4. The other precinct captains are working harder then I am (possible).
5. The Project: Iowa door to door campaign + letter writing campaign are going to really translate into an additional 5,000+ votes (possible).

With the race as wide as it is, I bet 3rd place will take only need 10,000 total votes.

Your mood is down right now, but tomorrow is another day.

You can do it. Thank you so much for all you ARE trying to do. Your effort is much appreciated and maybe you could just use a bit of moral support from us here.

Please do not give up. When it is over you will be happy that you tried your best and that is all anyone can expect. Personally, I feel you are a warrior in a just cause.

Thanks again. We love you.

 

[tsetsefly]

It is not to pledge to donate money, it is to pledge to Vote for Ron Paul in your state primary. It also sends an email reminder (along with a couple sentences of pep talk) the day of your caucus as a reminder. I think nov5th and dec16th did well because individuals could bond together to know that their donation would not go in vain. The idea behind pledgeforpaul is similar... to bond people together caucusing does not feel list a waste of time in the face of what the the main stream media says.

Also, I apologize for the pessimistic tone I've had in this thread. Working for a fixed income trading desk has perhaps given me an overly pessimistic outlook on attempts at forecasting anything. On Dec 15th I didn't think Dec16th would break the Nov5th record and that was certainly a nice surprise! Thanks for all the support. Go Ron Paul!

i just cant give my real name, so I gave my email adress and as name "sorry cant give my real name"...

 

[markpa]

Thanks to everyone who is making calls and doing the work on the ground in the early states!!

 

[pacelli]

Keep up the good work. Please keep up your spirits.

I am one that has become a supporter of late.

Your hard work in Iowa and the hard work of others in New Hampshire will set the stage for the rest of us.

First, a decent showing in Iowa.

A good showing in New Hampshire.

A better showing in South Carolina, Michigan, etc etc.

A fantastic showing out here in California.

Get that blimp out here! We have great weather (San Diego) and it would make a big splash!

Welcome to the forums, glad to have you here Don't feel shy about hopping into discussions!

 

[PledgeForPaul]

If 10% of the 350 vote, then Paul has 3 of 35 or 9%.

Is it possible to send brochures/DVDs or email articles/videos to the undecideds?


http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/

My routine has been calling from 630 until around 730pm (earlier or later depending on how demoralized I get), then doing lit drop offs to everyone who asked for literature (my phone script revolves around saying where I live and asking if I can stop by to drop off a pamphlet - I live within walking distance of everyone I'm calling). I offer my business card (which shows the well known employer I work at and hopefully makes me seem more like a normal Iowan), and ask if I can add them to my precinct email list (that I won't share with anyone but me). I keep a couple notes on each person (just issues they care about, who they are supporting, etc) and write a follow up email 2 or 3 days later. I also send the list of undecided voters (+ my notes) to a hand written letter volunteer on these forums (letter written entirely in pen) every night. So, yes - I am taking the undecideds I meet very seriously!

 

[PledgeForPaul]

i just cant give my real name, so I gave my email adress and as name "sorry cant give my real name"...

thats fine. Lots of people have done it.

 

[shane2]

Busting through the logjam...

I still get the dreaded "do you really think he has a chance?"

We all know most voters won't seriously consider any candidate that the polls and media have ranked so lowly as to be a poor contender. That is the single most formidable logjam restraining voters from more seriously considering Ron Paul. While that won't be an issue after IA & NH primaries, until then it is our greatest restraint on growth, and even more votes there, and greatest opportunity awaiting us if it's broken through.

This ad below was designed especially to help do so, and will be running shortly in the top dozen Iowa newspapers! (And, top half-dozen New Hampshire newspapers, too!) Details of which/when/where will be posted shortly at http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=63899

​

If you share our enthusiasm for the potential of this ad strategy we also invite you to consider running it yourself in smaller or community or shopper papers there, too. (Or, printed up as a handout, etc.) Just change up the bottom attribution line. Here's the pdf of it, that prints up better and is what newspapers want, shown in actual 5.75" x 6" size...
http://www.ki4u.com/pollsad.pdf

Enjoy!

- Shane

 

[hellah10]

My routine has been calling from 630 until around 730pm (earlier or later depending on how demoralized I get), then doing lit drop offs to everyone who asked for literature (my phone script revolves around saying where I live and asking if I can stop by to drop off a pamphlet - I live within walking distance of everyone I'm calling). I offer my business card (which shows the well known employer I work at and hopefully makes me seem more like a normal Iowan), and ask if I can add them to my precinct email list (that I won't share with anyone but me). I keep a couple notes on each person (just issues they care about, who they are supporting, etc) and write a follow up email 2 or 3 days later. I also send the list of undecided voters (+ my notes) to a hand written letter volunteer on these forums (letter written entirely in pen) every night. So, yes - I am taking the undecideds I meet very seriously!

your a fucking trooper... simply put... i wish i had the time that motivation to do what your doing for this campaign. Its guys like you that will make this work

i say again... thank you very much for your dedication .. i mean that in all sincerity
.

 

[aspiringconstitutionalist]

We all know most voters won't seriously consider any candidate that the polls and media have ranked so lowly as to be a poor contender. That is the single most formidable logjam restraining voters from more seriously considering Ron Paul. While that won't be an issue after IA & NH primaries, until then it is our greatest restraint on growth, and even more votes there, and greatest opportunity awaiting us if it's broken through.

This ad below was designed especially to help do so, and will be running shortly in the top dozen Iowa newspapers! (And, top half-dozen New Hampshire newspapers, too!) Details of which/when/where will be posted shortly at http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=63899

​

If you share our enthusiasm for the potential of this ad strategy we also invite you to consider running it yourself in smaller or community or shopper papers there, too. (Or, printed up as a handout, etc.) Just change up the bottom attribution line. Here's the pdf of it, that prints up better and is what newspapers want, shown in actual 5.75" x 6" size...
http://www.ki4u.com/pollsad.pdf

Enjoy!

- Shane

That's a great ad..

 

[PledgeForPaul]

your a fucking trooper... simply put... i wish i had the time that motivation to do what your doing for this campaign. Its guys like you that will make this work

i say again... thank you very much for your dedication .. i mean that in all sincerity
.

Really isn't that much. The hour of phone calling is hard, then the lit drop is painless and pretty quick. Email followup's are also very quick.

 

[adpierce]

yest its 2000...

Iowa is stuck in the middle of nowhere america and at this point its quite pathetic that they dont know who Paul is, seriously they are suppose to vote in a few all they need to do is look up on the internet to see who the candidates are...

I knew name recognition would be our downfall in Iowa those hicks are to dumb to look for information on their own and most probably are still on dial up...

I really think if we dont get top 3 in Iowa we might as well give up because the myth that he cant get elected will become reality when people see those results and people will not vote for him...

having said that , FUCK IOWA!

and wtf is the campaign doing in IOWA, I swear our biggest obstacle is an inept campaign not any opponent....

Screw that! I live in Iowa. Iowa ranks among the top 3 in education of all the states in our great union every single year. We're not a bunch of uneducated hicks. Ignorance is an ugly thing, and what you just said was as ignorant as hell. The campaign in Iowa is working hard... I'd wager the people there are working harder to get Ron Paul elected than you ever have. They live breathe and eat this stuff. They haven't the time or energy to watch all the youtube videos or post on this forum. I've worked with these men and women and they're doing the best they can possibly do. I'll probably go back and work with them this week since I've got some time off. Maybe you should write some letters or something rather than fly off and call Iowans stupid ignorant hicks.

Man this stuff pisses me off. I bet you name recognition for Ron Paul is as high here as anywhere in the nation, maybe better. It's just that most people don't care about politics... they think that the system is so fubared up that they don't even want to hear you talk about the person that if they just gave you the time of day they would realize is what they've been looking for all along. I know how easy this cold calling crap wears on you. People don't want to hear it, but the chance you might catch a few in the deluge of people who say no is worth it in these caucuses. Keep up the work. It's not fun most of the time but don't get discouraged we know Ron Paul being elected president would be one of the greatest things this nation has ever accomplished.

 

[LibertyEagle]

Screw that! I live in Iowa. Iowa ranks among the top 3 in education of all the states in our great union every single year. We're not a bunch of uneducated hicks. Ignorance is an ugly thing, and what you just said was as ignorant as hell. The campaign in Iowa is working hard... I'd wager the people there are working harder to get Ron Paul elected than you ever have. They live breathe and eat this stuff. They haven't the time or energy to watch all the youtube videos or post on this forum. I've worked with these men and women and they're doing the best they can possibly do. I'll probably go back and work with them this week since I've got some time off. Maybe you should write some letters or something rather than fly off and call Iowans stupid ignorant hicks.

Man this stuff pisses me off. I bet you name recognition for Ron Paul is as high here as anywhere in the nation, maybe better. It's just that most people don't care about politics... they think that the system is so fubared up that they don't even want to hear you talk about the person that if they just gave you the time of day they would realize is what they've been looking for all along. I know how easy this cold calling crap wears on you. People don't want to hear it, but the chance you might catch a few in the deluge of people who say no is worth it in these caucuses. Keep up the work. It's not fun most of the time but don't get discouraged we know Ron Paul being elected president would be one of the greatest things this nation has ever accomplished.

Keep your chin up and thank you for all you are doing. If we do well in Iowa, it surely will help us out a lot.

 

[LibertyEagle]

adpierce, have you heard anyone talking about the 30 minute infomercial, who weren't already RP supporters? If so, what did they think about it?

 

[adpierce]

Keep your chin up and thank you for all you are doing. If we do well in Iowa, it surely will help us out a lot.

Honestly my work here in Iowa is sporadic... I'm a student and when I haven't been in class or studying then working kept me away from being able to really campaign for RP. I'm going to try to log some more time with the campaign this week though. I'm sure they can use my help given the caucus is literally just a week away at the time of this post.

 

[Mastiff]

WTF is up with campaign...

State HQ wrote me back and said my precinct is covered. They're doing something.

 

[qwerty]

I'm not trying to be a downer - but I don't think a 2nd or 1st place finish in Iowa is realistic. I think anyone who has done hundreds of Iowa phone calls or gone door to door in Iowa will agree with this.

Of people I have called in Cedar Rapids, at least 75% know nothing of Ron Paul beyond name recognition (but do have impressions of other candidates). Of the 25% that have some impression his views (true or false impressions), very few are planning to caucus for him (but I'm working on that!).

The raw stat from my precinct is, I have talked to about 350 people on the phone (from a phone list of just under 1,000 that I have dialed) and have had a total of 3 (T-H-R-E-E) people say they will vote or will probably vote for Ron Paul. The only way my precinct will get 10 votes for him is if these phone conversations have made a difference on people who already had another candidate in mind. I think this is possible, but talking to other precinct captains I know very few will make it through their lists either (and some have not even started).

I think there are 5 ways RP could finish 3rd or above in Iowa:
1. The anecdotal readings I have gotten have been wrong (possible).
2. Cedar Rapids is significantly lagging other cities in the state (very possible).
3. There are above 5,000 Iowa caucus goers who are not in the phone book and only have a cell phone (not likely based on iowa meetup group size, iowans on ronpaulforms.com, etc).
4. The other precinct captains are working harder then I am (possible).
5. The Project: Iowa door to door campaign + letter writing campaign are going to really translate into an additional 5,000+ votes (possible).

With the race as wide as it is, I bet 3rd place will take only need 10,000 total votes.

i agree.......

 

[SteveMartin]

We all know most voters won't seriously consider any candidate that the polls and media have ranked so lowly as to be a poor contender. That is the single most formidable logjam restraining voters from more seriously considering Ron Paul. While that won't be an issue after IA & NH primaries, until then it is our greatest restraint on growth, and even more votes there, and greatest opportunity awaiting us if it's broken through.

This ad below was designed especially to help do so, and will be running shortly in the top dozen Iowa newspapers! (And, top half-dozen New Hampshire newspapers, too!) Details of which/when/where will be posted shortly at http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=63899

​

If you share our enthusiasm for the potential of this ad strategy we also invite you to consider running it yourself in smaller or community or shopper papers there, too. (Or, printed up as a handout, etc.) Just change up the bottom attribution line. Here's the pdf of it, that prints up better and is what newspapers want, shown in actual 5.75" x 6" size...
http://www.ki4u.com/pollsad.pdf

Enjoy!

- Shane

AND...you can help us purchase REAL, TRUTHFUL, UNBIASED POLLS before NH, if you go to www.TheFreedomNetwork.US and Chipin towards the $7800 needed. We have collected $910 so far, and need the rest by 1/4/08.

Thanks everyone!

 

[hotfuzz]

Problems?

We all know most voters won't seriously consider any candidate that the polls and media have ranked so lowly as to be a poor contender. That is the single most formidable logjam restraining voters from more seriously considering Ron Paul. While that won't be an issue after IA & NH primaries, until then it is our greatest restraint on growth, and even more votes there, and greatest opportunity awaiting us if it's broken through.

This ad below was designed especially to help do so, and will be running shortly in the top dozen Iowa newspapers! (And, top half-dozen New Hampshire newspapers, too!) Details of which/when/where will be posted shortly at http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?t=63899

​

If you share our enthusiasm for the potential of this ad strategy we also invite you to consider running it yourself in smaller or community or shopper papers there, too. (Or, printed up as a handout, etc.) Just change up the bottom attribution line. Here's the pdf of it, that prints up better and is what newspapers want, shown in actual 5.75" x 6" size...
http://www.ki4u.com/pollsad.pdf

Enjoy!

- Shane

Doesn't this ad run into some legal problems? Given that it's clearly in support of Dr. Paul but not paid for by a PAC, committee, or 527??

 

[MsDoodahs]

Individuals are still allowed to spend their own money to express their own views. For now.