My sobering analysis on iowa, from Cedar Rapids

your not taking in to consideration that most people today only use cell phones... keep that chin up!
 
If Paul comes in fifth in Iowa, it will be deemed a failure.
If Paul comes in fourth, it will be deemed neither a success nor a failure.
If Paul comes in third, it will be deemed a success.
If Paul comes in second, it will be deemed an amazing success.
If Paul comes in first, martial law will be declared.

I'll be very, very happy with third place, but wouldn't be surprised if Paul comes in fourth.
 
PledgeForPaul said:
I'm not trying to be a downer - but I don't think a 2nd or 1st place finish in Iowa is realistic. I think anyone who has done hundreds of Iowa phone calls or gone door to door in Iowa will agree with this.

Of people I have called in Cedar Rapids, at least 75% know nothing of Ron Paul beyond name recognition (but do have impressions of other candidates). Of the 25% that have some impression his views (true or false impressions), very few are planning to caucus for him (but I'm working on that!).

The raw stat from my precinct is, I have talked to about 350 people on the phone (from a phone list of just under 1,000 that I have dialed) and have had a total of 3 (T-H-R-E-E) people say they will vote or will probably vote for Ron Paul. The only way my precinct will get 10 votes for him is if these phone conversations have made a difference on people who already had another candidate in mind. I think this is possible, but talking to other precinct captains I know very few will make it through their lists either (and some have not even started).

I think there are 5 ways RP could finish 3rd or above in Iowa:
1. The anecdotal readings I have gotten have been wrong (possible).
2. Cedar Rapids is significantly lagging other cities in the state (very possible).
3. There are above 5,000 Iowa caucus goers who are not in the phone book and only have a cell phone (not likely based on iowa meetup group size, iowans on ronpaulforms.com, etc).
4. The other precinct captains are working harder then I am (possible).
5. The Project: Iowa door to door campaign + letter writing campaign are going to really translate into an additional 5,000+ votes (possible).

With the race as wide as it is, I bet 3rd place will take only need 10,000 total votes.
Click to expand...

If 10% of the 350 vote, then Paul has 3 of 35 or 9%.

Is it possible to send brochures/DVDs or email articles/videos to the undecideds?


http://hawks4ronpaul.blogspot.com/
 
Truth is elections here in Iowa often aren't won by how people vote in the bigger cities like CR or Des Moines. It's won by the people who live in smaller towns and cities throughout Iowa. People in the big cities have a horrible voter turnout. Per-capita people in rural areas are diehard voters. Don't get too discouraged either. People in Iowa this election are disenfranchised with the Republican party. We're going to see a wholesale slashing of the republican base here. Even diehard republicans may not show up to caucus because they might realize the chances of their candidate against the dems is pretty low. I think we could still surprise some folks here. Keep up the hard work and I will too.
 
Thank you guys for your hard work in Iowa. Don't give up. A third place finish would be huge!
 
I think we should emphasize that Ron Paul is an OB/GYN doctor who has made more than 4000 deliveries in his carrier, and is a 10 term Republican congressman. I was talking to my sister in-law yesterday, who is a nurse, and just found out that he is an OB/GYN doctor. This a major reason why she is going to vote for him. People still have respect for doctors.
 
Mastiff said:
I have a list of 500 people to call in Cedar Rapids. I don't have the stomach for it. My wife said she'd help call but now she's waffling. I sent an E-mail to the state HQ asking if some of the volunteers could help me out, but I haven't heard back.

The good news is that I have 7 people already in my precinct, so we're not totally stuck.

I'm considering a robo-call since I can call everyone in my precinct for about $50, but I'm not quite sure what it would say aside from "press 1 if you are a Paul supporter". This would let me ferret out any other supporters.
Click to expand...

Please... just get through the first one and its all downhill from there... i used to be the same way... this has to be done... it is these efforts that will guarantee us a good finish in the caucuses
 
Adamsa said:
The 2000 one? Because thats the one that will be more reliable, not 2004.
Click to expand...

yest its 2000...

Iowa is stuck in the middle of nowhere america and at this point its quite pathetic that they dont know who Paul is, seriously they are suppose to vote in a few all they need to do is look up on the internet to see who the candidates are...

I knew name recognition would be our downfall in Iowa those hicks are to dumb to look for information on their own and most probably are still on dial up...

I really think if we dont get top 3 in Iowa we might as well give up because the myth that he cant get elected will become reality when people see those results and people will not vote for him...

having said that , FUCK IOWA!

and wtf is the campaign doing in IOWA, I swear our biggest obstacle is an inept campaign not any opponent....
 
i would be happy to get 4th place.
assume huckabee wins romney 2nd rudy or fred 3rd. all that money romney spent in iowa would be wasted and he would be compared to steve forbes. huckabee has no chance in NH.

i am in Cedar Rapids (precinct 26) and i am also a bit worried. but we can hope for a big snow storm !
 
I don't know, bad weather with a combination of more supporters could snatch us a cheeky 3rd place.
 
The photos of Huck and Mitt raping two Ethiopian boys will be published on January 2nd.

Now, is there anyone here good with PhotoShop? ;)
 
FWIW...

All of my family know about RP
All of my wife's family know about RP
All of my family's friends know about RP
All of my friends know about RP
All of my friend's families know about RP
All of my clients know about RP
All of my neighbors know about RP
My Doctors know about RP
My wife's Doctors and Nurses know about RP
My wife's co-workers all know about RP
My wife's clients (Worldwide) know about RP

Granted we started back in May.

Door-to-door and cold calling are hard at first because it's contrary to human nature these days to make yourself an uninvited guest into a stranger's home. But, we have experience in these sorts of things and have developed a mindset that we have extremely valuable information that we're bringing to folks free of charge on our own unpaid time. We choose to do it because we are as concerned for our neighbors as we are for ourselves when it relates to the future of America.

I know from experience that you never know who will show up and be on your side. Sometimes the people who treat you the rudest become the staunchest supporters. Just planting that seed is the important task.

Thanks for the report from Iowa. Thanks for all of your hard work. It inspires me to do more.

Take a breather and get back to it. This week should be easier to talk to people because they typically wait until this point to play catch up as to whom to vote for.

Bosso
 
Why is it so hard to get through to Iowa?

They must be beaten down sheeple??


When I talk to people here in Nevada 95% of the people have heard of him and many are voting for him.

I still get the dreaded "do you really think he has a chance?"
but I say hell yea!! were are going to win!!
:)
 
If RP can get 3rd in Iowa....that'll be good enough

He'll get oodles of media coverage and things can only get better as more people get to hear about him! So don't lose heart!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

unknown
Iowa Supreme Fraud: should people be forced to pay for their public defender?
Replies
0
Views
237
unknown
unknown
PAF
Debate: Jacob Hornberger vs. Walter Block re: libertarianism and Israel
Replies
7
Views
779
PAF
PAF
pmbug
Rayhunter EFF anti-spying tool for cell phones
Replies
0
Views
55
pmbug
pmbug
PAF
Are Tariffs Good for American Workers?
Replies
11
Views
197
69360
6
Voluntarist
The 2026 Senate Campaigns Are Underway
Replies
2
Views
85
nikcers
nikcers
Back
Top