PledgeForPaul
Member
- Joined
- Nov 28, 2007
- Messages
- 232
I'm not trying to be a downer - but I don't think a 2nd or 1st place finish in Iowa is realistic. I think anyone who has done hundreds of Iowa phone calls or gone door to door in Iowa will agree with this.
Of people I have called in Cedar Rapids, at least 75% know nothing of Ron Paul beyond name recognition (but do have impressions of other candidates). Of the 25% that have some impression his views (true or false impressions), very few are planning to caucus for him (but I'm working on that!).
The raw stat from my precinct is, I have talked to about 350 people on the phone (from a phone list of just under 1,000 that I have dialed) and have had a total of 3 (T-H-R-E-E) people say they will vote or will probably vote for Ron Paul. The only way my precinct will get 10 votes for him is if these phone conversations have made a difference on people who already had another candidate in mind. I think this is possible, but talking to other precinct captains I know very few will make it through their lists either (and some have not even started).
I think there are 5 ways RP could finish 3rd or above in Iowa:
1. The anecdotal readings I have gotten have been wrong (possible).
2. Cedar Rapids is significantly lagging other cities in the state (very possible).
3. There are above 5,000 Iowa caucus goers who are not in the phone book and only have a cell phone (not likely based on iowa meetup group size, iowans on ronpaulforms.com, etc).
4. The other precinct captains are working harder then I am (possible).
5. The Project: Iowa door to door campaign + letter writing campaign are going to really translate into an additional 5,000+ votes (possible).
With the race as wide as it is, I bet 3rd place will take only need 10,000 total votes.
Of people I have called in Cedar Rapids, at least 75% know nothing of Ron Paul beyond name recognition (but do have impressions of other candidates). Of the 25% that have some impression his views (true or false impressions), very few are planning to caucus for him (but I'm working on that!).
The raw stat from my precinct is, I have talked to about 350 people on the phone (from a phone list of just under 1,000 that I have dialed) and have had a total of 3 (T-H-R-E-E) people say they will vote or will probably vote for Ron Paul. The only way my precinct will get 10 votes for him is if these phone conversations have made a difference on people who already had another candidate in mind. I think this is possible, but talking to other precinct captains I know very few will make it through their lists either (and some have not even started).
I think there are 5 ways RP could finish 3rd or above in Iowa:
1. The anecdotal readings I have gotten have been wrong (possible).
2. Cedar Rapids is significantly lagging other cities in the state (very possible).
3. There are above 5,000 Iowa caucus goers who are not in the phone book and only have a cell phone (not likely based on iowa meetup group size, iowans on ronpaulforms.com, etc).
4. The other precinct captains are working harder then I am (possible).
5. The Project: Iowa door to door campaign + letter writing campaign are going to really translate into an additional 5,000+ votes (possible).
With the race as wide as it is, I bet 3rd place will take only need 10,000 total votes.
