My Objective Prediction

[Melchior]

If the current trend continues:

- Mitt Romney will win the nomination, and we'll see him running against whoever the Democrats nominate.

- Ron Paul will make political history the way Ross Perot, Barry Goldwater, Ralph Nader and other candidates outside of the mainstream are now household names.

The basis for my opinion; Mitt Romney is gaining more momentum. Giuliani and McCain are bigger names, but they keep losing to Mitt Romney, and by chance he might get nominated. The results of primary elections can be pretty random and sometimes the more unpredictable or out of place choice wins.

Ron Paul however is being mentioned in places I didn't expect (like the View), and the general response is that he is "interesting" and "different." Once people have a taste of him, whatever their opinion, they definitely remember him. Democrats sure are warming up to him, whether that's a good thing or not I don't know yet. But whatever happens I believe he will be remembered.

This is all based on the hypothetical premise that Ron Paul doesn't win, by the way, which I'm becoming more optimistic about lately.

 

[NMCB3]

Well your witnessing the political smear machine in action. Ron is not the first to be attacked and he wont be the last. No wonder very few honest people run for office, who wants to be put through that. Our country suffers accordingly.

 

[qednick]

There's a major difference between things today and in previous elections. BLOGGING! Even 4 years ago, not many people could've told you what a "blog" was. Now, everybody is doing it. There's also MySpace and YouTube. Not to mention so more and more people are on the net now. Geez, even my 63 year old mom just got on the bandwaggon.

The point I'm trying to get across is that those previous underdogs were still largely relying on whatever MSM coverage they could get back then. Things are different now.

Also, as a footnote, it's a bit disheartening to see an RP supporter already resigning him or herself to defeat. You will never succeed at anything if you don't even think you can.

 

[Melchior]

Well your witnessing the political smear machine in action. Ron is not the first to be attacked and he wont be the last. No wonder very few honest people run for office, who wants to be put through that. Our country suffers accordingly.

The smear attempt against Ron Paul seems to be backfiring.

 

[Melchior]

Also, as a footnote, it's a bit disheartening to see an RP supporter already resigning him or herself to defeat. You will never succeed at anything if you don't even think you can.

I'm not resigning to defeat, I'm still voting for him and actively showing my support. Also, this thread is just a prediction if Ron Paul doesn't win.

There is nothing wrong with making an objective analysis.

It hasn't even begun though, it's very early in the election, who knows what will happen. I couldn't have predicted the last few days.

 

[JoshLowry]

This is all based on the hypothetical premise that Ron Paul doesn't win...

"Go fetch the tar and feathers, we're gonna have us a lil' demonstration."

 

[mdh]

I actually think that among the R's, Romney has a lot lower chance of winning at the generals than Giuliani, McCain, or even Paul.

Romney's carrying a lot of the same "opinion flapping" baggage that Kerry had, and the southern baptist voter-base that's been known to carry the R's in some general elections is likely to be just as unforgiving when he starts getting torn up over those issues. McCain has a relatively clean image, and he's a lot more palettable to moderates than anyone else. Even if he doesn't win the big southern baptist vote, he would pull enough cross-voters and moderates who otherwise may not vote to pull it off. Giuliani's got plenty of baggage too, but I think the majority of it can be swept aside when he pulls out the "America's 9/11 mayor" card. That card seems to play well, even today, amongst many Republicans. McCain and Giuliani are both pretty good for the 'status quo', too, so those that stand to profit from 'business as usual' won't hesitate to pump them full of cash in time for the generals.
Ron Paul's got a much more uphill battle if any of those factions plan ahead in case he wins the primaries. I'd bet they won't, though, and the sailing wouldn't be too rough if he scores the R nomination. Ron Paul also appeals to a lot of people who haven't voted in a long time, though. If the entire Libertarian Party, Constitution Party, et al cadre turned out, that could be the clincher for us. Part of this strategy, sad as it is to say, involves getting candidates from those parties to ask their voters to vote for Paul in the primaries if possible, and in the generals if he wins. That takes a lot of humility, but I personally feel it's for the best.

The Democrats have a real dilemma here, though. There're enough closet racists in America today that Obama's got a massively up hill battle if he wins. A lot of these folks make up the voter base that the labor unions loyally turn out to the polls for the Democrats on a regular basis. Hillary appeals by and large to leftists/socialists, and alienates moderates left and right, but the vast majority of leftist/progressive/socialist female voters don't like her because of how she dealt with her husband's infidelity. They want a woman, sure - but a strong one, not one who meakly puts up with Billy-boy's antics in the oral office.
In the end, there are three types of leftist/progressive voters - the labor union followers, the coastal elites, and the kids. The kids don't bother to vote anyway by and large, so the other two are the groups that really win elections for them.

 

[mdh]

There's a major difference between things today and in previous elections. BLOGGING! Even 4 years ago, not many people could've told you what a "blog" was. Now, everybody is doing it. There's also MySpace and YouTube. Not to mention so more and more people are on the net now. Geez, even my 63 year old mom just got on the bandwaggon.

4 years ago, Howard Dean made the mistake of overestimating the internet. We can't fall into that trap if we want to get anywhere.
There need to be feet on the street. And faces on TV. And voices on the radio. As we move up towards the primaries, I'd like to get some organized callins to radio shows going in this area, with a concerted effort, we can at least raise some eyebrows of some folks on coffee/smoke break.

 

[MsDoodahs]

There's a major difference between things today and in previous elections. BLOGGING! Even 4 years ago, not many people could've told you what a "blog" was. Now, everybody is doing it. There's also MySpace and YouTube. Not to mention so more and more people are on the net now. Geez, even my 63 year old mom just got on the bandwaggon.

The point I'm trying to get across is that those previous underdogs were still largely relying on whatever MSM coverage they could get back then. Things are different now.

HERE HERE!

The establishment (politicians both dem and GOP, and the mainsleazemedia) have been taken by surprise, and by storm, by the strength and speed with which Dr. Paul's supporters have deflected their every effort.

They believe they are losing control.

They have yet to realize ... they've already lost it.

 

[Melchior]

"Go fetch the tar and feathers, we're gonna have us a lil' demonstration."

*runs away*

 

[Melchior]

4 years ago, Howard Dean made the mistake of overestimating the internet. We can't fall into that trap if we want to get anywhere.
There need to be feet on the street. And faces on TV. And voices on the radio. As we move up towards the primaries, I'd like to get some organized callins to radio shows going in this area, with a concerted effort, we can at least raise some eyebrows of some folks on coffee/smoke break.

Damn, I forgot who said it. But someone as a rebuttal to similar to what you are saying, mentioned Howard Dean is now the chairman of the DNC. Point being even without winning the nomination progress can be made.

Something will happen to the Republican party, mark my words, maybe a separation or a divide, more hopefully a reformation... Ron Paul will help bring it along.

 

[mdh]

Totally, BUT... that doesn't mean we shouldn't be aiming for the top. The higher we aim, the better our chances of landing anywhere but the bottom.

 

[tnvoter]

Don't worry about this. It's May, and Ron Paul is getting the nomination.

 

[Melchior]

Totally, BUT... that doesn't mean we shouldn't be aiming for the top. The higher we aim, the better our chances of landing anywhere but the bottom.

I completely agree, setting high goals works.

That's what I've always said about space exploration.

 

[aravoth]

I think Ron Paul has a real chance of getting the nomination. Seriously. We've got a ways to go. The fact remains that we have the drive, the knowhow, and the determination to get his name out. I have a feeling that the primary race is going to be a major upset for the neo-cons. I'm getting lectured about how wonderful ron paul is by my ENTIRE family of democrats. and My Republican father is literally frothing at the mouth over this guy. Don't forget most of the Base never votes becuase most canidates are crooks and liars, this is not the case with ron paul.

 

[zMtLlC]

You just wanna cut 'n run? Huh?

 

[Hawaii Libertarian]

Worst Landslide Loss Ever

If the Republicans nominate a pro-Iraq war candidate, they will endure the worst landslide loss in Presidential election history.

 

[qednick]

If the Republicans nominate a pro-Iraq war candidate, they will endure the worst landslide loss in Presidential election history.

I live in military town and we have tons of military friends, both active and retired and from all political spectrum. Although everyone seems to have slightly different opinions regarding the war, the one common denominator is that they would like their friends home.