this is kind of good news, and shows how soft support Romney has.
but he can still pump his own money anytime he wants since the Presidency is at stake.
about the Anti-Romney strategy, I dont know how much longer it will take for the people to realize that Paul is the only Real conservative in the race and start voting for him ?
Maine was a great chance to win and we lost by less than 200 votes, so the not-winning meme is still there.
Initially I thought we had a good chance in Washington, but now the polls( which are not that accurate for caucuses) seem to show otherwise.
What are the winnable states on Super Tuesday ? And what IF we dont win any on that day too ?
Things are very hard to call in this race, the polls are all over the place and the methodologies are less representative than they have been in other cycles (because the electorate is behaving in unprecedented ways), I could ramble on with the "know one can know for sure" disclaimer but I think we all know the drill so I move this along.
Based on the information I have the two most likely wins on Super Tuesday, as far as I can tell, are Idaho, and North Dakota.
My conclusions in both cases are less derived from any polls (I honestly haven't been watching them that much at this point because of how skewed they've been this cycle) but from donation information and "ear to the ground" reports coming out of the region.
In both cases my greatest concern is the
Get Out The Vote effort, in short will it be successful enough. If we can get the majority of our supporters to the caucus and involved they should in essence be a lock but getting people there and involved has been shown to be a challenge in this election.
That's the 'straw poll' side of the win, the delegate side is if anything more optimistic however there's a stumbling block there as well and that's in short "more of the same" meaning the same type of things we've faced from party "insiders" since 2008. If those who are getting into position to be delegates have done their homework and have the proper support then we'll blow through those roadblocks if not we could have the whole rug pulled out from under us (much like NV in '08).
Super Tuesday Sates
Broad strokes, if the elections were held today: (see list for special notations and more specific Paul considerations)
Southern states lean Santa/Newt
Northern states are more Romney territory
ID & ND as mentioned above.
Alaska
Georgia
Idaho
Massachusetts
North Dakota
Ohio -- Ohio is a battle ground state in more ways than one and without a decisive front runner could be anybodies ball game.
Oklahoma
Tennessee -- There's some grassroots talk about ways to pull off a victory here, sounds promising but I'd need to see more info before I give it too much weight
Vermont
Virginia -- Paul vs Romney heads up contest, taking this will be an uphill battle unless there are Newt/Santa voters backing us to take down Romney but it might happen Romney isn't beloved there either.
The big wild card is the "anyone but Obama" and to a somewhat lessor extent the "anyone but Romney" votes. They are the most fickle this election and in state by state polling the most likely to not finally decided until just before they vote, they're also between ~23-47% of the electorate depending on state and as such whoever picks up a majority of them will gain a major boost to their numbers. If Santa or Newt drop before Super Tuesday I think it helps Paul (at least on balance) but I don't know how likely that is to actually happen. All things considered March is going to be a very interesting month indeed.
Romney's cash problem will go away once the GOP grudgingly accepts him as the nominee. The Adelsons out there will start giving to him.
